ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

I saw some mentions last night to storms that defied model runs. I know there was a typhoon recently that did it and someone mentioned Irene in 99 as well. The most dramatic example I can remember though would have to be Mitch in 1998. If you will recall Mitch was supposed to head NW into the GOM. Instead he headed SW and South into Nicarauga and Honduras.

SFT

[cycloneye]

For the new members that haved joined us recently and dont know the times that the next set of models come out here they are:

12z GFS at 11:30 AM EDT
12z CMC (Canadian)=1:00 PM EDT
12z GFDL at 1:30 PM EDT
12z HWRF at 1:30 PM EDT
12z UKMET at 1:30 PM EDT
12z NOGAPS at 2:00 PM EDT
12z EURO at 2:30 PM EDT

[jinftl]

Think of it this way...the models are still shifting around...although not by huge distances...for where they expect ike to be in 24 and 48 hours. If a model updates that position, it will no doubt impact the plot points forecast 72 and more hours out...where he is in the short-term will no doubt impact where he will be later this week...add the margin of error of hundreds of miles for models 5 or more days out....looking at models for positons in 6 days in the gulf is almost useless until the forecast period draws in a few days closer.

This east shift is deja-vu from yesterday morning. We started the day with GFDL and HWRF in the EGOM, and ended the day with in the WGOM. Now we are back to the EGOM again.

Big swings, so still very uncertain after 72 hours IMO... what we need now is some consistency before we can buy any of these runs. I would not be surprised to see it shift west again, in fact, given that the models were east of FL about 48 hours ago, I dont know what to think.

[Emmett_Brown]

I saw some mentions last night to storms that defied model runs. I know there was a typhoon recently that did it and someone mentioned Irene in 99 as well. The most dramatic example I can remember though would have to be Mitch in 1998. If you will recall Mitch was supposed to head NW into the GOM. Instead he headed SW and South into Nicarauga and Honduras.

SFT

If you ask me, Ike is defying them right now... still moving somewhat S of due W, where most of the models show him having straightened out to due west by now.

[caneman]

I saw some mentions last night to storms that defied model runs. I know there was a typhoon recently that did it and someone mentioned Irene in 99 as well. The most dramatic example I can remember though would have to be Mitch in 1998. If you will recall Mitch was supposed to head NW into the GOM. Instead he headed SW and South into Nicarauga and Honduras.

SFT

If you ask me, Ike is defying them right now... still moving somewhat S of due W, where most of the models show him having straightened out to due west by now.

Emmett, these models are still counting on a slight South of West motion. Should end in 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

I saw some mentions last night to storms that defied model runs. I know there was a typhoon recently that did it and someone mentioned Irene in 99 as well. The most dramatic example I can remember though would have to be Mitch in 1998. If you will recall Mitch was supposed to head NW into the GOM. Instead he headed SW and South into Nicarauga and Honduras.

SFT

If you ask me, Ike is defying them right now... still moving somewhat S of due W, where most of the models show him having straightened out to due west by now.

which models had a due west motion at this time? i would like to take a look at those. Thanks Emmett

[ronjon]

NHC track is now on the south side of the model guidance.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[dwg71]

Track will shift North, at next advisory (no doubtt), but how much? I would think it wont go any further than the GFDL to see if the models continue to hone in on SELA to Fl or do the swing back west.

[Emmett_Brown]

I saw some mentions last night to storms that defied model runs. I know there was a typhoon recently that did it and someone mentioned Irene in 99 as well. The most dramatic example I can remember though would have to be Mitch in 1998. If you will recall Mitch was supposed to head NW into the GOM. Instead he headed SW and South into Nicarauga and Honduras.

SFT

If you ask me, Ike is defying them right now... still moving somewhat S of due W, where most of the models show him having straightened out to due west by now.

which models had a due west motion at this time? i would like to take a look at those. Thanks Emmett

Here:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

Click on the chart to zoom in. Short term motion from 6z models was generally W, over Great Inagua. Latest IR show Ike trying to sneak under Great Inagua. Granted, I am probably wobble watching, but Ike has already reached 21N, so he might be slightly off track to the south.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFS with G-IV data doesn't even water my lawn. After I do yardwork, I'll probably have to water again. But I'll have cold Shiner in the fridge

And the nice Northerly breezes, if GFS verifies, would mean the cool early Fall weather in SE TX would continue and it would be quite comfortable for outdoor activities.

[Aristotle]

Ill tell you what, if Ike keeps shooting south of west he may break out south of cuba and swing through the channel. Not good!

[jlauderdal]

I saw some mentions last night to storms that defied model runs. I know there was a typhoon recently that did it and someone mentioned Irene in 99 as well. The most dramatic example I can remember though would have to be Mitch in 1998. If you will recall Mitch was supposed to head NW into the GOM. Instead he headed SW and South into Nicarauga and Honduras.

SFT

If you ask me, Ike is defying them right now... still moving somewhat S of due W, where most of the models show him having straightened out to due west by now.

which models had a due west motion at this time? i would like to take a look at those. Thanks Emmett

Here:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

Click on the chart to zoom in. Short term motion from 6z models was generally W, over Great Inagua. Latest IR show Ike trying to sneak under Great Inagua. Granted, I am probably wobble watching, but Ike has already reached 21N, so he might be slightly off track to the south.[/quote]

lets see if it gets back on track, these hurricanes hate land and its doing everything it can to avoid inagua, good news for all you salt lovers since that and flamingos is about all thats there

[SouthFLTropics]

Nice "Ike" avatar jlauderdale... LOL

SFT

[Ed Mahmoud]

My AccuWx PPV Wave Watch model shows 7 foot seas just offshore GLS. Of course, it also shows 36 foot seas just South of Port Fourchon in 6 days.

Highest wind on the scale is 70 knots, and 70 knot winds look to be on the coast from Morgan City to Grand Isle.

Wave Watch, IIRC, generates predictions directly from GFS data.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Nice "Ike" avatar jlauderdale... LOL

SFT

i had the generator avatar but fortunately the generator will probably stay in the garage so i went with the general sitting there wondering where this damn thing is going

[KWT]

The GFS based models have shifted eastwards as was expected really.

As for the GFDL and HWRF, Ike really quite go much further south of where it is otherwise those models will have Ike heading inland into Cuba too far up the coast.

[gtalum]

Those models shifted east yesterday on their 6z runs, only to shift right back to where they had been before for the 12z runs.

[jlauderdal]

Those models shifted east yesterday on their 6z runs, only to shift right back to where they had been before for the 12z runs.

they have the noaa mission data today, that is a big difference

[Emmett_Brown]

Those models shifted east yesterday on their 6z runs, only to shift right back to where they had been before for the 12z runs.

they have the noaa mission data today, that is a big difference

I thought they had NOAA data yesterday too at this time, or did I miss something... was 6z the first run with NOAA gulfstream data?

[jhpigott]

Those models shifted east yesterday on their 6z runs, only to shift right back to where they had been before for the 12z runs.

they have the noaa mission data today, that is a big difference

I thought they had NOAA data yesterday too at this time, or did I miss something... was 6z the first run with NOAA gulfstream data?

i think the 0Z runs had the as well. interestingly enough, HWRF and GDFL shifted east in those runs as well