ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

west movement commencing folks.

4 frames of west movement isnt enough to declare that gator, we need more

3hr movement from 1145Z-1445Z toward 273.6 deg. Moved 38.5nm, which equates to about 12.8 kts. Clearly moving west past 3 hours.

[wxman57]

All forecasts in the AF Forum indicate a rapid re-intensification when Ike emerges into the GOM. And it will be quite a long tracker over there. I think Louisiana and Texas should really keep an eye over that. Btw, Ike will be a TS over Cuba, and I think it's more accurate to me.

I'd go with a slow redevelopment in the Gulf. No core, expanded wind field due to extensive time over land, and probably a TS with 50 mph winds when it passes Havana. It'll take a while to get its core back together.

[StJoe]

I almost have the feeling that from LA/MS Eastward can feel pretty clear now.

explanation, please?

[KWT]

Very interesitng wxman57, thats the first time I've seen any north of west motion for quite a while though there some earlier one last night...

Due west takes it right towards Banes.

[Sabanic]

I almost have the feeling that from LA/MS Eastward can feel pretty clear now.

explanation, please?

Not based on anything solid, but seems as though with the huge shift westward that it is looking like that is the way Ike will be heading

[KWT]

I'd go with a slow redevelopment in the Gulf. No core, expanded wind field due to extensive time over land, and probably a TS with 50 mph winds when it passes Havana. It'll take a while to get its core back together.

Is it one of those situations where it takes about 24hrs to get its inner core back then it rapidly restrengthens again?

[HurricaneRobert]

All forecasts in the AF Forum indicate a rapid re-intensification when Ike emerges into the GOM. And it will be quite a long tracker over there. I think Louisiana and Texas should really keep an eye over that. Btw, Ike will be a TS over Cuba, and I think it's more accurate to me.

I'd go with a slow redevelopment in the Gulf. No core, expanded wind field due to extensive time over land, and probably a TS with 50 mph winds when it passes Havana. It'll take a while to get its core back together.

We need some nice shear or dry air. Do you think we might have both?

[mpic]

I almost have the feeling that from LA/MS Eastward can feel pretty clear now.

They just said pretty much the same thing on Channel 13 Houston

[pablolopez26]

How well can the Galveston sea wall protect the city from storm surge? Im thinking it could withstand a Cat.2 direct hit right?

This huge westerly shift in Ikes track does not bode well for CC or Houston for that matter. A hit on Freeport would be bad!

Houston may not be so lucky this time around with Ike. We're due for a hit anyways.

[Weatherfreak000]

You realize just how completely far away the storm is?

Geez...it's 5+ days out. Get a grip here guys


HWRF says Panhandle...that means it can STILL GO ANYWHERE.

[HurricaneRobert]

How well can the Galveston sea wall protect the city from storm surge? Im thinking it could withstand a Cat.2 direct hit right?

This huge westerly shift in Ikes track does not bode well for CC or Houston for that matter. A hit on Freeport would be bad!

Houston may not be so lucky this time around with Ike. We're due for a hit anyways.

Houston area had a hurricane hit last year.

[TampaFl]

11:00am position: Ike finally making the west turn?

[Storm Contractor]

This year for forecasters reminds me of a U S open golf tournament played in gusty winds. Not only do the forecasters have to play on a course that is already set up against them, but the gusty winds changes the game in the middle of the shot. Add to that a whole bunch of critical announcers and this is at the very least "addictive" monitoring. I would say there are more people paying attention to hurricane season this year than any I can remember. I think everyone from Brownsville ,TX to the outer banks has been in at least 1 5-day cone and it is just now Sept 7 three days before the average season peak. I know in Panama city we have been in 2 since August 1 and we appear to be heading for our 3rd coming soon.

[StJoe]

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...

[Myersgirl]

Would be nice if radar occasionally worked at Gitmo

[KWT]

TampaFl, it does look like the track is slowly easing out to a westerly heading though its a slow process, pretty much on forecast as well, the GFDL did en exceptional job on this WSW motion.

Will probably still wobble south of west at times but does seem the motion is sowly turning more due west.

[StJoe]

This year for forecasters reminds me of a U S open golf tournament played in gusty winds. Not only do the forecasters have to play on a course that is already set up against them, but the gusty winds changes the game in the middle of the shot. Add to that a whole bunch of critical announcers and this is at the very least "addictive" monitoring. I would say there are more people paying attention to hurricane season this year than any I can remember. I think everyone from Brownsville ,TX to the outer banks has been in at least 1 5-day cone and it is just now Sept 7 three days before the average season peak. I know in Panama city we have been in 2 since August 1 and we appear to be heading for our 3rd coming soon.

Thats a pretty good summary Storm Contractor...Hurricane Season=Golf. So, I guess you can say we're playing the backside now, so to say?

[Weatherfreak000]

The Ridge appears to be weakening somewhat on Water Vapor..I can definitely buy a westward turn now...

[mpic]

You realize just how completely far away the storm is?

Geez...it's 5+ days out. Get a grip here guys


HWRF says Panhandle...that means it can STILL GO ANYWHERE.

Getting a grip and being prepared are two different animals. After the Riata evac fiasco for those south of Houston, we are concerned. Lighten up...imo

[Dean4Storms]

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...

00Z Canadian does as well among others.