ATL: IKE Discussion

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Lost a lot of its cold cloud tops in the last few hours. Interesting.

Its however starting to regain the cold cloud tops around lower half of the eye.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looks like based on recon data it is now going through a RWC. Meaning it is weaking at a quick rate.

Theres nothing in recon that would suggest a ERC yet. Theres no 2nd wind maxima, there is no mention of concentric eyewalls, or anything like that that would tell me its going through a ERC or will be starting one with in the next few hours

I changed it to RWC=Rapid weaking cycle, it is the opposite of RIC. Sorry...

This is because the northeast quad had 8 knots lower winds, and the pressure appears based on EXTR to be 3-4 millibars higher. Of course it is not offical.

The last VDM of the mission before this one found 115kts winds in the Northeast quad. The winds now being reported in the Northeast quad are roughly 120kts thats 5kts higher then last pass through the Northeast quad.

[Nexus]

will make the curve

Yeah, looks like NHC may have bit a little too hard on the southern cuba solution trend with it's 2AM track, putting a lot of weight on the GFS diving south. Ike's southern eye wall has been hugging 21N for 7 hours now, lets see if they come back up in more agreement with the hurricane models at 5AM.

[jinftl]

I am a dork but seeing the reporting station in the turks & caicos currently reporting sustained winds of 58 mph and gusts to 70 mph...and that was at 4:20 am....14 minutes ago..totally 'brought me back' to idea that stepping away from speculation can be just as fascinating sometimes....but it is human nature to take an interest, even if it is days or a week away...to a potential threat, esp.to an area that is all to familiar with this....and to want answers, guarantees if something 'big' is going to effect your world.

I pray for the safety of all those in his path, no model needed in the t&c right now....hard to imagine....not even that far away from florida in terms of miles....thank goodness not in heading as well.

As we saw with Gustav when he didn't regain anything near his pre-cuba landfall strength while traversing 88 degree water to louisiana...it will depend on how much disruption to the storms core takes place over land...if there is any shear present. No lack of warm water for sure....i guess you could say that is necessary, but not sufficient for strengthening. That said, it would seem a more likely scenario than not.

It is what happens...where Ike goes...how strong he is...in the short term that really should be an interesting thing to watch...how much of cuba does he interact with and what does that do to him.

So much can happen between now and the Gulf...it is grueling, but it could be 5+ days till we know with confidence. Plus alot of harm could be done in the interim wherever he decides to go next. Turks & Caicos got brutalized tonight.

You are absloutely right. I guess that I was getting a little ahead of the game and questioning the "what if's" about something that is up to 5 days in the future.

My thoughts and prayers have been and will continue to be with anyone and everyone who has been and will be in the path of this horrendous storm.

Thanks,
~Nikki~

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Lowest Pressure Location (Pass #1): 2108N 07136W (Lowest Pressure: 944.8mb)
Lowest Pressure Location (Pass #2): 2108N 07157W (Lowest Pressure: 946.0mb)

Hurricane Ike Highest winds:

NorthEast: 120kts
NorthWest: 117kts
SouthWest: 094kts
SouthEast: 105kts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NorthEast:
NorthWest: 114kts
SouthWest:
SouthEast:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wind Field Profile (60kts +):

NorthEast: 106.24 Miles from center
NorthWest: 116.75 Miles from center
SouthWest: 39.33 Miles from center
SouthEast: 44.06miles from center

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 121 knots in the northeast quad, the recon plane was at 700 millibars=.9 reduce. That is 108.9 knots. This will very likely be down graded to a 110 knot cat3 at 5am.

[Tom8]

[Brent]

[Nexus]

Looks like they are holding at Cat4:

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM
...EAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE
MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

[quote="jinftl"]I am a dork but seeing the reporting station in the turks & caicos currently reporting sustained winds of 58 mph and gusts to 70 mph...and that was at 4:20 am....14 minutes ago..totally 'brought me back' to idea that stepping away from speculation can be just as fascinating sometimes....but it is human nature to take an interest, even if it is days or a week away...to a potential threat, esp.to an area that is all to familiar with this....and to want answers, guarantees if something 'big' is going to effect your world.

I pray for the safety of all those in his path, no model needed in the t&c right now....hard to imagine....not even that far away from florida in terms of miles....thank goodness not in heading as well.[quote]



Well, if you're a dork, then I am too so, we can be dorks together!

I'm really not as concerned about how Ike will affect my area as much as I am the possibilities that have arisen for the central gulf to Texas areas right now. Especially central GOM, since they just had to deal with Gustav so recently. Another storm in that area could be a bit demoralizing to those poor folks. I know that I would probably fall apart emotionally if I had to face 2 storms back to back!

I can't even imagine how the people of Haiti and Cuba feel after this past few weeks!

~Nikki~

[Nexus]

From the 5AM discussion:

THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS
TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST
EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE
LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON
THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

[Nexus]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Latest image doesn't look like a cat-4 hurricane to me. Any ideas on why it's rapidly weakening?

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Latest image doesn't look like a cat-4 hurricane to me. Any ideas on why it's rapidly weakening?

Its not any more. Deep convection is returning around the eye.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest image doesn't look like a cat-4 hurricane to me. Any ideas on why it's rapidly weakening?

Hati to its south

[KWT]

Yeah Haiti many well be just having a slight effect on the system, still got deep convection around the eyewall and I still think its probably onmthe lower end of a cat-4...

Also that track has really changed, that bend west is really a bad sign for those in Texas...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How does 121 knots at 700 millibars=115 knots? I thought it was 121*.9=108.9 knots. That would be hard pressed to go 110 knots.

[Vortex]

Models have shifted a bit north overnight through 48...In fact GFDN now keeps just north of the cuban coast and nears the lower Keys. NAM also remains consistent for the 2nd run keeping N of the cuban coast. These implications would be huge in terms of intensity.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yeah Haiti many well be just having a slight effect on the system, still got deep convection around the eyewall and I still think its probably onmthe lower end of a cat-4...

Also that track has really changed, that bend west is really a bad sign for those in Texas...

True, but the NHC track takes Ike over Cuba for a little over 24 hrs. By then, he could be a deprssion.
But a track like the NGFDL would have him only slightly weaken.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html