ATL: IKE Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Max Mayfield just stated "We need to keep a close eye on any slow downs with Ike and the models tonight with the 5am advisory will provide crucial information as they will have ingested critical information from recon today. Also noted, that ALL computer models forecasted a typhoon to miss the phillipines early this year with a turn to the north which never materialized and they took a direct hit" Exerpt from the local special with max at 8pm.

thanks for posting that. Not very comforting for those in Miami, but I am glad he is watching this so closely. I think everyone will be glad when it is past there latitude~

When you think about it they only have to be 100 miles off to the south to really have a substantial change on south florida. Average track error at three days is.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml?

[MBryant]

Staring at a montior and wobble watching too long can cause that....don't worry, i am sure you only have one vortex in your eye.


sorry....couldn't resist.... ;p

That's OK. I used to only believe what I saw, but after being fooled repeatedly, I now need additional verification.

Am I imagining two vortexes in the eye?

[jinftl]

a slow down now could also mean ike is further east than he was forecast to be when the weakeness that is forecast to develop in the ridge pushes him wnw or nw. A nw or wnw turn further east than forecast puts florida in a bad positon since he would be se of florida as opposed to south or southwest of florida's longitude if he kept chugging along to the west.

a slow down now could give that front a chance to make it further into the gulf by the end of the forecast period. GFS sees it there already, shunting Ike to north central gulf cuz of it. Ero sees it, but doesn't think it will get there in time to affect Ike's landfall. But that is if Ike maintains steady speed. This slowing may through off the timing of the front, for both of those models.

I can't wait for the GIV info to know more! aargh this stuff drives me crazy! -but I love it! As long as people don't get hurt.

[stormy1970al]

http://www.nbc15online.com/news/local/s ... b27d621de2

Well this is what on NBC 15 website tonight. People were already buying water and gas cans again at Walmart when I went inside to buy the girls their snacks and lunches for school next week.

[cpdaman]

Wow...I'm not too sure but I just looked at the water vapor loop for the West Atlantic and it appears to me that Ike COULD possibly make it as far South as the Caribbean Sea. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html You can clearly see the high pressure squeezing down on him from the North and it actually has become evident to the west and Northwest of him. I think that this is partly causing the slowdown in forward speed. Right now the big Bermuda H has become Florida's best friend...

SFT

ya if i was staying on the NW coast of haiti i would be weary of a slow down and a few wobbles SW

but don't thank the high just yet, if he slows alot that would be a problemo

[Cyclenall]

Wasn't there suppose to be AF303 in there right now? What happened to it?

[Weatherfreak000]

South shift is absolutely guaranteed at 10PM. Let's see what the NHC says..

[Sanibel]

I'd estimate Grand Turk will have the eye pass over it. Grand Turk is going to get hit by Ike the hardest.

[Stormcenter]

South shift is absolutely guaranteed at 10PM. Let's see what the NHC says..

Do you believe that's good or bad for the N. Central GOM?

[robbielyn]

baynews9 met states that the ridge is currently keeping ike from increasing in latitude and that the trough in the northeast would normally pick it up but then the ridge builds in west enough and slows ike down so that the second trough misses that and thats why it will spin in the gulf and then will head nw toward la but take a sharp curve to the mobile area. that ridge will be floridas saving grace but whoa for mobile or la.

[physicx07]

http://www.nbc15online.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=61960d87-0680-452c-a5a2-d4b27d621de2

Well this is what on NBC 15 website tonight. People were already buying water and gas cans again at Walmart when I went inside to buy the girls their snacks and lunches for school next week.

I'm very glad to hear that. People seem to be very aware of what's going on now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW. I think the Southward component of motion might be almost over, and a West or even West-Northwest motion may be about to commence. I'd still pay attention in South Florida.


I could be completely wrong, however.

[stormy1970al]

baynews9 met states that the ridge is currently keeping ike from increasing in latitude and that the trough in the northeast would normally pick it up but then the ridge builds in west enough and slows ike down so that the second trough misses that and thats why it will spin in the gulf and then will head nw toward la but take a sharp curve to the mobile area. that ridge will be floridas saving grace but whoa for mobile or la.

Could you post the link to baynews 9 please. I would like to see that since I live in the Mobile area and I am very concern about where Ike is going since several people see to think it could hit near my area. Thank you!

[robbielyn]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW. I think the Southward component of motion might be almost over, and a West or even West-Northwest motion may be about to commence. I'd still pay attention in South Florida.


I could be completely wrong, however.

Can you post a pic to back up your suggestion please?

[Weatherfreak000]

South shift is absolutely guaranteed at 10PM. Let's see what the NHC says..

Do you believe that's good or bad for the N. Central GOM?

Well...personally I don't have a clue. There are multiple scenarios on the map right now and everyone in the Gulf has a chance at this storm as I see it.

I personally believe in the Trough picking Ike up...so the farther west Ike gets in the GOM...the worse for that area it will be.

[Stormcenter]

baynews9 met states that the ridge is currently keeping ike from increasing in latitude and that the trough in the northeast would normally pick it up but then the ridge builds in west enough and slows ike down so that the second trough misses that and thats why it will spin in the gulf and then will head nw toward la but take a sharp curve to the mobile area. that ridge will be floridas saving grace but whoa for mobile or la.

It's all about timing. I say AL. eastward.

[Jevo]

South shift is absolutely guaranteed at 10PM. Let's see what the NHC says..

I shall have the crow ready for you or I sir..... not a good thing to say "absolutley guarnteed" on this board unless you have a super computer in your house running models

[Vortex]

Ike has slowed his forward speed considerably the last 3-5 hours..

[robbielyn]

baynews9 met states that the ridge is currently keeping ike from increasing in latitude and that the trough in the northeast would normally pick it up but then the ridge builds in west enough and slows ike down so that the second trough misses that and thats why it will spin in the gulf and then will head nw toward la but take a sharp curve to the mobile area. that ridge will be floridas saving grace but whoa for mobile or la.

Could you post the link to baynews 9 please. I would like to see that since I live in the Mobile area and I am very concern about where Ike is going since several people see to think it could hit near my area. Thank you!

Sure baynews9.com Now I got the info off the graphic he should of one of the models when he was on air. i am not sure which one. the colors of the model was fl colors yellow lime green orange turquoise blue

[stormy1970al]

baynews9 met states that the ridge is currently keeping ike from increasing in latitude and that the trough in the northeast would normally pick it up but then the ridge builds in west enough and slows ike down so that the second trough misses that and thats why it will spin in the gulf and then will head nw toward la but take a sharp curve to the mobile area. that ridge will be floridas saving grace but whoa for mobile or la.

Could you post the link to baynews 9 please. I would like to see that since I live in the Mobile area and I am very concern about where Ike is going since several people see to think it could hit near my area. Thank you!

Sure baynews9.com Now I got the info off the graphic he should of one of the models when he was on air. i am not sure which one. the colors of the model was fl colors yellow lime green orange turquoise blue

Thank you.