ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[karenfromheaven]

I thought these last three model runs were interesting when viewed in order (from the NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page at:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/)



You can clearly see the GFS flip flop from 00Z to 12Z, but they line up nicely on the latest 12Z run. It will be informative it they stay together on subsequent runs.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS tracks towards Miss/Ala.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[jasons2k]

I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO back to South Texas.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090712!!/

[dwg71]

What are the odds of a deep south texas/mexico storm??
Isnt high pressure suppossed to build over texas late next week.

[Sabanic]

What are the odds of a deep south texas/mexico storm??
Isnt high pressure suppossed to build over texas late next week.

There sure seems to be a large spread right now. Going to be a very interesting week.

[HouTXmetro]

New EURO back to South Texas.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090712!!/

EURO Hugger here
But serioulsy, outside of last nights run isn't this like the 5 out of 6 runs it has targeted South Texas/Mexico?

[Johnny]

12z HWRF says hello Mobile,Alabama!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hmmm Consistency can't be discounted.

The HWRF has not been consistent with Ike...at least what I have seen from it the last couple of days. Didn' the HWRF have Ike hitting Texas last night?

[Wx_Warrior]

And that's supposed to be the GFDL replacement for NHC??????? I feel confident.

[cycloneye]

EURO is the most left outlier of all the global models.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

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I personally feel that Ike will make landfall in the NE quarter of the GOM Coast. In other words I'm calling for a landfall between SW LA and NW Florida. My reasoning is that the ridge would have to stay monsteriously strong for too many days. Not saying it can't happen, just that I feel it will not. Just my two cents worth.

[Sabanic]

12z HWRF says hello Mobile,Alabama!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hmmm Consistency can't be discounted.

The HWRF has not been consistent with Ike...at least what I have seen from it the last couple of days. Didn' the HWRF have Ike hitting Texas last night?

I don't think so. Yesterday morning it was basically in the same spot

[ronjon]

12Z NOGAPs is Pensacola - similar to HWRF. No the HWRF didn't head to TX yesterday. HWRF has been closest to GFDL except the last two runs where its east of GFDL.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008090712

[flwxwatcher]

EURO is the most left outlier of all the global models.

EURO was also the most left with Hanna and in many runs it proved to be to far left then what the actual track was. Tricky forecast no doubt this coming week.

[cycloneye]

For those members who haved joined recently,the members that are rookies about this and some members who dont remember the times the next 18z run comes out,here they are:

18z GFS at 5:30 PM
18z GFDL at 7;30 PM
18z HWRF at 7:30 PM
18z UKMET (48 hours) at 6:00 PM

All times Eastern

[Wx_Warrior]

The proverbial "no one is cleared" (LOL, sorry) can be inserted here with these models. I'll use my "i'd rather see the cone or line my way now" than next Tue/Wed claim.

Ike's emergence from Cuba will give the answers (hopefully). What some thought would be a midweek landfall is looking more latter part or early weekend.

[HouTXmetro]

If you throw in the old faithful EURO I think we have a consensus right now. HWRF and Nogaps seem to be the outliers.

[southerngale]

Hmmm Consistency can't be discounted.

The HWRF has not been consistent with Ike...at least what I have seen from it the last couple of days. Didn' the HWRF have Ike hitting Texas last night?

I don't think so. Yesterday morning it was basically in the same spot

I just checked the 12z and 18z from yesterday and yeah, it was headed in the general direction of Texas, but the run ended before a landfall anywhere. (don't know if it would have eventually recurved NE) Maybe this east trend the past few runs will stick, though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[ROCK]

New EURO back to South Texas.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090712!!/

EURO Hugger here
But serioulsy, outside of last nights run isn't this like the 5 out of 6 runs it has targeted South Texas/Mexico?

Another EURO hugger here.... Yes this is 6 runs in row showing a WGOM / NWGOM solution (WGOM=south texas NWGOM= SWLA to Corpus).....


one flip flop back in the early stages up the EC but it is and has been firmly latched on to this solution for 3 days now. You cannot discount it..... It has been the trend setter and was the first to see this solution....


The EURO rules....

[Ivanhater]

Havnt been able to track Ike this weekend, was in Mobile and Biloxi gambling!..Looks like another 2 scenario option for Ike in the Gulf...Does Ike get picked up in the Gulf or is the ridge in charge the whole time? It does seem hard to believe that Ike doesnt get picked up the whole time, especially the latitude he started more so now that we are in mid september now when troughs are more frequent, but well see...the models showing a spilt scenario...