ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

The models have moved to the N somewhat in the longer range and don't quite flatten out as before. Could see a heading that implies more of a Louisiana threat at 11.

[StormTracker]

Ok, I have to do it: Is SFL in the clear???


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad

[gtalum]

Ok, I have to do it: Is SFL in the clear???

The entire FL peninsula is in the clear. We're not even in the 5 day cone.

This is now a Panhandle to Texas threat.

[stormhorn]

I'm blowing this one towards TEXAS!!!!!!

[vaffie]

GDFL has had some issues with a right bias . . . what's your take on the HWRF model?

hwrf has been far too aggressive with intensity this year

definetly seen that - had Ike landfalling on Cuba at 903mb at one point . . . but what about track-wise. It's the eastern most outlier at present

I think the HWRF is somewhat better than the GFDL. It's a much more advanced model than the GFDL and the NHC is going to completely replace the GFDL next year probably with it. It seems to have less of a bias generally, but it also appears to have a small right bias. You can see that with the 6z track it has. For the entire track through the Gulf it's to the right of all of the other tracks, so no wonder when it reaches the central Gulf it's more likely to feel the trough and head north towards the Panhandle. I think that's very unlikely. The GFDL is similar in this run but not as severe. It is also to the right of all the other tracks up to 83W, at which point it feels the trough more than the others and starts heading NW. I doubt it. I like the GFDL/HWRF generally, but they only provide a bias for the consensus track I think.

[ronjon]

I think that we're forgetting that the GFDL has a rightward bias--it was out to sea with Ike... For Gustav, half the time, it was aiming at Mobile... When you average the Euro and GFDL you get a really good track though. And for right now, that average is at SE Texas/SW Louisiana. We'll see how it changes.

GDFL has had some issues with a right bias . . . what's your take on the HWRF model?[/quote]

Actually the GFDL has been dead on with Ike and predicted the SW dive long before may other models did. You're thinking of the GFS that recurved Ike offshore. The GFDL has been known for a right hand bias at times. While I'm generally a fan of the long range Euro, its performed poorly this year with Bertha, Dolly, and Gustav. The Euro has overplayed ridging in the case of Dolly and Gustav. The UKMET has been a joke this year in the tropics and its been the outlier on nearly every storm. The GFDL and HWRF seem to be outperforming the globals.

[sphelps8681]

These models generally shift East at night. I expect them to move more western and start to ultimately target Upper TX or SW Louisiana. And yes, I'm an unabashed EURO Hugger.

I'm with you on this ... the Euro seems to lead the way on trends. It, along with the UKMet, were showing CGOM/WGOM before the others. Also note in the main Ike thread that Wxman57 posted some early but reliable 12z runs which also suggest "west is best." The pro mets have told us time and time again that the 0z and 12z runs of models are what we should be paying attention to ... so why people get wrapped around the axle on 6z and 18z runs are beyond me.

And before anyone thinks "hey Portastorm, you're just hanging on model runs that show Texas (i.e. -removed-)" ... I'm still thinking Ike hits east of us, like Louisiana/Mississippi.

I don't think it's -removed- when you are in the cone. Most of what I have been reading is about locations outside of the cone area. As long as I am in the cone I have concern. Just got back from Evac from Gustav, and now a possibly evac for Ike. I do understand that eventually it will turn but at this time no one knows when that is.

[StormTracker]

Ok, I have to do it: Is SFL in the clear???

The entire FL peninsula is in the clear. We're not even in the 5 day cone.

This is now a Panhandle to Texas threat.

I was editing my post while you were answering my question, but I asked because tropical storm history shows that very few storms from Ike's position go that far west! I guess Ike will be an exception to the rule!!!

[ExBailbonds]

Ok, I have to do it: Is SFL in the clear???

The entire FL peninsula is in the clear. We're not even in the 5 day cone.

This is now a Panhandle to Texas threat.

Well it apears that we will dodge the bullet with this one but i would not say we are in the clear. Things can change. It could stall or or do somthing thats not forcasted. So till it is completly past us. I would not be sounding the all clear.

[stormhorn]

I guess people tend to hollar -removed- at the Texans because if it's even remotely coming towards Texas.....IT'S THEM ONLY!! If anyone says anything other than Texas than you're going to hear about it! I guess, the phrase "Don't Mess With Texas!" is true.

[gatorcane]

Ok, I have to do it: Is SFL in the clear???


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad

Looking at climo nearly every track near where Ike is at has impacted the FL peninsula and none the GOM..

hmmmm...

[Stratosphere747]

I guess people tend to hollar -removed- at the Texans because if it's even remotely coming towards Texas.....IT'S THEM ONLY!! If anyone says anything other than Texas than you're going to hear about it! I guess, the phrase "Don't Mess With Texas!" is true.

No disrespect, but this is a tiring debate. I even mentioned to my fellow Texans to take a deep breath last night because there would be some upcoming changes.

If you want to get technical though, this is a models thread and the trend has been clearly to the W which did imply a Texas threat.

[ROCK]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

huh? trash.....6 runs in a row showing a more western solution and its trash......please...and yes I know who I am......

speaking of 6 runs in a row . . . recall what the EURO did with Hanna . . . literally blew up SEFLA for at least 6 runs in a row . . . it's had a little left bias the past couple storms

I realize that...I never use the EURO for intensity or landfall.....I am speaking of general track and area...

[sphelps8681]

Well we are in the cone as well as LA. If any other states were in the cone I would be concerned for you. It's sad that when we see a track that's aimed at us at this point and that could change we should have a little more insight than attitude.

I have been on this site for several years and it always Texas posters are on the defense.

[Portastorm]

So much for Ed's "westerlies" ... the steering currents right now show a stout ridge in the southern Gulf states and what Ike would be moving into ... makes it easier to understand why all the west trends.

[Stratosphere747]

*Long range always subject to significant changes*

Latest track does adjust a bit to the N, but still shows a heading that implies a Texas/La. threat.

Great disco that covers the G-IV data and the soundings from around the Gulf that the locals are doing.

[caneman]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

huh? trash.....6 runs in a row showing a more western solution and its trash......please...and yes I know who I am......

1 model. I wouldn't hug just one. I prefer the GFS, GFDL and HWRF sloution. No further West than Lousisiana is my guess.

[Weatherfreak000]

Even in the last run of the EURO there was an East Shift.


I think the EURO is garbage of it can't see Ike feeling the trough.., seems highly unlikely to me Ike will miss it.

[perk]

*Long range always subject to significant changes*

Latest track does adjust a bit to the N, but still shows a heading that implies a Texas/La. threat.

Great disco that covers the G-IV data and the soundings from around the Gulf that the locals are doing.

I agree that was a great discussion, but i don't think there was any shift north.

[HouTXmetro]

*Long range always subject to significant changes*

Latest track does adjust a bit to the N, but still shows a heading that implies a Texas/La. threat.

Great disco that covers the G-IV data and the soundings from around the Gulf that the locals are doing.

Doesn't make a difference right now but it actually looks further West and slightly South at the end of the run. Again, the difference right now is insignificant.