New convection develops at invest 97L...

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Convection is fireing up arround 97L's estimated low center. Since last couple of hours, satellite images and loops indicate that deep convection has started to develop over the center of the 40W wave axis. If this area of convection persist and grow, it may be indicative of the beguining of a development stage for the mid Atlantic tropical wave. I know I have only seen a couple of Sat pics and would be wise look further but the area of 40W into 60W has been favorable for tropical development so far this season.(Claudette started it's development pattern overthere, gaining strong convection as it moved into the Caribbean south of Hispaniola where it was classified as a tropical storm)

Of course we have to give it more time and see a couple more satellite pictures to see if this convection persist, grow and to be sure that the wave is getting better organization, starting a development pattern or if it's just a blow up of convection.

I could be wrong, but at this moment...for me and just for me...I think this is the beguining of the wave comeback.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html(Click over the wave to zoom in and see the latest and updated sat picture or click animate above of this picture then click over the wave to see an updated moviloop)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ATL_97L.INVEST_ssmi_ir1km_bw_full.html

Cycloman

[cycloneye]

Agree that we have to give it more time to see if his is only a burst firering or it is going to persist and develop into a TD.But compared to yesterday this morning looks more healthy and as it moves more west it will encounter wamer waters so Cycloman,Ola,storms.pr,janice from here in Puerto Rico we have to watch it very closely because we may have to deal with whatever this system will be a wave,a TD or a TS I think that the islands are going to be threatened by this in any form.And down the road for the US it is too early to say now if someplace in the US coastline will be affected.

[Portastorm]

Cycloman, those are some great images! Thanks for the links.

Little doubt now that 97L is getting its act together. Will watch with great interest.

Portastorm

[chadtm80]

I agree... Looking better, but still has a long way to go..

[wxman57]

I estimate another 24-36 hours to develop a circulation and about 1-2 days for the NHC to ignore it before upgrading it. So I think we'll have TD 6 on Tuesday as it's heading into the islands.

[Air Force Met]

I agree...this looks like a northern Islands, Bahamahs and SE US storm.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Ok Airforcemet and Wxman57! WXman57 mentioned a TD as it head into the islands, and Airforcemet said the northern islands before the Bahamas and US. Do you mean for us overhere?? Which way you think this could affect us? Do you think we could have a TD or a TS next Tuesday to Wednesday roaring in our vecinity? Your expertise and good forecasts could be very useful for me at this moment. Please analyse our situation

[Toni - 574]

I agree...this looks like a northern Islands, Bahamahs and SE US storm.

Thanks guys for all of your input. I find your thoughts and comments to be very interesting. If 97l does develope, and it is looking more and more by the minute like she is going to, then what do you see in the future that will influence her track. Since she is so far south right now, what is forcast to change that would bring her to the Bahama area? I know that alot will depend on her intensity. Comments from anyone would be appreciated. I need some food for thought here! :popcorn: