ATL: IKE Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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Re: Re:

#4001 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:04 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well yippy ... more mountains


What, mountains ? What are you guys talking about ? :?:


i was just being weird and ws dreading having to track ike through the mountains...

casue the circulation is going to get disrupted and be an overall pain in the rear..as we have found out with fay and gustav already this year, and what is it with Cuba geez... Cuba is going to start thinking we are somehow making the hurricanes go to them .. lol
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4002 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:05 pm

so we go from Ike plowing through SE Florida to Ike being a possible Western GOM issue...

Well logically we should soon seeing Ike heading towards Mexico and the Yucatan...

Unbelievable..as I said, I don't even think SE Florida is going to get one drop of rain from Ike...
and look back at my posts..from Friday....

I said South Florida would be out of the cone by the weekend.

and we are now :)
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4003 Postby meteorologyman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:06 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

Ike is still moving SW this thing is now over forecast point, if it doesn't move west soon this is going to hit tip of Haiti and may loop around Cuba and not hitting Cuba until it nears the Gulf
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4004 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:06 pm

Innotech wrote:St Croix?


Prob. I am using google Earth and don't have the names of the places on. Point Udall is one of the places marked on it thats all I know.

Edit: After doing some research on where Point Udall is located yes it is St Croix!
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Aric Dunn
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#4005 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:08 pm

they should just fly out of florida
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Innotech
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4006 Postby Innotech » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:08 pm

Jagno wrote:Folks, it goes deeper than that. My son works for Citgo and they are having a difficult time getting crude in through the Gulf pipelines, let alone the ports getting their imports with all of this tropical activity.

No crude = nothing to refine into gas/diesel = empty pumps

During Gustav they had to buy crude from another company locally to have something to refine. The president agreed to release some from the national reserves but without any of it being replaced it is becoming a great concern. With the intensity and direction of Ike across the entire Gulf this is not going to turn out good for anyone in the nation let alone those in its' sights.

thats exactly what I was saying a few posts above. the situation looks grim.
so far the Mobil chalmette refinery and the Motiva refinery seem to be down and out. We are still pulling out of Meraux though.
Placid in Port allen and Exxon mobil BR seem to be up and running but allocation was cut. Its a tricky situation.
Last edited by Innotech on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4007 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:09 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
6SpeedTA95 wrote:
hurrican19 wrote:My cousin works offshore on one of the oil rigs, he just went back yesterday after Gustav, and they got on the rig, then today, they already flew them off the rig and told them to go home due to Ike. He's loving it, because he's worked 1 day and will be getting paid for 2 weeks.

Good for him indeed, but bad for the companies that are paying the workers and have to pay for infrastructure damage.

But thats life and part of the risk of drilling in the water.


Some people missing work on those rigs and are not getting paid :( People have Bills you know. This is definately not good.

I'd like to know who's missing work and not getting paid, thats really quite crappy of the companies to do that. I know the company I work for pays people at their normal wage+ normal OT for missing work in case of storm evacs.
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Re:

#4008 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:they should just fly out of florida


Well right up until this afternoon Florida was still with in the cone so they wouldn't be flying out of some where where the storm could hit. So I think thats why they aren't flying from Florida.
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Re:

#4009 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:11 pm

Windy wrote:Man, if Ike misses Cuba landfall by even a smidge to the south, he's really going to feel those mountains.

Who would have thought a stay in GITMO could have been any less appealing?


Hm? I'm probably misunderstanding but if he missed Cuba landfall he would spend time over water, thus staying more organized.
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Re: Re:

#4010 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:11 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:they should just fly out of florida


Well right up until this afternoon Florida was still with in the cone so they wouldn't be flying out of some where where the storm could hit. So I think thats why they aren't flying from Florida.


right.. but they fly out of tampa sometimes
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4011 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:so we go from Ike plowing through SE Florida to Ike being a possible Western GOM issue...

Well logically we should soon seeing Ike heading towards Mexico and the Yucatan...

Unbelievable..as I said, I don't even think SE Florida is going to get one drop of rain from Ike...
and look back at my posts..from Friday....

I said South Florida would be out of the cone by the weekend.

and we are now :)


Pretty sure you were -removed-. Certainly don't mean offense by that, it's just I don't think you made any revolutionary prediction. :wink:
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Re: Always entertaining

#4012 Postby physicx07 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:14 pm

stormchazer wrote:Always entertaining thoughts from Accuweather.....

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=6


Gee, that wasn't exactly informative. Nice try on Accuweather's part... lol :roll:
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#4013 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:16 pm

Image

The first direct victims. The Turks and Caicos.
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4014 Postby D3m3NT3DVoRT3X » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:17 pm

Image

I Know its Gustav but ya get the point :D
Last edited by D3m3NT3DVoRT3X on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#4015 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:17 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

The first direct victims. The Turks and Caicos.

ouch :(
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4016 Postby physicx07 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:18 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
Sabanic wrote:
TampaFl wrote:Not sure how it can go into the Central GOM with this steering flow. I know it will change but it will have to be a large change in this steering flow to verify, IMHO. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Image


Then where would Ike go??


According to that it looks like Ike would go south across Cuba into the Caribbean across the YP and then make final landfall along the Texas Mexico Boarder

Edit: However like I said the Highs are forecast to shift which would shift the steering pattern.


Since it's expected to shift east, I would expect it to possibly slow down a bit and continue WSW, maybe a little more SW in the very near term.
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#4017 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:23 pm

I know people don't like overanalysis of wobbles, and I usually don't either and understand it, but honestly, I think with Ike every wobble could have large butterfly effect type repercussions. And it could be a wobble but right now Ike does look like he's moving farther south than forecasted.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4018 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:34 pm

I a a bit surprised that the NHC has only a tropical storm warning for the north coast of Haiti. They must be pretty confident that not even a close approach (say 50 miles) is likely.

meteorologyman wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Ike is still moving SW this thing is now over forecast point, if it doesn't move west soon this is going to hit tip of Haiti and may loop around Cuba and not hitting Cuba until it nears the Gulf
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html[/quote]
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4019 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:34 pm

I heard from friends that still work in LA that the channel at Port Fourchon silted up during Gustav, and only shallow draft boats, not the big supply boats can get out, so there is still some residual effect in Louisiana.


This won't help, of course.
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Re: Re:

#4020 Postby HarlequinBoy » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:35 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well yippy ... more mountains


What, mountains ? What are you guys talking about ? :?:


I'm confused too.
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