ATL: IKE Discussion

[artist]

While Nam should never be used for tropical forecasting it does quite well with the synoptics and it was the only model that had Ike parrallel the cuban coast...The 18z run of NAM will start running in about 20 minutes.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/namsvrfcst/

scroll down for the 500, etc.

[fasterdisaster]

also what ever thoughts of a ERC seem to be going out the door as very intense convection is firing and intensifying the inner core after some warming of it earlier... actually this present trend with the eye contracting and intense convection around the inner core would suggest intensification shortly..

I'm not sure, his SW quadrant is asymmetric to the rounder more intense convection and on visible it looks like another eyewall is POSSIBLY forming. Just my untrained eyes obviously.

but watch trend with the loop again in IR .. not visible ..


also ,.... this is the opposite of a an ERC

The green slot to the west of the red ring is mainly what I'm looking at as a possibly eyewall. You could be right but I'm not sure yet.

[Aric Dunn]

3:45 PM EDT:

what and erc looks like...

[HURAKAN]

How long you can have a wooble?

[jlauderdal]

If your along the se coast of florida beaches step outside and look to the east and southeast and there is an amazing cloud presentation associated with what appears to be the very very outer part of Ike's circulation..Simply beautiful to look at right now!

good observation vortex, that first band is on the scene

[jinftl]

if NHC makes no mention of it at 5pm...then apparently a long time!

How long you can have a wooble?

[HarlequinBoy]

Well I usually have a tough time noticing these "wobbles" but I do see this one.

I still think a Cuban landfall is imminent, but I remember thinking yesterday this was going to hit the southeast coast, not the north central.

[shah8]

It does not need to last much longer before the clearance means that it has enough space to keep offshore if it resumes W motion, and then the *forcasted* WNW motion. Now, if this weeble develops into an actual path, this is really, really bad news for someone in the CONUS.

[fasterdisaster]

If he were going through an ERC (not saying he is, just IF he was as is possibly happening) would he finish it before Cuban landfall?

[Dean4Storms]

Whoa, I come back from my workout and see this a definite WNW movement. This could be devastating to the Keys of this motion continues.

[Aric Dunn]

If he were going through an ERC (not saying he is, just IF he was as is possibly happening) would he finish it before Cuban landfall?

depends on if this motion it has continues long enough ...

[GoneBabyGone]

So what would this "unexpected" motion (assuming it's more than a wobble) mean for us in Louisiana? Worsen our prospects?

[feederband]

Lets call it a stair step in the wrong direction at this point..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

Every minute Ike moves not like the forecast track point,is one minute less that the eye may have inside Cuba and that will have huge implications down the road.

[jinftl]

some northward bump has taken place as ike was in line to meet cuba in the small indentation just west of 75W not long ago. Now he may pass north of that indentation...even at 270 heading and not meet land until 76W or so.

if NHC makes no mention of it at 5pm...then apparently a long time!

How long you can have a wooble?

[gatorcane]

Ike is moving WNW now....and looks like he will miss the next forecast point to the north by a substantial amount

I see a NW wobble also:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

[tracyswfla]

Well isn't this interesting. Has anyone calculated the amount of time Ike has been "stair stepping" to the North?

[Aric Dunn]

So what would this "unexpected" motion (assuming it's more than a wobble) mean for us in Louisiana? Worsen our prospects?

way to far out...



also for those who are paying attention the recon .. NO outer wind Maxima in the NE qaud..

if a ERC is starting its taking its time.. but right now it does not seem so ...


earlier i though my have been but recent trend indicate a not yet ..

edit:
well i guess i will eat my words.. with this excelent microwave pass.

although it only confirms recon .. with no outer wind maxima except the west quad.. on this image looks like possibly some concentric features trying to form .. man I love the tropics one sec everything points to one thing then an hour later something else.. oh well..

[Canelaw99]

So what would this "unexpected" motion (assuming it's more than a wobble) mean for us in Louisiana? Worsen our prospects?

Nothing personal, but we have to get through the implications for the Keys first before we'll have any idea on the Gulf Coast impacts I'm afraid. You'll just have to have lots of coffee for the watching and waiting this week.