ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Sabanic]

HWRF hooks north at the very end of the cycle...toward SW LA

Thought it took it into this area rockyman? Got a link?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[SCUBAdude]

One thing 18z did do is, as previously stated, further EAST. I also noticed that the quick hook N then NE does happen. Ridge breaks down quicker as well. Give this 12-18 more hours in the gom, then that quick hook could easily happen further east.

Ok dog, you've said it twice now so what do you have in mind by saying further east? You talking like central LA or more like New Orleans/MS/AL area or what? We're all a little nervous around here and counting our blessings with Gustof and hoping our luck doesn't run out.
SD

[rockyman]

HWRF hooks north at the very end of the cycle...toward SW LA

Thought it took it into this area rockyman? Got a link?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

That was the 12z...the 18z just finished running...I don't have a link to a publicly available system yet...it should update on the FSU site soon

[Sabanic]

That last HWRF at 12z that takes it up to Mobile looks like shear or something sets in and rips it up...brings it down to a borderline Cat 1/TS approaching landfall. Thats a long way from the Cat 5 monster it showed yesterday

952 at LF. Not too weak.

[AL Chili Pepper]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 21.0 74.0 265./12.0
6 20.9 75.0 267./ 9.3
12 21.1 76.2 279./11.1
18 21.6 77.4 291./12.5
24 21.9 78.7 282./12.7
30 22.2 79.8 287./10.6
36 22.6 80.9 290./10.9
42 23.1 81.9 296./ 9.9
48 23.6 82.6 306./ 8.3
54 24.0 83.1 309./ 6.7
60 24.6 83.7 314./ 7.4
66 25.0 84.2 308./ 6.7
72 25.5 84.8 312./ 7.2
78 26.0 85.4 309./ 7.1
84 26.5 86.3 297./ 9.1
90 26.9 87.2 299./ 9.2
96 27.2 88.3 285./10.2
102 27.6 89.3 292./ 9.8
108 28.2 90.4 298./11.5
114 28.9 91.3 309./10.7
120 29.8 92.1 317./10.9
126 30.4 92.4 331./ 7.1


========================================
Here's the 12Z if you want to see any changes:

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 21.0 72.8 265./13.0
6 21.0 73.9 268./10.2
12 21.4 75.2 287./12.5
18 21.4 76.7 270./13.9
24 21.4 78.0 271./12.2
30 21.6 79.1 280./10.9
36 21.9 80.1 287./ 9.3
42 22.2 81.1 289./10.2
48 22.7 82.1 298./10.0
54 23.4 82.8 309./ 9.6
60 23.9 83.5 305./ 7.8
66 24.4 84.1 308./ 7.6
72 24.9 84.8 308./ 8.0
78 25.3 85.5 305./ 7.4
84 25.7 86.0 307./ 6.4
90 26.1 86.8 299./ 8.1
96 26.4 87.7 287./ 8.9
102 26.7 88.6 288./ 8.2
108 27.0 89.5 287./ 8.5
114 27.2 90.4 283./ 8.9
120 27.6 91.3 299./ 8.5
126 28.1 92.1 299./ 8.7

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL lands right where Gus did...To the city...

[rockyman]

the main difference is the heading of the storm at landfall (curving north instead of curving west)

[Pearl River]

Around Pecan Island

[TTheriot1975]

Can u give the links where you are getting this info...The FSU is not updated

[Ivanhater]

NOGAPS NO Mississppi area

GFS and HWRF, sw Louisiana..Nogaps/gfdl SE Louisiana area

Models are now starting to hook this off to the North and NE at the end of the runs..will be interesting to see the progression 7 days out...

[TideJoe]

18Z GFDL lands right where Gus did...To the city...

Well, the probability of that happening is extremely low. Two landfalls in the same place, just under 2 weeks apart. It could happen, but it's not likely IMO.

[Sabanic]

the main difference is the heading of the storm at landfall (curving north instead of curving west)

Yup a more northerly component earlier than the previous run. Guess we need to all be ready for the model flip-flop for a couple of days or so.

[Stormcenter]

That last HWRF at 12z that takes it up to Mobile looks like shear or something sets in and rips it up...brings it down to a borderline Cat 1/TS approaching landfall. Thats a long way from the Cat 5 monster it showed yesterday

That would be WONDERFUL NEWS if it's only a Cat.1!!!!!!!!!!!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

Can u give the links where you are getting this info...The FSU is not updated

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main. ... GFDL+Model

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL lands right where Gus did...To the city...

Well, the probability of that happening is extremely low. Two landfalls in the same place, just under 2 weeks apart. It could happen, but it's not likely IMO.

Check 2004, F and J...Both hit me within 2 weeks of each other..Stuart, FL

[rockyman]

GFDL landfall point:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... iwloc=addr

[Weatherfreak000]

Models seem to be agreeing on the trough...not a surprise..this is September...

[TideJoe]

18Z GFDL lands right where Gus did...To the city...

Well, the probability of that happening is extremely low. Two landfalls in the same place, just under 2 weeks apart. It could happen, but it's not likely IMO.

Check 2004, F and J...Both hit me within 2 weeks of each other..Stuart, FL

Didn't say it was impossible, just highly unlikely.

[HouTXmetro]

Models seem to be agreeing on the trough...not a surprise..this is September...

Remains to be seen. The EURO is still into South Texas/Mexico. I also recall when this Ike was in the Atlantic many of the models were showing recurve East of Florida. It's a wait and see situation. However, the latest runs do lend more consensus to a trough.

[hurrican19]