ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

Taking him due west through 36 hours, looks like a bad start.

Why? It's been moving essentially due W and in fact it's been 'wobbling' S of due W over the last hour.

[srainhoutx]

Just SSE of Dry Tortugas at 54 hours

[vaffie]

Ridge is stronger this run. Eastern Gulf weakness at 42 hours gone compared to previous run.

Compare:
Old
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif
New
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[deltadog03]

18z GFS looks to be a little E-NE off of cuba than the 12z run..

[vaffie]

At 54, it looks like it has a more northerly component coming off Cuba than for the earlier run. Turning more to the west at 60 hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFS looks to be a little E-NE off of cuba than the 12z run..

One thing to notice for FL residents GFS is showing 4-6 inches of rain along the East coast for mutiple runs now,guessing due to the Easterly fetch...

[vaffie]

At 72 hours it looks to be in pretty much the exact same position, perhaps a few miles further westward than at the same time for the previous run.

[Shawee]

Just for giggles, go to this site: http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml and click on APO3. (down near the bottom of the list on right side)

I have never hear of this model and don't buy into it's projection but it certainly does emphasis the wide divergence of the models. Just thought it might lighten the mood.

Lynn

If you wnat a real laugh, click on all of the "APO's"... the only thing it doesn't hit is Australia, I i may just have not found the button... and yes, KTW, it has it coming to the UK also!

It is interesting that the same BOC feature that reared it's head during gus's approach seems to be re-curring; Hopefully that, some shear and and her travels over my new favorite mountains in all the world will tame her (I know it's name is ike, but I'm old school).

I sincerely hope that no one takes a hard hit from this system. I think the NHC has forcasted very well; though to could certainly take a pretty sharp turn pole-ward between fronts later in her travels. I don't see her flaring/bombing again past a 3... but this is the gulf and it is September.

BTW, for full disclosure, I am NOT a pro-met (probably obvious, huh?), have kept most of my window boards up fron Gustov in New Orleans and have reservations in N. LA for Friday night just in case...

good luck everyone!!!!
the dome was rocking today... Go Saints!!

[vaffie]

At 84 hours gaining latitude slightly faster than in previous run, but still wnw.

[AL Chili Pepper]

the 850 vortex on the new run is in exactly the same spot as it was in the 12Z run at 72 vs 84 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

Taking him due west through 36 hours, looks like a bad start.

Why? It's been moving essentially due W and in fact it's been 'wobbling' S of due W over the last hour.

Because the NHC expects it to be moving WNW from current obs and model consensus. I think the GFS takes it more westward because it has Ike moving over the whole length just about of Cuba, if it did that it might stay more to the west being in a weaker state, otherwise it should begin stair stepping into the ridge.

[Stratosphere747]

Still shifting to the NW at 96...

[Stratosphere747]

Taking him due west through 36 hours, looks like a bad start.

Why? It's been moving essentially due W and in fact it's been 'wobbling' S of due W over the last hour.

Because the NHC expects it to be moving WNW from current obs and model consensus. I think the GFS takes it more westward because it has Ike moving over the whole length just about of Cuba, if it did that it might stay more to the west being in a weaker state, otherwise it should begin stair stepping into the ridge.

Well that has no bearing on what the model run shows, so it shouldn't be judged as a "bad start" because it's not following the heading the NHC assumes Ike will take. It's one model run and will be blended with the others.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A little farther North than the NAM, but the same almost due West track that might keep landfall South of Texas. So far.

[Stratosphere747]

Central GOM @ 108 -

[vaffie]

Moving due west at 108 hours, due south of New Orleans and due east of Brownsville.

[vaffie]

Ridge breaking down at 114 hours over Texas--unlike in previous run. May turn to the north earlier this run.

[AL Chili Pepper]

looks like a big shift north at 120 hrs.

[srainhoutx]

Trough still hung up over the Rockies at 120 Hrs.

[Stratosphere747]

Definite breakdown of the ridge.