ATL: IKE Discussion

[Tom8]

Could you post some new sat links?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Vortex]

The motion for the last hour is about 280

[AL Chili Pepper]

and another wobble

thru 1910 utc


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

I thought NW until I noticed the angle they have. Look at Cuba..haha.

[cycloneye]

3:15 PM EDT

[Numlock]

This "wobble" is definitely not minor. In fact, in the last few frames, the heading looks even further north. This is starting to look like more of a solid turn. Good news for eastern Cuba, not good news for the United States.

[BlueIce]

Could you post some new sat links?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Thanks Tom.

This storm has been almost picture perfect from the very beginning. Looks like the hurricane example out of my Severe and Unusual Weather text. Cuba better start wishing this away very quickly IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it's wobbling so much, then perhaps it's a weeble.

[KWT]

Looks like to me motion is around 285 looking at the high resolution sat imagery, looks like its going to come inland a little further to the west then I first thought.

[CrazyC83]

Recon only supports 105 kt at this point though...although that was a drop in the E eyewall (weaker side usually) so a case could be made for a higher intensity.

[feederband]

How long to a wobble is not a wobble?

[KWT]

Does Ike have a double eyewall on recon or not crazy?

[Brent]

2 hours apart:

[wxman57]

2hr movement 299 deg. at 11.5 kts. Probably just a temporary jog. It's always more noticeable near land.

[Bon]

I remember some discussion this morning on the board of a potential weakness in the high around this area...could this be affecting its movement?

[cycloneye]

2hr movement 299 deg. at 11.5 kts. Probably just a temporary jog. It's always more noticeable near land.

WOW! WNW to NW.

[cape_escape]

If you look back through the Ike history graphics, in my opinion, it looks like he's more on the path that the NHC had on Sept 5th at the 11 am time....or am I way off here?

Heres the linkhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/200 ... p_5W.shtml

And I am way far from being any kind or forecaster or making any suggestions...

[Aric Dunn]

Does Ike have a double eyewall on recon or not crazy?

not a closed one .. there was some evidence of a outer wind maxima on the outbound in the western quad but nothing in the east quad

[CronkPSU]

if nothing else this wobble is keeping Ike away from the higher mountains on the SE coast of Cuba

[Brent]

2hr movement 299 deg. at 11.5 kts. Probably just a temporary jog. It's always more noticeable near land.

Good, I'm not crazy. I was afraid I was falling for the non-existent wobbles.

[CronkPSU]

if nothing else this "wobble" is keeping Ike away from the higher mountains on the SE coast of Cuba

sorry double post