ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gomwatch]

I know a lot can change in a week. This position from HPC certainly could have a major impact on a great number of people as well as gas prices. Lets hope maybe that Ike, if he goes west, will go way SW.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_pre.html

[DeanDaDream]

GFS ensembles say "not so fast my friend"!!!

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

I can't even make out where all of those tracks point to on that chart.

Here you can click on one at a time.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml

[TTheriot1975]

My Guess is that GFDL takes it to New Orleans again.

[Stormcenter]

The models will continue to shift around a lot. A turn towards New Orleans or Mobile ultimately is certainly not out of the question still, so everyone should pay attention, but the trend is for central Louisiana westward to be more vigilant right now.

Nothing is out of the question including a NE hook into Florida. IMO

[TampaFl]

Steering Flow - Appears the ridge might be weakining on it's western side over Florida & the Central & eastern GOM?

[Stormcenter]

My Guess is that GFDL takes it to New Orleans again.

Unless I'm missing something the GDFL does not take Ike into NOLA.

[SMNederlandTX]

So, does that mean it could possibly go to Florida or somewhere near there?

Steering Flow - Appears the ridge might be weakining on it's western side over Florida & the Central & eastern GOM?

[jinftl]

i wonder if the models would be thrown a curve ball if the storm they are working with in their projections is in fact not the storm that exists in a few days....by that i mean it really looks like ike is going to cross alot of the land in cuba. if that happens, he will easily be a weak hurricane...maybe even a tropical storm when he hits water again.

Presumably he will get strong...and maybe even quickly..upon returning to water. but for a time, he may be a shell of his current self. a tropical storm is not going to behave like a cat 4....this could effect steering initially, speed of motion, etc.....a whole other layer of uncertainty for the models to contend with down the road...

[mawolf3]

Seems like most media say FL is safe. so they must know lol.

[jinftl]

on that note, i am heading out of town asap.....now i am really scared....lol

Seems like most media say FL is safe. so they must know lol.

[Sanibel]

Some models sense evolving synoptics with their tails so HWRF could be sensing a trough that may not pull Ike at all but it doesn't stop it from "pulling" the model.

[jlauderdal]

on that note, i am heading out of town asap.....now i am really scared....lol

Seems like most media say FL is safe. so they must know lol.

looks like a a little blow off ike between the sofla and bahamas, just a ripple but looks ike related to me

[TTheriot1975]

GFS is done..so when do the others come out? Euro, GFDL, and HWRF?

[cycloneye]

For the new members that haved joined us recently and dont know the times that the next set of models come out here they are:

12z GFS at 11:30 AM EDT * Already out
12z CMC (Canadian)=1:00 PM EDT
12z GFDL at 1:30 PM EDT
12z HWRF at 1:30 PM EDT
12z UKMET at 1:30 PM EDT
12z NOGAPS at 2:00 PM EDT
12z EURO at 2:30 PM EDT

[TTheriot1975]

Ok forgive me..what is the difference between UKMET and Euro? When you look at models...what would Euro go by?

[KWT]

CMC should be coming out any minute now, very interesting to see what all the 12z guidence does tonight...

[timeflow]

Bump...

For the new members that haved joined us recently and dont know the times that the next set of models come out here they are:

12z GFS at 11:30 AM EDT
12z CMC (Canadian)=1:00 PM EDT
12z GFDL at 1:30 PM EDT
12z HWRF at 1:30 PM EDT
12z UKMET at 1:30 PM EDT
12z NOGAPS at 2:00 PM EDT
12z EURO at 2:30 PM EDT

[jinftl]

is that a feeder bandish feature....kind of exciting! not a cloud in the sky right now...lets see if this feature blows through...


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

on that note, i am heading out of town asap.....now i am really scared....lol

Seems like most media say FL is safe. so they must know lol.

looks like a a little blow off ike between the sofla and bahamas, just a ripple but looks ike related to me

[mawolf3]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

looks like a band from Ike

[Ed Mahmoud]

South Louisiana says the model of the Great White North...