ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Possibly that will be the case, it doesn't matter the track it takes now from the NHC is easily long enough for this to get upto 3/4 again. We shall see though but conditions are very good in the gulf and so we should see some good strengthening again...

How weak does it get over Cuba, I'm not sure depends on what exact track that Ike takes, the thing to note is the NHC is to the south of the guidence still, most models have this getting close to the coast.

[jlauderdal]

Latest image doesn't look like a cat-4 hurricane to me. Any ideas on why it's rapidly weakening?

please dont use IR to guesstimate wind speed or pressure, this could be a reorganizing to a 5 or weakening or just standard fluctuations, we wont know for another few hours.

[jinftl]

Reporting station in Turks & Caicos currently reporting sustained winds of 53 mph, gust to 71 mph~

http://english.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2


That is gentle compared to the 99 kts...or 114 mph sustained winds reported earlier that NHC mentions in latest discussion:

AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE
TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
THAT STATION.

[jlauderdal]

For my south florida neighbors that have suffered a bit of letdown there is some encouraging news for you below. In addition, i posted last night around 930 about 3 day track error and provided the link and said if they are off by 100 miles to the south then it really starts to change things for us, well if you read the 5 am disco they already brought it back north a bit, i haven't calculated how far but im sure its not much and furthermore its a bit of a trend and they could have done it more and so without having to take the brunt of the general you might still get plenty of action. I remember a feeder band about 5 years ago, forgot the system but we were a good 200 miles away and it wasn't a major, the one and only feeder band sofla received and it took down power for 350,000 people.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE...THOUGH THE FORECAST FOR S
FLA FROM NHC BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE OPTIMISTIC...ALL INTERESTS IN S
FLA THOUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. OTHERWISE
...KAMX 88-D DOPPLER RADAR BEGINNING TO DETECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. AS WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM E TO MORE
NE...INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SOME EROSION OF STABLE AIR
OVER S FLA...SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE FROM THE ATLC ONTO
THE S FLA COAST AND INLAND TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO
-NIGHT. ON MON/MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IN
-CREASE. RAIN BANDS ROTATING ABOUT IKE WILL LEAD TO SQUALLY WEATHER
WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS...AFFECTING MAINLY THE S AND W HALF OF THE S FLA PENIN
-SULA. NO HIGHLIGHTS ON THE HORIZON AT THE MOMENT BUT AS CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...SUSTAINED WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF S FLA MAY TRIGGER
SOME WIND ADVISORIES. ALSO...RIGHT NOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD
EASILY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AS S FLA
HAS NOT TOTALLY DRIED OUT. RIGHT NOW THINKING IS TOWARD URBAN
FLOODING CONDITIONS BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH ANY CHANGE IN IKE.
THESE POTENTIAL SITUATIONS WILL BE MONITORED. E AREA MAX/MIN TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMS TODAY/TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS A SHADE COOLER MON
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN. MAX/MIN TEMPS W SHOULD BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO THE NE WIND FLOW. GFS USED FOR ALL GUIDANCE AS MODEL
CLOSEST TO NHC IKE TRACK. ZFP PACKAGE DELAYED UNTIL NHC GUIDANCE
RECEIVED AND INGESTED.

[jlauderdal]

Reporting station in Turks & Caicos currently reporting sustained winds of 53 mph, gust to 71 mph~


http://english.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

any idea how far from the center this is

[KWT]

Well looks like Great Inagua is heading towards the core, I'd imagione winds would be ramping up from now on and they are no doubt going to take a big hit from the eyewall, probably cat-3 conditions.

Indeed the island may get a direct hit by the eye, also motion looks almost due west now.

[jlauderdal]

Well looks like Great Inagua is heading towards the core, I'd imagione winds would be ramping up from now on and they are no doubt going to take a big hit from the eyewall, probably cat-3 conditions.

off topic so what its early, i get leeway after my post about track error last night and being off to the south and it has come to fruition today

2 nil mate and a poor first half against minnow andorra, do they even make the world cup or is it another euro 2008 situation

[jinftl]

NHC states the 99 kt sustained wind on the T&C took place at 300UTC...going to assume that was close enough to the eye to be considered a measuring point..so that was at 11pm last night....and report of sustained 53 mph was recent....so 7 hours post-eye...moving at 15 miles/hr = reporting station 105 miles east of center estimate right now.

Wow...i think that might actually be right and verify with 140 mile ts wind radius. Imagine that!

Reporting station in Turks & Caicos currently reporting sustained winds of 53 mph, gust to 71 mph~


http://english.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

any idea how far from the center this is

[Harry Cane]

2 nil mate and a poor first half against minnow andorra, do they even make the world cup or is it another euro 2008 situation

Not to worry. Fabio will take you all the way, that is after us of course....

[KWT]

So looks like T&C did get into the northern eyewall after, that little jog north of west seems to have really not been good for them, I just hope they have come out of it ok, that 99kts report is cat-3 strength just, impressive!

Pretty typical England really, always expect a donkey performance in one of the halfs.

[jlauderdal]

NHC states the 99 kt sustained wind on the T&C took place at 300UTC...going to assume that was close enough to the eye to be considered a measuring point..so that was at 11pm last night....and report of sustained 53 mph was recent....so 7 hours post-eye...moving at 15 miles/hr = reporting station 105 miles east of center estimate right now.

Wow...i think that might actually be right and verify with 140 mile ts wind radius. Imagine that!

Reporting station in Turks & Caicos currently reporting sustained winds of 53 mph, gust to 71 mph~


http://english.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

any idea how far from the center this is

im just glad they were off as far as they were on thursdays 5 day track, imagine the chaos if they hit that thing within 50 miles on either side, yikes

[abajan]

Well looks like Great Inagua is heading towards the core, I'd imagione winds would be ramping up from now on and they are no doubt going to take a big hit from the eyewall, probably cat-3 conditions.

Indeed the island may get a direct hit by the eye, also motion looks almost due west now.

Thankfully, even though it's 596 sq mi, less than 1000 people live there (at least according to Wikipedia). In comparison, Barbados at only 166 sq mi has a population of about 280,000 !
However, Great Inagua also has a huge sanctuary for many exotic birds which I hope fared well.

[Vortex]

Great Inagua about to take all of Ike..

[KWT]

Yep its got a small population and I'd guess they would have got off the island knowing they were in the path of a major hurricane, if the eye goes over the northern part of the island, matthew town may get a surge into it.

The island certainly is going to get hit very hard today...

[jinftl]

A bit surprised Andros Island was put under a hurricane watch...Andros is no closer to the cone than mainland south florida and has a comparable probability of 34 kt winds. Better to be safe I guess.

Based on the timing, I would think the Florida Keys are up next with a hurricane watch as early as 11 am today. As far as mainland south florida, my inclination is to say no watches for now....perhaps a tropical storm watch later on? The Andros hurricane watch throws me a bit though on what if anything will take place for mainland SF though.

[KWT]

I think the thing to remember is that by the time its at the same longitutde as Florida it will be weakening overland so a hurricane warnng that far north won't be needed, though they may put up a TS watch in case some of the bands do push up that far north. The keys may well get a hurricane watch.

[Sihara]

For my south florida neighbors that have suffered a bit of letdown there is some encouraging news for you below. In addition, i posted last night around 930 about 3 day track error and provided the link and said if they are off by 100 miles to the south then it really starts to change things for us, well if you read the 5 am disco they already brought it back north a bit,

Well, ugh. Just when it seemed FL was about clear of this, it apparently isn't. There's a big difference between what I saw on tv this morning and the 5 am cone in an earlier post. Unlike the tv cone, which was quite a bit west, this one still comes awfully close to FL, and being a few days out isn't totally reassuring. And the cone looks even worse for NOLA (although the tv cone almost put NOLA out of harm's way). God that has to be awful for the incredible number of people returning from the Gustav evac, seeing this new seeming to aim right at them.

I guess the only good resolution of this would be if, and it's unlikely, Ike falls apart over Cuba. Except for the poor people in Cuba, who already dealt with Gustav.

[jinftl]

be interesting to see if the models shift the track over any more north....not only would that mean the center closer to the keys...but it could mean a track over cuba that is alot closer to the north coast....or maybe just offshore if it really shifted....then we are talking about a storm that won't weaken as much or at all....really a lose-lose situation for the keys if that happens

I think the thing to remember is that by the time its at the same longitutde as Florida it will be weakening overland so a hurricane warnng that far north won't be needed, though they may put up a TS watch in case some of the bands do push up that far north. The keys may well get a hurricane watch.

[KWT]

jinftl, I wouldn't totally rule it out, does seem like some of the guidence has shifted north though most are still over Cuba if we see any more short term shifts in the track the center would be awfully close to the coast...

[jinftl]

ike's approach to cuba...and movement thereafter....is one time when wobbles and jogs could actually be significant if they result in more or less time over the open water. A track 30 miles offshore cuba vs 30 miles inland in cuba would be significant in terms of how strong he is...and will be...at his closest approach to florida.

jinftl, I wouldn't totally rule it out, does seem like some of the guidence has shifted north though most are still over Cuba if we see any more short term shifts in the track the center would be awfully close to the coast...