ATL: IKE Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Notice that he appears to be strengthening at the same time this jog WNW began? He looks better now than I ever remember him since way out in the Atlantic. I believe the strengthening is allowing him to step into the ridge harder as he tries to go poleward.

[GoneBabyGone]

So what would this "unexpected" motion (assuming it's more than a wobble) mean for us in Louisiana? Worsen our prospects?

Nothing personal, but we have to get through the implications for the Keys first before we'll have any idea on the Gulf Coast impacts I'm afraid. You'll just have to have lots of coffee for the watching and waiting this week.

Fair enough. I think I have the right to be a bit anxious though lol

[gatorcane]

Notice that he appears to be strengthening at the same time this job WNW began? He looks better now than I ever remember him since way out in the Atlantic. I believe the strengthening is allowing him to step into the ridge harder as he tries to go poleward.

I hope not I know alot of people in Southern Florida have let their guard down despite the NHC mentioning South Florida in each advisory.

[MiamiensisWx]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

Bump

[jinftl]

not over mountains weakening like he appeared to be on track for by this time already....he could be in cuba in 2 hours and this will all be the wobble scare....but he is not weakening now and mainland south fl was taken out cone yesterday...just felt like throwing that out there...lol


the kicker will be when the nhc says ike is on track in the 5pm discussion and no changes being made

Ike is moving WNW now....and looks like he will miss the next forecast point to the north by a substantial amount

[gatorcane]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

Bump

yeah I see a small "west" wobble in the last frame --- but I think Ike is generally moving WNW now....

needs to be closely watched.

[MiamiensisWx]

The WNW "movement" is the wobble, gator... Ike is "adjusting" back to the average long term W movement at the end.

[Aric Dunn]

So what would this "unexpected" motion (assuming it's more than a wobble) mean for us in Louisiana? Worsen our prospects?

way to far out...



also for those who are paying attention the recon .. NO outer wind Maxima in the NE qaud..

if a ERC is starting its taking its time.. but right now it does not seem so ...


earlier i though my have been but recent trend indicate a not yet ..

edit:
well i guess i will eat my words.. with this excelent microwave pass.

although it only confirms recon .. with no outer wind maxima except the west quad.. on this image looks like possibly some concentric features trying to form .. man I love the tropics one sec everything points to one thing then an hour later something else.. oh well..

[Canelaw99]

So what would this "unexpected" motion (assuming it's more than a wobble) mean for us in Louisiana? Worsen our prospects?

Nothing personal, but we have to get through the implications for the Keys first before we'll have any idea on the Gulf Coast impacts I'm afraid. You'll just have to have lots of coffee for the watching and waiting this week.

Fair enough. I think I have the right to be a bit anxious though lol

You sure do!! LOL And we'll all be right here with ya this week. I, for one, am ready for Dec. 1 and we haven't even had much of a storm here yet....just a lot of watching and waiting anxiously with Fay, Gustav, Hannah, and now Ike.

[tpr1967]

Yep wobble watching got to love it.

[HarlequinBoy]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

Bump

I do. Gaining just a small amount of latitude has probably added at least a few hours that he'll remain over water.

And also changes the landfall location.

[jinftl]

the psychology...and news headlines...generated when the nhc took south florida mainland out of the cone altogether last night gave the message that this is not out storm...on any level...i would have almost left us in the cone just to keep people on guard a bit longer...basically 'no watch, no cone, no awareness'


how many residents read the actual nhc advisory where they happen to mention resident of south fl should keep alert...most people listen to the news which began with 'out of the cone!'

Notice that he appears to be strengthening at the same time this job WNW began? He looks better now than I ever remember him since way out in the Atlantic. I believe the strengthening is allowing him to step into the ridge harder as he tries to go poleward.

I hope not I know alot of people in Southern Florida have let their guard down despite the NHC mentioning South Florida in each advisory.

[gatorcane]

The WNW "movement" is the wobble, gator... Ike is "adjusting" back to the average long term W movement at the end.

Look at this loop. Ike is heading to miss the second forecast point to the north by a substantial amount:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[CronkPSU]

Recent visible satellite data (from another site) suggests that the wobble has ended per the latest frame:

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zpgp5z.gif

Note the jog back to the west at the end. I don't see any "huge implications" of the wobble...

you mean besides missing all the mountains on the SE coast and spending less time over Cuba?

[Aristotle]

This is not going to get assistance weakening from the dry air. That loop of dry air is getting squeezed out and its not getting anywhere close to the core. I was hoping this thing would get assistance weakening from this dry air. But that will not be the case.

"Please help us Obi Wan, Cuba is our only hope"

[gatorcane]

The WNW "movement" is the wobble, gator... Ike is "adjusting" back to the average long term W movement at the end.

Look at this loop. Ike is heading to miss the second forecast point to the north by a substantial amount:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

also look at this loop. What a big WNW wobble it is then:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Weatherfreak14]

It seems that the Direction change was a MAJOR wobble and a very critical one... Hopefully another wobble like that does not happen

[MiamiensisWx]

Paper on TC movement:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap4/se100.htm

Ike has likely experienced a trochoidal wobble.

[gatorcane]

It seems that the Direction change was a MAJOR wobble and a very critical one... Hopefully another wobble like that does not happen

agreed major because its still not over Cuba .

[tracyswfla]

Well, let's see if NHC puts S. Florida back in the cone. Can canes create there own "atmosphere?"