ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Those models shifted east yesterday on their 6z runs, only to shift right back to where they had been before for the 12z runs.

they have the noaa mission data today, that is a big difference

I thought they had NOAA data yesterday too at this time, or did I miss something... was 6z the first run with NOAA gulfstream data?

they ran the mission yesterday, the modeling today has the data,it isnt an instantaneous deal
while some of you were sleeping on the job hiflyer posted the link below this morning that allows you to track these missions
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

[jhpigott]

Those models shifted east yesterday on their 6z runs, only to shift right back to where they had been before for the 12z runs.

yea, same thing yesterday. I will need to see a couple sets of model runs in a row shifting east before i start getting concerned (again) here in SFL

[meteorologyman]

Is it possible to get the speghetti model with all the data input?

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, if you go over to the Ike main discussion thread, WXman just postedsome 12z plots, and they look a little more West again...

[curtadams]

Things are looking better than they did yesterday. Not to wish ill on the Panhandle folks (and my mom has a condo there) but Cat 2 into the Panhandle is immensely better than Cat 4/5 into the oil patch/Houston/NOLA (or into Miami). Plus just a little jog S will take Ike into the core-destroying mountains of S Cuba (crosses fingers). Hope the Turks and Caicos didn't take too much damage.

[stormy1970al]

Things are looking better than they did yesterday. Not to wish ill on the Panhandle folks (and my mom has a condo there) but Cat 2 into the Panhandle is immensely better than Cat 4/5 into the oil patch/Houston/NOLA (or into Miami). Plus just a little jog S will take Ike into the core-destroying mountains of S Cuba (crosses fingers). Hope the Turks and Caicos didn't take too much damage.

Considering I live near this area a Cat 2 is nothing to ignore. Believe me I wish the darn thing would fizzle out period before it hits anyone including Cuba but I know that is a dream. Cat 2 to this area would be bad enough. Especially if it has a lot of rain.

[CaneCharmer]

Turks and Caicos had a lot of damage; 80 percent of homes damaged and hundreds lost their roofs....

[ROCK]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

huh? trash.....6 runs in a row showing a more western solution and its trash......please...and yes I know who I am......

[jhpigott]

Well, if you go over to the Ike main discussion thread, WXman just postedsome 12z plots, and they look a little more West again...

i didn't think the 12zs had run yet . . . at least the GFS (12est), GFDL(130est) and HWRF(130est) haven't

[HouTXmetro]

These models generally shift East at night. I expect them to move more western and start to ultimately target Upper TX or SW Louisiana. And yes, I'm an unabashed EURO Hugger.

[jhpigott]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

huh? trash.....6 runs in a row showing a more western solution and its trash......please...and yes I know who I am......

speaking of 6 runs in a row . . . recall what the EURO did with Hanna . . . literally blew up SEFLA for at least 6 runs in a row . . . it's had a little left bias the past couple storms

[vaffie]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

huh? trash.....6 runs in a row showing a more western solution and its trash......please...and yes I know who I am......

speaking of 6 runs in a row . . . recall what the EURO did with Hanna . . . literally blew up SEFLA for at least 6 runs in a row . . . it's had a little left bias the past couple storms

I think that we're forgetting that the GFDL has a rightward bias--it was out to sea with Ike... For Gustav, half the time, it was aiming at Mobile... When you average the Euro and GFDL you get a really good track though. And for right now, that average is at SE Texas/SW Louisiana. We'll see how it changes.

[Javlin]

Well, if you go over to the Ike main discussion thread, WXman just postedsome 12z plots, and they look a little more West again...

By the way, here are the 12Z model plots, BAMs, NAM, and some experimental models removed. Mostly consensus, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET. Definite bend to NW Gulf, all are in agreement. HWRF and GFDL now the right outliers. Can't rule out an eventual final landfall anywhere from upper TX coast to FL Panhandle. Though my gut is saying Louisiana again.

Nothing against ya just do not like to see anyone's words taken out of context

[Portastorm]

These models generally shift East at night. I expect them to move more western and start to ultimately target Upper TX or SW Louisiana. And yes, I'm an unabashed EURO Hugger.

I'm with you on this ... the Euro seems to lead the way on trends. It, along with the UKMet, were showing CGOM/WGOM before the others. Also note in the main Ike thread that Wxman57 posted some early but reliable 12z runs which also suggest "west is best." The pro mets have told us time and time again that the 0z and 12z runs of models are what we should be paying attention to ... so why people get wrapped around the axle on 6z and 18z runs are beyond me.

And before anyone thinks "hey Portastorm, you're just hanging on model runs that show Texas (i.e. -removed-)" ... I'm still thinking Ike hits east of us, like Louisiana/Mississippi.

[KWT]

Once again looks like the cone will be very similar to that of Gustav's. I remember the ECM did the exact same thing with Gustav in bending it way too far to the west, though in the end a slight west kink did happen the ECM massivly overcooked it, thats probably whats happening this time.

[jhpigott]

I think that we're forgetting that the GFDL has a rightward bias--it was out to sea with Ike... For Gustav, half the time, it was aiming at Mobile... When you average the Euro and GFDL you get a really good track though. And for right now, that average is at SE Texas/SW Louisiana. We'll see how it changes.[/quote]

GDFL has had some issues with a right bias . . . what's your take on the HWRF model?

[jlauderdal]

I think that we're forgetting that the GFDL has a rightward bias--it was out to sea with Ike... For Gustav, half the time, it was aiming at Mobile... When you average the Euro and GFDL you get a really good track though. And for right now, that average is at SE Texas/SW Louisiana. We'll see how it changes.

GDFL has had some issues with a right bias . . . what's your take on the HWRF model?[/quote]

hwrf has been far too aggressive with intensity this year

[Portastorm]

Here are some of the latest 12z runs:

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, if you go over to the Ike main discussion thread, WXman just postedsome 12z plots, and they look a little more West again...

By the way, here are the 12Z model plots, BAMs, NAM, and some experimental models removed. Mostly consensus, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET. Definite bend to NW Gulf, all are in agreement. HWRF and GFDL now the right outliers. Can't rule out an eventual final landfall anywhere from upper TX coast to FL Panhandle. Though my gut is saying Louisiana again.

Nothing against ya just do not like to see anyone's words taken out of context

I do not believe that these are the real 12z runs. I think they are extrapolated versions of the 06z run, matched to Ike's current position. They are basically what the models would show if they were run right now with the 06z data. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[jhpigott]

GDFL has had some issues with a right bias . . . what's your take on the HWRF model?[/quote]

hwrf has been far too aggressive with intensity this year[/quote]

definetly seen that - had Ike landfalling on Cuba at 903mb at one point . . . but what about track-wise. It's the eastern most outlier at present