ATL: IKE Discussion

[CrazyC83]

UZNT13 KNHC 072339
XXAA 57238 99212 70751 08015 99953 24400 06120 00928 ///// /////
92259 23004 07138 85997 21001 08613 88999 77999
31313 09608 82323
51515 10190 70665
61616 NOAA2 WXWXA IKE OB 10
62626 SPL 2123N07516W 2326 MBL WND 07131 AEV 20704 =
XXBB 57238 99212 70751 08015 00953 24400 11850 21001 22750 16402
33722 14400
21212 00953 06120 11948 06624 22941 06637 33929 07140 44899 07618
55881 08630 66864 08617 77850 08613 88722 10611
31313 09608 82323
51515 10190 70665
61616 NOAA2 WXWXA IKE OB 10
62626 SPL 2123N07516W 2326 MBL WND 07131 AEV 20704 =

120kt surface winds from dropsonde

Why did the nhc hold it at 105 knots???

Not sure, maybe they didn't get it in time? Disregarding it?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks a bit ragged for a dropsonde of 120 kts doesn't he?

[Texashawk]

Looks a bit ragged for a dropsonde of 120 kts doesn't he?

True - but even at 135 MPH Ike really hasn't 'looked the part' all that much. Odd, but I guess that's why you fly the missions...

[shah8]

If Ike really does go along the length of Cuba...how much do you want to bet that there will be people who claims that the US can manipulate hurricanes to their purposes? It certainly does twinge *my* sense of paranoia and nothing bad's happening to me and I know something of how hard it would be to influence a hurricane.

[Stormcenter]

We worries me is that fact that Ike will have a LOT of time, a LOT of high SSTs and not a lot of shear ahead of him after crossing Cuba. So even if Ike weakens considerably over the next 48 hours or so, there's still a LOT of potential for him ahead.

Potential won't buy you a soft drink.

[MBryant]

"If Ike really does go along the length of Cuba...how much do you want to bet that there will be people who claims that the US can manipulate hurricanes to their purposes? It certainly does twinge *my* sense of paranoia and nothing bad's happening to me and I know something of how hard it would be to influence a hurricane."

~I just hope they'll be mad at Russia for not protecting them using their Tesla inspired SCALAR weather control machines.~

[fasterdisaster]

He'll probably still be offshore at the next advisory or just barely onshore so they might upgrade him then.

[MBryant]

BTW, I filled up my fuel tanks ... just in case.

[Jagno]

BTW, I filled up my fuel tanks ... just in case.

We already had 5-6 deep lines of cars waiting to fill up at Wal Mart this afternoon. At least if they are putting gas then hopefully that means that they will leave when an evacuation is called for. It took me forever today to find a hotel room that was a suite and accepted animals.

[Texashawk]

Wow.. my wife and I just went to the store for some weekly shopping and Kroger's already hauled out all the water they've got!! And people are buying... I'm glad to see people generally taking this seriously (again) after Gustav never did anything...

...That, or maybe everybody's really thirsty.

[expat2carib]

"If Ike really does go along the length of Cuba...how much do you want to bet that there will be people who claims that the US can manipulate hurricanes to their purposes? It certainly does twinge *my* sense of paranoia and nothing bad's happening to me and I know something of how hard it would be to influence a hurricane."

~I just hope they'll be mad at Russia for not protecting them using their Tesla inspired SCALAR weather control machines.~

You probably mean the advanced SCALATAR with anti wobble protection.

[Texashawk]

Seems to be moving just south of west again.

[Harry Cane]

Wao!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Seems to be moving just south of west again.

The more south and west it can go the better chance it has to make it into the Caribbean. I truely believe it follows the nhc's track, that is will be around 45 knots when it comes back into the gulf.

Of course the ridge could weaken in this could ride the spin of Cuba into the gulf.

[cpdaman]

well will find out shortly wether ike knows how to "dance"

hopefully all those in cuba have taken shelter

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wao!

The outtereye is covering a much much larger area then the inner eye would of covered, so a much larger area is getting slamed. But on the other hand this storm is going to make landfall with its shield down more or less. This storm could of not choosen a worst time to go through a EWRC. This thing will weaken very fast over land now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My forecast for strength

Now 110 knots based on recon
6 hours 95 knots over land
12 hours 80 knots over land
24 hours 65 knots over land
36 hours 45 knots over land
48 hour 35 knots moving into the gulf
60 hours 50 knots over gulf
72 hours 65 knots over Gulf
96 hours 75 knots over Gulf
120 hours 50 knots over land centeral LA.

[CowboyFan]

Now is the time to have a good hurricane plan in place all along the gulf coast. Models will continue to trend east and west until this gets into the gulf. So prepare for the worst and hope for the best

[CourierPR]

Seems to be moving just south of west again.

Looks to be heading west or just north of due west.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't know, if this makes it into the Carib, I think it has Mexico written all over it.... I don't really see anything that's going to pull it North if it makes it that far south.