ATL: IKE Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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Re: Re:

#4541 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:17 pm

feederband wrote:
feederband wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Also please EVER REMEMBER THIS SO THAT WE DO NOT HAVE 200 POST ABOUT THE WOBBLES... SO LISTEN VERY CLOSELY!! IF A ERC IS STARTING THE EYE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER NEW EYE, WHICH WOULD GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF CHANGES IN DIRECTION. MY BEST ADVISE THAT IS PRETTY SIMPLE IS IF YOUR LOOKING AT A LOOP PUT YOUR FINGER OVER THE CENTER AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

THANK YOU :)



There must be a trick to it because I get the same thing..


i did not say it was not moving a little north of west over the last hour but just keep that in mind over the next 12 hours or until landfall ..


But I would have to say that this is more than a "APPERARANCE"..[/quote]

read what i said again ... that statement is for future reference. ... i said "if" so "if" and ERC does start thats what will likely happen..
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Tireman4
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Re:

#4542 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:17 pm

jasons wrote:I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.


I agree with you Jason. I am in Humble (25 miles from you) and I think you maybe onto something. I dont want it either. I want a strong COLD front. I cannot believed you used the C-Word (Carla). That is a nasty word around these parts. LOL. I agree, I think that this could be a Corpus to Sabine Pass storm. This is my opinion and certainly not even close to the NHC nor the other esteemed members of this board.
Last edited by Tireman4 on Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4543 Postby BlueIce » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:18 pm

Check out what Matt called about 10 days ago on the model board.. :eek:

mattpetre wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I told my wife I'd take a break from hurricane watching until this became more of a threat to the GOM or our area, but a bet with Shiner involved is too hard to turn down. I'm putting up my 10+ days map right here and now and willing to take anyone in the Galleria area of Houston (I know you are Ed) out for a few beers after the storm or even better I'll happily go let you buy me a few... So here's my forecast track 10+ days out and I'm going to stick to it no matter how painful it may get 5 or 6 days from now :)

So here it is, anything in the extremely small cone (at us landfall) gets me many beers and even more headaches in other ways (I really don't want to see this and I realize it's just a strange form of -removed-).

*THIS IS THE POSTER'S IMAGE AND NOT IN ANY WAY TIED TO AN ACTUAL FORECAST PATH OR NHC OPINION*
*IT IS ONLY AN AMATEUR'S ATTEMPT AT PREDICTIVE MODELLING VERY FAR INTO THE FUTURE*
Image
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#4544 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:18 pm

Looks to be a strong CAT4 if not 5. Extremely impressive VIS satellite structure.
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#4545 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:18 pm

What is happening now clearly shows that sometimes the question "will it affect me" is not as easy as yes or no. It's more like, we need to wait!
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#4546 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:18 pm

Woah quite a big wobble towards the WNW/NW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:
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Re:

#4547 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:20 pm

HURAKAN wrote:What is happening now clearly shows that sometimes the question "will it affect me" is not as easy as yes or no. It's more like, we need to wait!

thats the spirit!
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Re:

#4548 Postby BlueIce » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:20 pm

KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the WNW/NW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:


Could you post some new sat links?
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Re:

#4549 Postby El Nino » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:20 pm

KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the WNW/NW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:


RECON doesn't show strenghtening or am I missing something ?
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Re:

#4550 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:20 pm

KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the WNW/NW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:



NW ???? far from NW
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Re:

#4551 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:22 pm

KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the NW/NNW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:



Agreed, most of the time I don't care for wobble posts, and I stay out of them without comment, BUT wobbles now can clearly affect when the storm will enter Cuba, and the further west it enters Cuba, means the less it will be over Cuba, meaning the less of a weakened state it will be in once it emerges Cuba....So yes, wobbles are important here...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4552 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Sanibel wrote:They deleted the NAM link from the models thread on page 92-93. It had Ike taking a big WNW turn in front of Cuba and staying offshore but then going into the Gulf on the same general track as NHC.


and why would they delete the link ....

the nam normally sux but i do recall the day with gustav the NHC using it ..


yeah i dont get that either, the nam has value in looking at flow patterns, its not meant to predict cyclone track or intensity but so what it has some use
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Re: Re:

#4553 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the WNW/NW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:



NW ???? far from NW


It's definitely gaining latitude but it's very slow(not 13 mph).

I didn't fall for those wobbles last night but this one looks believable to me.
Last edited by Brent on Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4554 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:23 pm

The question is whether this turns into a longer trend or not. If this WNW/NW trend continues then extreme South Florida may come into play again. Granted, I don't think this will happen because the high seems to be pretty strong...only time will tell.

SFT
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Re: Re:

#4555 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the WNW/NW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:



NW ???? far from NW


WNW...I agree looking at the loops again its not NW BUT thats certainly WNW IMO...

El Nino, in terms of apperence its strengthening though agreed recon doesn't really suggest that just yet.
Last edited by KWT on Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#4556 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:23 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the NW/NNW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:



Agreed, most of the time I don't care for wobble posts, and I stay out of them without comment, BUT wobbles now can clearly affect when the storm will enter Cuba, and the further west it enters Cuba, means the less it will be over Cuba, meaning the less of a weakened state it will be in once it emerges Cuba....So yes, wobbles are important here...


especially if it wobbles on and off cuba like ivan did on the south coast of jamaica
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4557 Postby cpdaman » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:24 pm

and another wobble

thru 1910 utc


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis
Last edited by cpdaman on Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#4558 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:24 pm

Brent wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
KWT wrote:Woah quite a big wobble towards the WNW/NW in the last couple of hours, makes a huge difference to Cuba as it will shunt landfall down Cuba a little more when it does eventually track due west again, which it will.

No doubt Ike's strengthening again... :eek:



NW ???? far from NW


It looks more like due north to me(I even slowed the loop down and looked at it frame by frame) but it could be an illusion.

I didn't fall for those wobbles last night but this one looks believable to me.


For those that want to keep up with wobbles I found this satellite loop very helpful.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html
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#4559 Postby Vortex » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:25 pm

While Nam should never be used for tropical forecasting it does quite well with the synoptics and it was the only model that had Ike parrallel the cuban coast...The 18z run of NAM will start running in about 20 minutes.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion

#4560 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:26 pm

Ah, I'm guilty of wobble watching.

We forgot to consider inter-island imbalances in that passage.
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