ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[caneman]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

What? People who are in the general area of where a model has shown landfall for several runs were posting and talking about it? Showing concern? That's just crazy.

Look... this forum is to discuss the tropics, from a meteorological standpoint and for those who could be affected to talk and discuss the possibilities, ask questions, learn, show concern, etc. The staff is really getting tired of these smart-alec comments when people post about the potential threat in their areas. I mean, seriously... isn't it common sense that people are more concerned about the potential effects to their locations? This isn't unusual... it's quite normal.

This is for everyone... leave off the rude comments or you may get a warning and/or suspension. Since we can't read every post, I also ask help from all members to use the "Report a post" feature and report any questionable posts and we'll check them out. Thanks.

I hope this wasn't directed to me. I made no rude comments. In fact, I offered insight and reasoning for the novcies that come here with no ties to any particular area.. See my post just above this. Perhaps you are refering to someone else although my post is quoted.

[perk]

WARNING=This thread is not about wars of models and about Texas,Florida,Louisiana etc.This thread is about what the models show in every run in general,not about any preference of members to any area in particular.Lets stop this chat of Texas vs Florida for example.

I'll gladly comply.

[Myersgirl]

Is it the GFS that comes out at 11:30?

[Portastorm]

Is it the GFS that comes out at 11:30?

Yes indeed and it'll be a very anticipated run for all of us!

[caneman]

Well for me this isn't a Texas vs. Florida war for me. I believe it will end up around Lousiana to Mississippi.

[chris_fit]

Is it the GFS that comes out at 11:30?

Yes indeed and it'll be a very anticipated run for all of us!

Running right now....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Portastorm]

12z GFS so far (through 36 hrs) looks to run Ike slightly north of west and right down the spine of Cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_lu.shtml

[Senobia]

I've seen it said in some of the pro-met comments here, pro-mets on other sites, as well as the NHC that they are 'confident' in the models and the forecast track. I've never seen 'confident' thrown around like this before in regards to forecasting a hurricane. I've always heard the standard disclaimer of forecasts being 'subject to large errors' and blah blah.

So I'm wondering how they can be so 'confident' with this storm and what factors are at play in their confidence. Further, I'd like to know where they are 'confident' that landfall will occur.

Eh.

Seems futile...and misleading..to use such a word this early in a forecast.

[AJC3]

The propensity for bashing the ECM is strange. Sure, it's had a few goofy runs (e.g. 12Z SAT), however, it was the first global model to suggest a stall with Fay at longer ranges, with a track back westward across Fl and the panhandle...and it was also the first of the globals to suggest a path cross Cuba with Ike. Very far from the absolute 'trash' that some are purporting it to be, and I suspect when the final model verification stats come out for these two storms, the ECM will not be at the bottom.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS thru 48 hours ... Ike emerging off the northwest coast of Cuba:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_048l.gif

[jinftl]

The trend with the models is mainly going to be flip-flopping since we are talking at least 120 hours out...maybe 144 or 168. Remember these same models for this same storm had south florida in the center of the cone 48 hours ago....now south florida is not in the cone.

Throw in the margin of error of forecasts 120 hours or more out...a huge question as to how strong ike will be based on how much time he spends over cuba...the significance of seemingly minor details like compass heading and speed....and you have a hot model mess! Basically models will confirm what you want them to at this point...pick the ones that work for each run.

Looking at weather maps will probably yield more clues now...add in the NHC thinking from their discussions...ike has been consistent in his wsw movement. the nhc said missing the trough is very possible. ike will be move west plus or minus a few degrees in heading for the forseeable future. In a few days the models can start to lend their support and fine-tune.

Is it the GFS that comes out at 11:30?

Yes indeed and it'll be a very anticipated run for all of us!

Running right now....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[chris_fit]

48h GFS...

Looks like the H is moving east, another one in the midwest ready to move in... let's see if it misses the weakness...

[Portastorm]

More from the 12z GFS thru 48 hrs ... check out the ridge of high pressure in the northwestern Gulf, also. Interesting!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib//gfs/12/gfs_500048048_l.shtml

[southerngale]

And remember folks. GDL and HWRF have the NOAA info in them sl landfall NOLA and east looks most likely. As I said before, EURO has been trash so far this year. Really saw the EUro huggers come out last night. You know who you are.

What? People who are in the general area of where a model has shown landfall for several runs were posting and talking about it? Showing concern? That's just crazy.

Look... this forum is to discuss the tropics, from a meteorological standpoint and for those who could be affected to talk and discuss the possibilities, ask questions, learn, show concern, etc. The staff is really getting tired of these smart-alec comments when people post about the potential threat in their areas. I mean, seriously... isn't it common sense that people are more concerned about the potential effects to their locations? This isn't unusual... it's quite normal.

This is for everyone... leave off the rude comments or you may get a warning and/or suspension. Since we can't read every post, I also ask help from all members to use the "Report a post" feature and report any questionable posts and we'll check them out. Thanks.

I hope this wasn't directed to me. I made no rude comments. In fact, I offered insight and reasoning for the novcies that come here with no ties to any particular area.. See my post just above this. Perhaps you are refering to someone else although my post is quoted.

Check your PM's.

[AJC3]

The propensity for bashing the ECM is strange. Sure, it's had a few goofy runs (e.g. 12Z SAT), however, it was the first global model to suggest a stall with Fay at longer ranges, with a track back westward across Fl and the panhandle...and it was also the first of the globals to suggest a path cross Cuba with Ike. Very far from the absolute 'trash' that some are purporting it to be, and I suspect when the final model verification stats come out for these two storms, the ECM will not be at the bottom.

Never said it would be at the bottom. However, the NHC stated a couple days ago that GFS and GFDL has proven most reliable this year.

No, but you did use the phrase "trash".

[Weatherfreak000]

60 Hours....over the GOM moving NW...

[Stratosphere747]

60 Hours....over the GOM moving NW...

?

[Weatherfreak14]

60 Hours....over the GOM moving NW...

?

Almost looks like where Gustav was.

[Sabanic]

60 Hours....over the GOM moving NW...

?

Almost looks like where Gustav was.

Looks headed to TX . . . Ooops sorry. More like LA heading NE. Hmmm

[Storm Contractor]

It is really sad to watch the downward spiral of human relations permeate what used to be a really great place to learn about the insider workings of hurricane forecasting. Do any of you people remember about 48 to 60 hours ago the arguments were southeast Florida or Northeast Bahamas/recurve? The track shifted nearly 400 miles south of there and may or may not shift 400 miles in another direction. THAT IS WHY WE ARE HERE! If the NHC could say FOR CERTAIN that the storm would be here in 5 days then there would be no reason to be here! It is all TBD (To Be Determined)!

I have watched newcomers to the board ask reasonably intelligent questions about "why this" or "how come that" and they get no response from anyone, then let someone post that they "know" a storm is going here or there and get 10 inflammatory comments about being rediculous! I really liked the board better before I registered! The "regulars were always patient and happy to teach! Thanks to all of the folks that post the important and intelligent things that they do! There are many who appreciate the knowledge and opinions form from that knowledge!

For those of you that "THINK" it would be cool to go through a Hurricane, take from someone that has helped many people through the LOOOONG frustrating process of getting a insurance company to actually pay for what they should to repair a hurricane damaged house, while they had to live with a Blue tarp and a leaking roof for over six months! IT IS NOT COOL! It is not a couple of days off of work! If you are unfortunate enough to have damage it can mean losing everything you have! It can mean living in a cramped apartment for 9 month while your home is rebuilt! It can mean losing everything and getting a check from FEMA for a whopping $29,000 for EVERYTHING YOU OWN! Hurricanes are not fun when you live through one!

To those that just seem to want to argue instead of discuss intelligently...... GO AWAY!

Sorry if this is in the wrong spot I just got aggravated!