ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[caneman]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Wow thats huge

[TampaFl]

Latest steering for Ike - Notice the ridge axis extending across Central FL into the Central GOM to Texas. That is one big high!

[Stormcenter]

06z GFDL animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Here comes the eastward (again) trend. My east of 88 final landfall is looking believable again.
Seriously though folks we are still at least 5 day from landfall so more changes are likely.

[caneman]

Tampa that my be but the models now have the NOAA info in them to ridge is forecast to break down. We'll see. Never bought the Texas theory. NOLA and East

[jinftl]

Wow...that is an impressive high for sure...i sure hope it does not stay relatively anchored for the next month or so...pushing wave after wave west with little chance for recurve towards the u.s.

Latest steering for Ike - Notice the ridge axis extending across Central FL into the Central GOM to Texas. That is one big high!

[stormhorn]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

How do you get the animation to play?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm going back to bed, these make me sick. Are you sure these are the Ike runs and not Gustav Have a feeling Ike will be making his presence felt around here in some fashion. Maybe not a direct hit, but close enough to damage and tear up things already weakened by Gustav. All it will take is some tropical force winds and blue tarps will be flying, trees and power poles will be dropping. BTW don't buy the HRWF run. Has Ike to far east. It has Ike moving NNW from the moment it leaves Cuba. The ridge will not be that weak early on.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

How do you get the animation to play?

Go to the right and click FWD.

[jlauderdal]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

well max mayfield said last evening lets see how the 5 am track is after the noaa data gets digested and now we have this, trend is east today after a couple days west, lets see how this develops, everyone from key west to cancun is in play until we get rid of this scatter

[stormy1970al]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

How do you get the animation to play?

Scroll down to the bottom of the page and click where it says FWD and it will start the animation for you.

[Bluefrog]

to get it to animate ...there is a button to the far right of your screen FWD = forward. you may have to slide your screen over to see it if your on a laptop or have a small screen.

[stormhorn]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

How do you get the animation to play?

Go to the right and click FWD.

CRAP!!!!!!!
Thanks for the info, though.

[ronjon]

That last 06Z HWRF run is too close for comfort. Models now seem to be keying in on a weakening ridge over the next 24 to 96 hrs. Many models today are showing Ike skimming the north coast of Cuba and then turning almost N-NW once he exits the north Cuban coast around 82 or 83W. The 00Z CMC was an extreme outlier just off the west coast of FL. But the GFDL and HWRF take Ike closer now to the SW and central FL coasts then yesterday. This may shape up to be a close call for KYW and the Tampa to Naples coast then I thought yesterday.

[stormy1970al]

Have the other models ran yet this morning? I don't like this one too much. Too Close for comfort.

[Emmett_Brown]

This east shift is deja-vu from yesterday morning. We started the day with GFDL and HWRF in the EGOM, and ended the day with in the WGOM. Now we are back to the EGOM again.

Big swings, so still very uncertain after 72 hours IMO... what we need now is some consistency before we can buy any of these runs. I would not be surprised to see it shift west again, in fact, given that the models were east of FL about 48 hours ago, I dont know what to think.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

well max mayfield said last evening lets see how the 5 am track is after the noaa data gets digested and now we have this, trend is east today after a couple days west, lets see how this develops, everyone from key west to cancun is in play until we get rid of this scatter

Let's hope for our sake that those models don't continue to shift east...A bigger weakness than forecasted would bring ole Ike right up Florida's Turnpike!

SFT

[ronjon]

TampaFL, while that high is impressive its weaker than it was yesterday. Models are showing a shifting east and weakening of the high after 24 hrs. Stay tuned.

[Ed Mahmoud]

06z HWRF shifts east with the end of run south of Pensacola.The gulfstream jet information has helped the models digest it and now they are more east.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Yup, 6Z GFS is back in Louisiana, and 6Z GFDL is pointed toward CenLA.

Trend East could continue...