ATL: IKE Discussion

[Category 5]

Serious question.

We look at the NAM... WHY?

[feederband]

this convinces me at the moment of a definate wsw movement. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Did not show me a wsw...

[hial2]

I would like to renew my wager from the Edouard thread and say I will film myself dancing in a ballerina tutu in downtown Miami if Ike gets to Mexico. (NOT INCLUDING THE YUCATAN ) I said I'd do that if Edouard made it to Louisiana 6 or so hours before landfall when everyone thought he was, and I was right, so I'll give you all a second chance.

I think you're looking for an excuse to dance in a tutu in public and appear on You Tube..c'mon..fess up!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tomorrow being the 108th anniversary, the 1900 Galveston Hurricane crossed Cuba from the Caribbean, after passing over/near Antigua. It passed 60ºW well South of 24ºN

[stormy1970al]

i think this link provides pretty good accuracy of the movement. pretty much a no brainer..wsw!! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Looks like it is going W or WNW near the end of that but then again I am not a professional. If my memory serves me right but I believe it did go WSW before hitting the turks and caicos. Of course I could be wrong.

[chris_fit]

i think this link provides pretty good accuracy of the movement. pretty much a no brainer..wsw!! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

It was earlier today... That graphic is a little old.

[KWT]

Nothing lower for a cyclone to do then to ride up the rim of Cuba or Hati. Looks like this one wents to do just that. If it does I expect he will come out a 50 knot tropical storm.

Yep I agree I doubt this emerges as a cane if it takes the track NHC expect, if it can get onto the coast, maybe even get into the waters of the Caribbean then that will help its cause out but the enxt 36hrs are going to be hard to watch in terms of how Ike will likely fall apart...knowing that its got 3-5 days to ramp all the way back upto similar strength as a much larger hurricane...

[Sabanic]

One thing to remember everyone, and that is the if Ike were to go to Texas that is 6+ days out. So very much can change between now and then.

[chris_fit]

Why hasn't GOES updated in over an hour?

[KWT]

Sabanic, yep plenty of time yet to watch and see how the models resolve the issues at hand. The other thing thats I ckeep saying is Ike has likely a very long time over the Gulf of Mexico which is warm and so even if its messy and rather loose its got time to slowly build itself up, won't do anything too rapidly though..

[Canelaw99]

now if it appears a landfall is possible in the keys...essentially the very right side of the 3-day cone track...i can't see how that wouldnt result in at least ts warnings in dade and broward being added monday

such a track with a keys landfall would be unexpected for sure by the public...but arguably it really should not be since that is part of the cone and isn't there equal probability of the storm being anywhere in the cone?

But, let's face it, most folks down here in 'all clear' and 'i guess i have work and school mode' right now

Of course everyone feels in the clear down here. Not one of our local stations (that we saw) provided any break-in coverage of the 5pm advisory. Our best hope of updated info is NBC 6 news at 6...I feel for people here who rely solely on the TV media to get their info because there's not a lot out there right now. I was sure at least one of the stations would come on at 5 to update folks. If Ike goes anywhere near that right side of the cone, a ton of people will be surprised, that's for sure.

I'm amused reading what seems to be "concern" about possible TS Watches or Warnings for Dade and/or Broward.
ANd the "ton" of people who will be surprised.
By What???? TS wind gusts????
This after a real threat a couple of days ago that the area might be facing a Cat 3/4 on Tuesday.

Well, Jay (Nexrad) seems to think that there will not be any watches or warnings for the area.
And even "if" there were; BIG DEAL!

Some rain and gusts to 30 or 40 is what we got a couple of nights ago from Hanna without any watches or warnings.
It just does not matter, folks!!

We are talking the same thing we get from afternoon T-storms!
That's it.

For any of you "w"-caters, face it; we are not getting Ike here.
I am thrilled and hope that our luck continues the rest of the season.

I feel for someone in the GOM area who is going to get this storm but as for South Florida; good riddance and pray for whomever is unfortunate enough to feel the wrath of Ike.

FCI, take it easy.....no one here is wishing for this storm, I can assure you. My post that you quoted was in direct response to the post by jinftl regarding what would happen if the storm tracked on the far right side of the cone. IF, not when, IF the storm did that, it would be a surprise. That's all that was being said. Relax please....

[Dean4Storms]

Currently it is moving due west.

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the outer eyewall appears to be brushing the coastline now, won't be long before more of the inner core is brushing the coast, the eyewall probably has a good 3-5hrs yet before it starts to come inland.

[jusforsean]

this convinces me at the moment of a definate wsw movement. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

wow very cool yes you can see it for sure how often does it update i would love to look in an hour to see how it is going it really gives you a good look at the motion

[stormhorn]

Gulf Shores, Al. says, "Take a hike, Ike!"
Go get ya some Texas BBQ

[Storm Contractor]

Pretty clear here, overlay the Lat/Long and you can watch it ride just north of due west just north of 21.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-wv.html

[jinftl]

Look, there is a 3-day cone that goes into the middle keys...stilll. I am not sure....wait...actually, yes i am sure, that understanding that some of the tracks that are in the cone would result in a landfalling storm in the keys with a hurricane windfield brushing south dade and ts winds well into broward is "-removed-". Of course i am going to talk about it, ask questions about it here...you see, this is a board for people who are interested in the such things.

I have enjoyed the experience of tracking ike on s2k...esp when it became clear his eye would not be close enough to meet eye to eye with mine. It is called interest...enthusiasm...and gosh darn it, i am going to say it, being on this board and engaging in exchanges over storms is fun...at times.

I wish for many things in my life but I am not so blissful in my ignorance to actually really want a hurricane again. The 2 weeks with no power after Wilma, the resulting $12,000 special assement for damages on my condo that i had to refinance my mortgage to pay...nor does the thought of an hour without a/c now...let alone days of no power give me any kind of thrills.

If I could break away from my -removed- bliss i would be curious to go survey 10 people in the public and ask them if they were aware that one small part of the 3-day cone would actually bring tropical storm force winds with maybe hurricane gusts to Miami, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Boca...on Tuesday. How many would say that the storm has passed, that we are in the clear?

As much of a hoot as that would be, I am going to have some dinner instead, than be back here and do what i enjoy doing on this site some more. Call me clairvoyant, i just can't help but think you will be on. here...reading the posts as well....interesting....an eventful non-event.

now if it appears a landfall is possible in the keys...essentially the very right side of the 3-day cone track...i can't see how that wouldnt result in at least ts warnings in dade and broward being added monday

such a track with a keys landfall would be unexpected for sure by the public...but arguably it really should not be since that is part of the cone and isn't there equal probability of the storm being anywhere in the cone?

But, let's face it, most folks down here in 'all clear' and 'i guess i have work and school mode' right now

Of course everyone feels in the clear down here. Not one of our local stations (that we saw) provided any break-in coverage of the 5pm advisory. Our best hope of updated info is NBC 6 news at 6...I feel for people here who rely solely on the TV media to get their info because there's not a lot out there right now. I was sure at least one of the stations would come on at 5 to update folks. If Ike goes anywhere near that right side of the cone, a ton of people will be surprised, that's for sure.

I'm amused reading what seems to be "concern" about possible TS Watches or Warnings for Dade and/or Broward.
ANd the "ton" of people who will be surprised.
By What???? TS wind gusts????
This after a real threat a couple of days ago that the area might be facing a Cat 3/4 on Tuesday.

Well, Jay (Nexrad) seems to think that there will not be any watches or warnings for the area.
And even "if" there were; BIG DEAL!

Some rain and gusts to 30 or 40 is what we got a couple of nights ago from Hanna without any watches or warnings.
It just does not matter, folks!!

We are talking the same thing we get from afternoon T-storms!
That's it.

For any of you "w"-caters, face it; we are not getting Ike here.
I am thrilled and hope that our luck continues the rest of the season.

I feel for someone in the GOM area who is going to get this storm but as for South Florida; good riddance and pray for whomever is unfortunate enough to feel the wrath of Ike.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pretty clear here, overlay the Lat/Long and you can watch it ride just north of due west just north of 21.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-wv.html

If it goes just north of west through Cuba...It will spend about 2 or so days over Cuba. I don't expect more then a 50 knot tropical storms once it gets off. After that it won't have a innercore and will take at least 36 hours to rebuild.

Georges never came back to what he once was after rolling over Cuba. Hell, Isidore after going over the flat Yucatan was a corest system.

[KWT]

To be fair Matt though Georges hit like 7 islands on the way through...and still hit as a top end 2 like Gustav so it was still powerful.

As for Ike, indeed it'll lack an inner core out of Cuba but we shall have to wait and see how long it takes, I think it would take about 24-36hrs to rebuild that inner core when it comes out of Cuba, the track is key because if it goes further west it has enough time to restrengthen upto hurricane strength with space to spare.

[Sanibel]

If the NAM track is to verify Ike will do another WNW wobble from here.