ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS ensembles say "not so fast my friend"!!!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

Why isn't this info anywhere closely related to the GFS I just saw?

[chris_fit]

GFS ensembles say "not so fast my friend"!!!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

Wow!!! Talk about no consensus on that one!

[Stratosphere747]

This run was very much similar to the 0z Euro. LF Middle to Upper Texas coast.

[deltadog03]

LOL...I know they are hard to see...Those are the 6z GFS ensemble runs. GFS OP run would be the western outlier to its own ensembles. Most of them show LA and eastward...

[KWT]

GFS ensembles have even less resolution across the board then the GFS op run, I wouldn't put too much faith in them for details only for long range trends...

[HouTXmetro]

FWIW, all the GFS ensembles had Gustav headed to Texas while the GFS itself had Louisiana. I don't know what to make of that but the GFS ensemble is strongly showing recurve.

[vaffie]

144hrs, Ike turns NW towards Houston. Must be feeling trough now.

Yup. It's track is critical upon the edge of the 588 mb line. See how in the 6Z run, the line reaches the Georgia/Alabama border at 144 hours. But in the 12Z run it reaches the Alabama/Mississippi border--that is enough to push it towards Louisiana in one run and Texas in the next.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

[PTPatrick]

Why would OP GFS be so much further west than Ensembles. Makes sense though because GFDL and HWRF were both west of it too, with the GFS ensembles.

[Weatherfreak000]

LOL...I know they are hard to see...Those are the 6z GFS ensemble runs. GFS OP run would be the western outlier to its own ensembles. Most of them show LA and eastward...

MORE then enough reason to not discount a landfall in the North GOM.

[HouTXmetro]

Didn't the last GFS show Central Louisiana?

[TTheriot1975]

That is also the 06z...the one we are seeing now is the 12z right?

[Portastorm]

I really, REALLY hope this is a bogus run.

Not to alarm you or anything, but with the exception of the 06z runs today and yesterday, the trend has clearly been towards Texas.

Yeah gtalum, I know ... but I think we all know what that run would mean should it verify. Thank goodness that is a 156h map and not a 24h map.

[rainman]

gfs operational is alot of the times the outlier in the ensembles. the gfs ensembles are not that great in my opinion.

[SMNederlandTX]

This would be bad for the area I live, wouldn't it? Or would it be far away enough from me to matter? I live in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area. Isn't the east side of the hurricane usually the worst?

This run was very much similar to the 0z Euro. LF Middle to Upper Texas coast.

[Stratosphere747]

Those were the 6z ensemble runs, hence why they were to the E. Look for them to change.

[gtalum]

GFS ensembles say "not so fast my friend"!!!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

Those are the 06z runs. The 12z's will be further west again.

[deltadog03]

They can still be helpfull, even though they have a lower resolution then the op run.

[TTheriot1975]

What I am seeing now is the 12 z for today..back to middle Texas Coast close to Houston

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS takes Ike north from the gulf into Houston area/SE TX. Uncomfortably close to home on that one as well. Looks like the big question is when exactly Ike gets turned north whether its further east MS/AL or west TX/LA.

[vaffie]

The models will continue to shift around a lot. A turn towards New Orleans or Mobile ultimately is certainly not out of the question still, so everyone should pay attention, but the trend is for central Louisiana westward to be more vigilant right now.