ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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Sabanic
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2341 Postby Sabanic » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:25 pm

ROCK wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:


EURO Hugger here :)
But serioulsy, outside of last nights run isn't this like the 5 out of 6 runs it has targeted South Texas/Mexico?



Another EURO hugger here.... :lol: Yes this is 6 runs in row showing a WGOM / NWGOM solution (WGOM=south texas NWGOM= SWLA to Corpus).....


one flip flop back in the early stages up the EC but it is and has been firmly latched on to this solution for 3 days now. You cannot discount it..... It has been the trend setter and was the first to see this solution....


The EURO rules.... :lol:


Comin' your way then. Best be ready.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2342 Postby dizzyfish » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:27 pm

Quick question...and I hope this doesn't get buried... what will this do to the future track of Ike?

Small snip from this afternoons NWS Tampa discussion....
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTH FL LIFTS NORTH.
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#2343 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:28 pm

Does look like the models are shifting towards Texas now but far too early to make that call...

Remember Rita was meant to be a south texas hit but the models had it too far west, don't be surprised if the same sort of thing happens...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2344 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:30 pm

jasons wrote:I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.



I dont either Jason......

for some of you that bash me for my lame attempt at humor or my obvious love for the EURO, you all need to know I have a vested interest in Ike. My parents retired on the West End of Galveston this year. No sea wall 100 yrds from the beach......they risk losing everything if Ike comes a calling at whatever intensity. SO please if you want to label me a WC, please do so by PM's for further discussion...... :D
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2345 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:30 pm

KWT, remember, this was supposed to recurve up the EC?????

Anytime a storm rears its head into the GOM, anyone can get it. Who is saying is a South Texas storm? 1 Model - EURO.

This isn't 2005 either but it is getting close to mid-sept. and I'm with the 'hater on this, hard to believe a trough doesn't pick him up but if it stays further south and due west, it may not.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2346 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:32 pm

quote="ROCK"]
HouTXmetro wrote:


EURO Hugger here :)
But serioulsy, outside of last nights run isn't this like the 5 out of 6 runs it has targeted South Texas/Mexico?



Another EURO hugger here.... :lol: Yes this is 6 runs in row showing a WGOM / NWGOM solution (WGOM=south texas NWGOM= SWLA to Corpus).....


one flip flop back in the early stages up the EC but it is and has been firmly latched on to this solution for 3 days now. You cannot discount it..... It has been the trend setter and was the first to see this solution....


The EURO rules.... :lol:[/quote]

Comin' your way then. Best be ready.[/quote]


You got some model guidances coming your way also...... :wink: could be a trend....
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2347 Postby Sabanic » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:33 pm

ROCK wrote:
jasons wrote:I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.



I dont either Jason......

for some of you that bash me for my lame attempt at humor or my obvious love for the EURO, you all need to know I have a vested interest in Ike. My parents retired on the West End of Galveston this year. No sea wall 100 yrds from the beach......they risk losing everything if Ike comes a calling at whatever intensity. SO please if you want to label me a WC, please do so by PM's for further discussion...... :D


Understood rock, but there are plenty of people here that also have a vested interest in Ike. Speaking for myself, I only live 2 miles from the west side of Mobile Bay.
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Re:

#2348 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:33 pm

KWT wrote:Does look like the models are shifting towards Texas now but far too early to make that call...

Remember Rita was meant to be a south texas hit but the models had it too far west, don't be surprised if the same sort of thing happens...


That's my reasoning. I'm taking the EURO which is showing South Texas, and throwing in climatology which would likeluy lift it north of South Texas. That's how I come up with a NW Gulf scenario.

Amateur and Unofficial Forecast
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Re:

#2349 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:34 pm

KWT wrote:Does look like the models are shifting towards Texas now but far too early to make that call...

Remember Rita was meant to be a south texas hit but the models had it too far west, don't be surprised if the same sort of thing happens...


You are correct way too early to call any final landfall.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2350 Postby stormy1970al » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:36 pm

Sabanic wrote:
ROCK wrote:
jasons wrote:I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.



I dont either Jason......

for some of you that bash me for my lame attempt at humor or my obvious love for the EURO, you all need to know I have a vested interest in Ike. My parents retired on the West End of Galveston this year. No sea wall 100 yrds from the beach......they risk losing everything if Ike comes a calling at whatever intensity. SO please if you want to label me a WC, please do so by PM's for further discussion...... :D


Understood rock, but there are plenty of people here that also have a vested interest in Ike. Speaking for myself, I only live 2 miles from the west side of Mobile Bay.


I know what you mean. I live about 3 miles from the East side of Mobile Bay and 2 miles from Weeks Bay.
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#2351 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:36 pm

I hear you Sabanic....lets hope Cuba does a number on Ike and he never regains his former strength where ever he goes....
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Re:

#2352 Postby Sabanic » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:37 pm

ROCK wrote:I hear you Sabanic....lets hope Cuba does a number on Ike and he never regains his former strength where ever he goes....


That's exactly what we need to happen Brother, but unfortunately for now, and the rest of the week we'll probably all be here straining our eyeballs wondering what Ike is going to do.
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Re:

#2353 Postby stormy1970al » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:40 pm

ROCK wrote:I hear you Sabanic....lets hope Cuba does a number on Ike and he never regains his former strength where ever he goes....


May he fizzle out! No one on the Gulf Coast wants this storm.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2354 Postby TampaFl » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:43 pm

Cuban radar shows more w to wnw movement:


Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2355 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:52 pm

ROCK wrote:
jasons wrote:I don't think the HWRF scenario will play-out. I just don't see the trough picking-it up.

By late week, the ridge is still in control and the next incoming trough is positivlely-tilted. I just don't see this one going north into LA unfortunately.

The GFS showing this deep of a storm on a low-res model is downright scary. It looks like Carla II.

My inital call is Corpus to Sabine Pass.

Yes, I live in Texas. No, I don't want it.



I dont either Jason......

for some of you that bash me for my lame attempt at humor or my obvious love for the EURO, you all need to know I have a vested interest in Ike. My parents retired on the West End of Galveston this year. No sea wall 100 yrds from the beach......they risk losing everything if Ike comes a calling at whatever intensity. SO please if you want to label me a WC, please do so by PM's for further discussion...... :D


Umm, this is suppose to be a dead subject now according to Admin. You may want to go back and read that post by SouthernGale. And by the way no one labeled you a WC. Simply stated not a good idea to put so much stock in one model some 7 days out. Nuff said. I'm done. Check out the post and lets move on.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2356 Postby HurricaneQueen » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:52 pm

Just for giggles, go to this site: http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml and click on APO3. (down near the bottom of the list on right side)

I have never hear of this model and don't buy into it's projection but it certainly does emphasis the wide divergence of the models. Just thought it might lighten the mood. :D

Lynn
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2357 Postby stormy1970al » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:55 pm

I was wondering the same thing about the track. It seemed to be N of the Tropical tracking points but wasn't sure if it was a wobble. I guess time will tell.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2358 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 3:12 pm

Interesting spread though the majority show a longer term track towards Texas. Given the uncertainty of the movement over the last few hours the track may be adjusted slightly to the N but still showing Texas to W Louisiana at the end.

Image
Image
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#2359 Postby Agua » Sun Sep 07, 2008 3:14 pm

Give it three runs after it clears Cuba and the models ought to have a handle on it.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2360 Postby mawolf3 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 3:16 pm

Ike does apear to be moving wnw or even nw the past few hours. time will tell
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