ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

I don't see why this matters, the fact is he has been moving WNW to NW over the last three hours. The NHC uses 6+ hour movements.

[fasterdisaster]

Yep Crazy not surprising, this make forecasting Ike over land a touch more interesting given its inner core is in state of flux before landfall, with no one central core I've got to wonder what difference this will make overland?

Well if he moves north of the forecast he could finish the ERC before landfall.

[feederband]

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

I don't see why this matters, the fact is he has been moving WNW to NW over the last three hours. The NHC uses 6+ hour movements.

A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY


That doesn't matter?

[fasterdisaster]

well NHC is shifting the cone south yet again. Mexico threat?

The NHC doesn't shift the cone at intermediate advisories, it's just wunderground's format.

[Sabanic]

Looks like TX bound for sure. 5PM discussion leaves little doubt. They seem very confident.

[Vblazer]

Wow, could IKE be trying to parallel the Cuban North Coast!, seems like new overall motion is WNW., could he be trying to follow climatology and bust through the ridge, even though the synoptic set-up shouldn't allow him too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

TG

im not sure ike knows what climatology is...

[gatorcane]

well Ike is giving the NHC a rough time needless to say...didn't they mention in the 11AM discussion models had stopped shifting south? Guess not.

Look at this animation of the cone over time....its bent to the NW but the whole cone just keeps shifting west each advisory...I think it has shifted over 800 miles west...or so:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[KWT]

NHC still forecasting a hurricane when Ike emerges, I've got to admit I'll be very surprised if Ike is a hurricane by the time it makes it into the GoM.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The weebles and wobbles don't matter much unless the eye misses Cuba. Then there could be some real problems fo Key West.

[fasterdisaster]

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

I don't see why this matters, the fact is he has been moving WNW to NW over the last three hours. The NHC uses 6+ hour movements.

A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY


That doesn't matter?

If he moved WNW he would be only grazing the coast.

[jinftl]

well no mention of any impacts in south fl by nhc...will keep an eye out to see if there are any wobbles during the evening that may change that...but nhc lowered probablilty of ts winds in miami from 41% to 34% at 5pm so 'a whole lot of useless' was apparently in my head the last hour about a new risk!

[Lowpressure]

Wow, could IKE be trying to parallel the Cuban North Coast!, seems like new overall motion is WNW., could he be trying to follow climatology and bust through the ridge, even though the synoptic set-up shouldn't allow him too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

TG

Watching that same thing and wondering. Cleary WNW over the last three hours.

[Dean4Storms]

NHC now calling for a West movement from his current position tonight.

[fasterdisaster]

NHC still forecasting a hurricane when Ike emerges, I've got to admit I'll be very surprised if Ike is a hurricane by the time it makes it into the GoM.

If he grazes the coast he likely will be a hurricane.

[Tom8]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ike will bonce and will cheange the course

PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 3:02 am

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Now heading slightly south of west again it seems, heading take sit close to the northern most part of east Cuba.

[feederband]

I don't see why this matters, the fact is he has been moving WNW to NW over the last three hours. The NHC uses 6+ hour movements.

A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY


That doesn't matter?[/quote]

If he moved WNW he would be only grazing the coast.[/quote]

HMMMM...So that probably matters then huh?

[Canelaw99]

NHC now calling for a West movement from his current position tonight.

They're calling for a W to WNW motion tonight....it's that NW part that might be concerning....

[Lowpressure]

Now heading slightly south of west again it seems, heading take sit close to the northern most part of east Cuba.

Don't mean to sound harsh, but where are you seeing anything close to south of due west? Loops are very clearly wnw.