ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

18z HWRF loop track ends just off the Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Wasn't the HWRF the northern 'outlier' model earlier??

Sure was

[Sabanic]

18z HWRF loop track ends just off the Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Wasn't the HWRF the northern 'outlier' model earlier??

Yes it was. Seriously though as earlier stated we will not have a good read on exactly where Ike is going until mid-week or so.

[Air Force Met]

Edit: I see.

I don't need a blue icon by my name mean to see when its a trof pulling it north...or just a rounding of a progressing ridge. The thing that the GFDL and HWRF were bitting on in thier earlier runs towards the panhandle were because they saw the trof weakening the ridge. Now we are talking about a progressing ridge over Texas moving east and weakening...and the models are handling the solution differently...some are stronger and slower...some are weaker and faster.

As far as the EURO. Considering it was the first to pick up on the trend...I wouldn't bad mouth it too much. It was pointing to the western Gulf when the GFS was stuck off the east coast. That's what gave a lot of us fits in our forecasts. It might have some trouble with trofs...but it does a lot better with ridges than the GFS...and that is what we are dealing with here.

[Air Force Met]

18z HWRF loop track ends just off the Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Wasn't the HWRF the northern 'outlier' model earlier??

Yes. Its been a 300 NM shift to the left.

[Ivanhater]

Not because of the trof. Because they round the ridge. The trof is in 48-72 hrs. The end of the runs and the north turns are being shown because of rounding the ridge...not breaking thru the trof.

I have to disagree here, the GFS is clearly showing this getting picked up by a trough, notice it hooking NE shortly after landfall 7 days from now, the trough is evident on the 500mb as well

[Stormcenter]

Edit: I see.

I don't need a blue icon by my name mean to see when its a trof pulling it north...or just a rounding of a progressing ridge. The thing that the GFDL and HWRF were bitting on in thier earlier runs towards the panhandle were because they saw the trof weakening the ridge. Now we are talking about a progressing ridge over Texas moving east and weakening...and the models are handling the solution differently...some are stronger and slower...some are weaker and faster.

As far as the EURO. Considering it was the first to pick up on the trend...I wouldn't bad mouth it too much. It was pointing to the western Gulf when the GFS was stuck off the east coast. That's what gave a lot of us fits in our forecasts. It might have some trouble with trofs...but it does a lot better with ridges than the GFS...and that is what we are dealing with here.

So what is your "early" call AFM?

[Stormcenter]

Not because of the trof. Because they round the ridge. The trof is in 48-72 hrs. The end of the runs and the north turns are being shown because of rounding the ridge...not breaking thru the trof.

I have to disagree here, the GFS is clearly showing this getting picked up by a trough, notice it hooking NE shortly after landfall 7 days from now, the trough is evident on the 500mb as well

A lot can happen it 7 days.

[caneman]

Edit: I see.

I don't need a blue icon by my name mean to see when its a trof pulling it north...or just a rounding of a progressing ridge. The thing that the GFDL and HWRF were bitting on in thier earlier runs towards the panhandle were because they saw the trof weakening the ridge. Now we are talking about a progressing ridge over Texas moving east and weakening...and the models are handling the solution differently...some are stronger and slower...some are weaker and faster.

As far as the EURO. Considering it was the first to pick up on the trend...I wouldn't bad mouth it too much. It was pointing to the western Gulf when the GFS was stuck off the east coast. That's what gave a lot of us fits in our forecasts. It might have some trouble with trofs...but it does a lot better with ridges than the GFS...and that is what we are dealing with here.

A bit too early to say which model verfies don't you think? After all, that trend could be ended by this time tomorrow.

[deltadog03]

Hey AFM!! How are ya?? Well, I know they do round ridges like you said. I still think that trof, (the one around 120hrs) coming down might be the one to yank it north and NE and errode the ridge. I guess my point is we really don't know how strong that will get for another day or so since its still not really in our upper air network. I was trying to point something like this out earlier, but couldn't spit the words out right. One thing is this is going to be near the middle of september, trofs/fronts are more frequent now...( which u know) How many times have we seen a winter storm look good only to not be that good 3-4 days out...hehe

[Air Force Met]

I have to disagree here, the GFS is clearly showing this getting picked up by a trough, notice it hooking NE shortly after landfall 7 days from now, the trough is evident on the 500mb as well

Well...synoptically...there is usually a trof somewhere when you round a ridge. Right? That's the way it works. Like saying when I get about the clouds the sky will be blue. But if you go back...the ridge is not breaking down because of that trof. It just breaks down as Ike noses in. Look at 114 hrs. The trof is still west of the 4 corners and Ike is already nosing thru the weakness between the two ridges and moving NW...beginning the recurve...before the trof even influences the ridge. By 132 hrs the ridge is N-S...inducing a southerly steering flow...and the trof is still in the plains.

By landfall the trof has already passed it. The trof you see on your pic is Ike. Not related to the trof at all.

[Ivanhater]

A lot can happen it 7 days.

I know, which is what Ive been saying, a lot can happen with the break down of the ridge and trough progression a week out..being 7 days out models would slow or speed up the trough from 6 hours to 2 days...long week

[Ivanhater]

I have to disagree here, the GFS is clearly showing this getting picked up by a trough, notice it hooking NE shortly after landfall 7 days from now, the trough is evident on the 500mb as well

Well...synoptically...there is usually a trof somewhere when you round a ridge. Right? That's the way it works. Like saying when I get about the clouds the sky will be blue. But if you go back...the ridge is not breaking down because of that trof. It just breaks down as Ike noses in. Look at 114 hrs. The trof is still west of the 4 corners and Ike is already nosing thru the weakness between the two ridges and moving NW...beginning the recurve...before the trof even influences the ridge. By 132 hrs the ridge is N-S...inducing a southerly steering flow...and the trof is still in the plains.

By landfall the trof has already passed it. The trof you see on your pic is Ike. Not related to the trof at all.

I see your point, but being a week out, and recently(probably not a huge deal right now), but most of the models starting to change the angle of approach to a more north motion, models will be flip flopping as they try to pin the progression of a trough that is a week out? Should it move faster or slower, deeper or flatter, and hwo fast Ike is moving in the Gulf..lots to play out a week from now as you say the models will flip flop

[Storm Contractor]

18Z GFDL lands right where Gus did...To the city...

Well, the probability of that happening is extremely low. Two landfalls in the same place, just under 2 weeks apart. It could happen, but it's not likely IMO.

Frances & Jeanne 2004

[perk]

18z HWRF loop track ends just off the Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Wasn't the HWRF the northern 'outlier' model earlier??

YES.

[TideJoe]

I have to disagree here, the GFS is clearly showing this getting picked up by a trough, notice it hooking NE shortly after landfall 7 days from now, the trough is evident on the 500mb as well

Well...synoptically...there is usually a trof somewhere when you round a ridge. Right? That's the way it works. Like saying when I get about the clouds the sky will be blue. But if you go back...the ridge is not breaking down because of that trof. It just breaks down as Ike noses in. Look at 114 hrs. The trof is still west of the 4 corners and Ike is already nosing thru the weakness between the two ridges and moving NW...beginning the recurve...before the trof even influences the ridge. By 132 hrs the ridge is N-S...inducing a southerly steering flow...and the trof is still in the plains.

By landfall the trof has already passed it. The trof you see on your pic is Ike. Not related to the trof at all.

I see your point, but being a week out, and recently(probably not a huge deal right now), but most of the models starting to change the angle of approach to a more north motion, models will be flip flopping as they try to pin the progression of a trough that is a week out? Should it move faster or slower, deeper or flatter, and hwo fast Ike is moving in the Gulf..lots to play out a week from now as you say the models will flip flop

You're right..... the models had Gus heading toward northern Texas a one point.

[terrapintransit]

[SouthFLTropics]

18Z GFDL lands right where Gus did...To the city...

Well, the probability of that happening is extremely low. Two landfalls in the same place, just under 2 weeks apart. It could happen, but it's not likely IMO.

Frances & Jeanne 2004

I'll vouch for that! I was here at ground zero for both of those. Three weeks apart to the exact hour almost. And the exact same point of landfall. What a fun stretch of time that was!

SFT

[caneman]

Don't be surpries to see the models shift East at the 00z or 06z timeframes they have for the last couple of days and I bit just as some are biting on the west trend. I'm not biting on the flip flopping until we're near 3 days.

[smw1981]

Another thing to consider and reason to not get worked up is land interaction. Neither Gustav or Hannah recovered after their trek over land. Safe bet and odds would be against this becoming a major again. IMHO. Not a professional just a long time observer.

I'm not saying that Ike is going to do this, but Gustav (and Georges) strengthened back up to a high Cat 2 after interacting with Cuba, and Fredrick up to a Cat 3, so it definitely can happen....

Again, not saying that Ike will restrengthen, but just that everyone along the Gulf Coast should still pay attention, since high Cat 2s and Cat 3s do lots of damage!

[Air Force Met]

Hey AFM!! How are ya?? Well, I know they do round ridges like you said. I still think that trof, (the one around 120hrs) coming down might be the one to yank it north and NE and errode the ridge. I guess my point is we really don't know how strong that will get for another day or so since its still not really in our upper air network. I was trying to point something like this out earlier, but couldn't spit the words out right. One thing is this is going to be near the middle of september, trofs/fronts are more frequent now...( which u know) How many times have we seen a winter storm look good only to not be that good 3-4 days out...hehe

I think it will be too slow and too far north. If its any stronger...It should hook up more with the upper low over SCAL and deepen the cut off.

On the long range call today at 11 CDT...they seemed pretty certain the ridge was going to hold (the HPC). Out office...and out 262 years of experience poured over data all weekend and came up with...miss the first trof (did that yesterday...now thats pretty certain) and ridge holds....but timing of final collapse? Yeah. We still don't know. We are on either side of the HPC longrange forecast (which took it over GLS on day 7). We bounced b/w Port Aransas/Pt Lavaca and W LA. HPC was in the middle of that.