ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[vaffie]

I think the EURO is garbage of it can't see Ike feeling the trough.., seems highly unlikely to me Ike will miss it.

The Euro does see the trough. In fact it sees a very strong trough. In the latest Euro, as soon as it hits SE Texas, it shoots northeast because of the trough.

[teal61]

I guess people tend to hollar -removed- at the Texans because if it's even remotely coming towards Texas.....IT'S THEM ONLY!! If anyone says anything other than Texas than you're going to hear about it! I guess, the phrase "Don't Mess With Texas!" is true.

Good grief..this Texas bashing that goes on gets so old. Why i rarely post anymore. The last thing most sensible folks want is a major hurricane. If fact i cant think of anything better than a major crusing up Galveston Bay, no air or electricity for weeks..thats the life....not ! There are plenty folks from Florida and elsewhere that seem to want to steer every storm in their direction.

[perk]

Even in the last run of the EURO there was an East Shift.


I think the EURO is garbage of it can't see Ike feeling the trough.., seems highly unlikely to me Ike will miss it.

Ok you've made your feelings clear about how you feel about the Euro, but the NHC disco says that most of the dynamical models has the trough bypassing Ike, how can you argue with that

[perk]

I guess people tend to hollar -removed- at the Texans because if it's even remotely coming towards Texas.....IT'S THEM ONLY!! If anyone says anything other than Texas than you're going to hear about it! I guess, the phrase "Don't Mess With Texas!" is true.

Good grief..this Texas bashing that goes on gets so old. Why i rarely post anymore. The last thing most sensible folks want is a major hurricane. If fact i cant think of anything better than a major crusing up Galveston Bay, no air or electricity for weeks..thats the life....not ! There are plenty folks from Florida and elsewhere that seem to want to steer every storm in their direction.

Well said.

[stormchazer]

Ok, I have to do it: Is SFL in the clear???


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad

Looking at climo nearly every track near where Ike is at has impacted the FL peninsula and none the GOM..

hmmmm...

You said it.....nearly. Hurricanes do not check the climo map to decide which way to go. You know as much as anyone Gatorcane, its all in the steering and barring a sudden change in downrange forecast, Florida looks good.

[Stratosphere747]

I agree that was a great discussion, but i don't think there was any shift north.

You're correct. Glanced at the disco and saw that Rhome mentioned the track just to the N of the model consensus. Track further to the W, but not the N.

5 120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 100 KT
11 120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT

[HouTXmetro]

I guess people tend to hollar -removed- at the Texans because if it's even remotely coming towards Texas.....IT'S THEM ONLY!! If anyone says anything other than Texas than you're going to hear about it! I guess, the phrase "Don't Mess With Texas!" is true.

Good grief..this Texas bashing that goes on gets so old. Why i rarely post anymore. The last thing most sensible folks want is a major hurricane. If fact i cant think of anything better than a major crusing up Galveston Bay, no air or electricity for weeks..thats the life....not ! There are plenty folks from Florida and elsewhere that seem to want to steer every storm in their direction.

We can post freely here. I don't bash other people who call what they see and neither does any Texas posters I know. There is nothing wrong with arguing about what can potentially happen when analysing what the storm is currently doing and what the models are potentially showing.

[caneman]

Texas bashing?? Well, when you hang onto one model that hasn't done well this year and shows a landfall towards Texas some 7-10 days out. What would you expect-everyone to just agree???

[Weatherfreak000]

Even in the last run of the EURO there was an East Shift.


I think the EURO is garbage of it can't see Ike feeling the trough.., seems highly unlikely to me Ike will miss it.

Ok you've made your feelings clear about how you feel about the Euro, but the NHC disco says that most of the dynamical models has the trough bypassing Ike, how can you argue with that

Perhaps because we are 100+ hours to seeing that happening...we're in September...and that isn't unanimously favored and appears to be LOSING model support instead of gaining it.

We shall see.

[amanda]

Ok, I have to do it: Is SFL in the clear???


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_climo.html#a_topad

Looking at climo nearly every track near where Ike is at has impacted the FL peninsula and none the GOM..

hmmmm...

do you know offhand if the steering currents were similar to Ike's in any of those occasions?

[teal61]

Texas bashing?? Well, when you hang onto one model that hasn't done well this year and shows a landfall towards Texas some 7-10 days out. What would you expect-everyone to just agree???

I am not hanging on any model Caneman, and as far as the euro stuff goes i dont care for them. Just seems like a lot of elementary school kids arguing about this stuff.

That being said I will stick with the NHC since they have proven to be quite capable of forecasting these storms. And a look at their latest track ( with all the models available to them that we are seeing ) does not please me at all.

So you guys can you back to bickering and i will go back to lurking.....

[HouTXmetro]

Texas bashing?? Well, when you hang onto one model that hasn't done well this year and shows a landfall towards Texas some 7-10 days out. What would you expect-everyone to just agree???

Nobody is asking you to agree, but this condecending name calling because some people like a particular proven model is uncalled for. I for one never called for a Texas landfall with Gustav even when some models were showing that.

[haml8]

I guess people tend to hollar -removed- at the Texans because if it's even remotely coming towards Texas.....IT'S THEM ONLY!! If anyone says anything other than Texas than you're going to hear about it! I guess, the phrase "Don't Mess With Texas!" is true.

Good grief..this Texas bashing that goes on gets so old. Why i rarely post anymore. The last thing most sensible folks want is a major hurricane. If fact i cant think of anything better than a major crusing up Galveston Bay, no air or electricity for weeks..thats the life....not ! There are plenty folks from Florida and elsewhere that seem to want to steer every storm in their direction.

Well said.

Here Here!!

[Dean4Storms]

Geez folks get a grip. The people in Texas should be as concerned as those in Florida, AL, MS, LA and even MX at this point. Nobody is totally in the clear around the entire GOM as the NHC track has an error average of 300 miles. The GFS could swing to MX tonight or the EURO to the Panhandle in this situation. It probably won't be until sometime on Tues. before a good 3 day model consensus nails this down. Meantime why don't everyone respect everyone else's opinions and concerns??

[southerngale]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

What? People who are in the general area of where a model has shown landfall for several runs were posting and talking about it? Showing concern? That's just crazy.

Look... this forum is to discuss the tropics, from a meteorological standpoint and for those who could be affected to talk and discuss the possibilities, ask questions, learn, show concern, etc. The staff is really getting tired of these smart-alec comments when people post about the potential threat in their areas. I mean, seriously... isn't it common sense that people are more concerned about the potential effects to their locations? This isn't unusual... it's quite normal.

This is for everyone... leave off the rude comments or you may get a warning and/or suspension. Since we can't read every post, I also ask help from all members to use the "Report a post" feature and report any questionable posts and we'll check them out. Thanks.

[caneman]

Texas bashing?? Well, when you hang onto one model that hasn't done well this year and shows a landfall towards Texas some 7-10 days out. What would you expect-everyone to just agree???

Nobody is asking you to agree, but this condecending name calling because some people like a particular proven model is uncalled for. I for one never called for a Texas landfall with Gustav even when some models were showing that.

There is no bashing going on here. Just an observation. One model is being hung onto with a landfall 7+ days out, with a model that hasn't proven itself this year and although climo isn't everything would seem highly unlikely for a system to make it that far. We don't expect storms on the West coast of Florida in July or August of course every once in a while a Charley come along. It is just an observation. I can see getting a little worked up indside of 5 days, even more so inside of 3 days and even more so when several models of the reliable kind are pointed your way. My opinion. You don't have to like it.

[jinftl]

I am back to thinking a Corpus Christi to North Mexico landfall down the road...the latest NHC discussion says the trough is forecast to be missed by almost all of the models. With nothing to draw Ike to a more wnw and nw motion down the road, i find it hard to see how ike would get north enough to make it into the central gulf.

As has been the case since Friday, the track has shifted west...mainly because the onset of the wnw motion has been pushed further west. I expect this trend to continue with the cone of uncertainty in the Gulf. When the models factor in a storm that is running further south as he is guided by the ridge and moves west...plus the lack of trough...i would see a trend towards TX/LA, then mainly TX, finally bending west to a south TX/north MX landfall.

I imagine a simple track actually...generally west with some wnw component...in relation to the ridge. Not at all out of question Ike will graze the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as well.

And I live in South Florida so my thinking Texas is very bi-partisan and only based on weather

[cycloneye]

WARNING=This thread is not about wars of models and about Texas,Florida,Louisiana etc.This thread is about what the models show in every run in general,not about any preference of members to any area in particular.Lets stop this chat of Texas vs Florida for example.

[Cape Verde]

Let's just concede that none of the models are really very good at long range forecasting.

It wasn't all that long ago that the discussion was where Ike would recurve and which segment of the Florida peninsula would be most impacted.

The further west the models shift, the more concerned I get, but I'm still not going to get in a lather when the storm is still so far away.

[TampaFl]

11:00am position: Ike finally making the west turn?