ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jeff]

I am not sure why pros keep coming on here...first the post are sent to the back pages to be replaced with Yep it is W or no it is WSW or I like it is WNW. People take your pills...Ike is going to make landfall along the US Gulf coast this weekend likely. Most likely impact area appears W of the MS River with the highest in the area from about Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...I would go further SW and less east...but I am reminded that Gulf storms tend to track right of both guidance and the NHC...not by 100's or miles...but some.

We shall practice mass evacuations in SE TX this week...may the lessons of Rita have been learned.

[perk]

Models seem to be agreeing on the trough...not a surprise..this is September...

Models are doing no such thing. A couple of models see that...and the NHC and HPC say that ain't so. One of those models is Nogaps...the NO stands for NO. The GFDL is flip flopping and the HWRF is now trending west.

So how do you say the models are agreeing on the trof?

AFM thanks for clearing that up.

[TideJoe]

Another thing to consider and reason to not get worked up is land interaction. Neither Gustav or Hannah recovered after their trek over land. Safe bet and odds would be against this becoming a major again. IMHO. Not a professional just a long time observer.

I'm not saying that Ike is going to do this, but Gustav (and Georges) strengthened back up to a high Cat 2 after interacting with Cuba, and Fredrick up to a Cat 3, so it definitely can happen....

Again, not saying that Ike will restrengthen, but just that everyone along the Gulf Coast should still pay attention, since high Cat 2s and Cat 3s do lots of damage!

Actually, Frederick made it to Cat 4 but weakened to a high end 3 just before landfall.

[deltadog03]

Good point my friend. I guess Time will tell....Still holding on to that right hand hook just in case....

[jeff]

Hey AFM!! How are ya?? Well, I know they do round ridges like you said. I still think that trof, (the one around 120hrs) coming down might be the one to yank it north and NE and errode the ridge. I guess my point is we really don't know how strong that will get for another day or so since its still not really in our upper air network. I was trying to point something like this out earlier, but couldn't spit the words out right. One thing is this is going to be near the middle of september, trofs/fronts are more frequent now...( which u know) How many times have we seen a winter storm look good only to not be that good 3-4 days out...hehe

I think it will be too slow and too far north. If its any stronger...It should hook up more with the upper low over SCAL and deepen the cut off.

On the long range call today at 11 CDT...they seemed pretty certain the ridge was going to hold (the HPC). Out office...and out 262 years of experience poured over data all weekend and came up with...miss the first trof (did that yesterday...now thats pretty certain) and ridge holds....but timing of final collapse? Yeah. We still don't know. We are on either side of the HPC longrange forecast (which took it over GLS on day 7). We bounced b/w Port Aransas/Pt Lavaca and W LA. HPC was in the middle of that.

Were you on the 400pm State call?

[jeff]

Hey AFM!! How are ya?? Well, I know they do round ridges like you said. I still think that trof, (the one around 120hrs) coming down might be the one to yank it north and NE and errode the ridge. I guess my point is we really don't know how strong that will get for another day or so since its still not really in our upper air network. I was trying to point something like this out earlier, but couldn't spit the words out right. One thing is this is going to be near the middle of september, trofs/fronts are more frequent now...( which u know) How many times have we seen a winter storm look good only to not be that good 3-4 days out...hehe

I think it will be too slow and too far north. If its any stronger...It should hook up more with the upper low over SCAL and deepen the cut off.

On the long range call today at 11 CDT...they seemed pretty certain the ridge was going to hold (the HPC). Out office...and out 262 years of experience poured over data all weekend and came up with...miss the first trof (did that yesterday...now thats pretty certain) and ridge holds....but timing of final collapse? Yeah. We still don't know. We are on either side of the HPC longrange forecast (which took it over GLS on day 7). We bounced b/w Port Aransas/Pt Lavaca and W LA. HPC was in the middle of that.

[Air Force Met]

I see your point, but being a week out, and recently(probably not a huge deal right now), but most of the models starting to change the angle of approach to a more north motion, models will be flip flopping as they try to pin the progression of a trough that is a week out? Should it move faster or slower, deeper or flatter, and hwo fast Ike is moving in the Gulf..lots to play out a week from now as you say the models will flip flop

I'm looking at about 20 models (GFS ensembles not included)...and no more models have a greated angle of approach to the north than there were this morning. The HWRF and GFDL? Yes...but one is much further west. The rest are still wiggling along on a WNW heading. Some have a litte more NW at the end...but some don't. Over the last day...the number is about the same. Not much change.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me a rounding of the ridge and then a pick up by a trough.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

The timing of this could definitely change.

[smw1981]

Another thing to consider and reason to not get worked up is land interaction. Neither Gustav or Hannah recovered after their trek over land. Safe bet and odds would be against this becoming a major again. IMHO. Not a professional just a long time observer.

I'm not saying that Ike is going to do this, but Gustav (and Georges) strengthened back up to a high Cat 2 after interacting with Cuba, and Fredrick up to a Cat 3, so it definitely can happen....

Again, not saying that Ike will restrengthen, but just that everyone along the Gulf Coast should still pay attention, since high Cat 2s and Cat 3s do lots of damage!

Actually, Frederick made it to Cat 4 but weakened to a high end 3 just before landfall.

Haha..thanks..sorry for the mistake! My point was, they definitely can (and do sometimes) revamp, so everyone needs to keep an eye on Ike!

[Agua]

Don't be surpries to see the models shift East at the 00z or 06z timeframes they have for the last couple of days and I bit just as some are biting on the west trend. I'm not biting on the flip flopping until we're near 3 days.

Like I said earlier in here, somewhere, give it about three runs after it exits Cuba, wherever, and whenever that is. By then, the models will more likely to have a decent idea where the thing is headed in the 2-3 day period.

[Air Force Met]

Were you on the 400pm State call?

No....missed it. Was on another call.

Check PM

[Sabanic]

I am not sure why pros keep coming on here...first the post are sent to the back pages to be replaced with Yep it is W or no it is WSW or I like it is WNW. People take your pills...Ike is going to make landfall along the US Gulf coast this weekend likely. Most likely impact area appears W of the MS River with the highest in the area from about Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...I would go further SW and less east...but I am reminded that Gulf storms tend to track right of both guidance and the NHC...not by 100's or miles...but some.

We shall practice mass evacuations in SE TX this week...may the lessons of Rita have been learned.

Not that I know near as much as you, but I still believe that we have too much time before we can say with certain confidence where Ike will make landfall. Your thoughts seem very reasonable based on the models, but they change, and I am willing to bet they will not remain as they are for the entire week.

[Bailey1777]

People do you realize all the technology and experience at AFM'S disposal. Get real and listen to him.

[TideJoe]

People do you realize all the technology and experience at AFM'S disposal. Get real and listen to him.

It don't think anyone is questioning his intelligence or experience, however things do change without warning when dealing with the tropics. There were plenty of models and mets calling a north Texas landfall for Gustav several days out and he landfalled several hundred miles east of there. My point is that things can change. Everyone in the GOM should keep a close eye on it and maybe the pros will have it nailed down by Tuesday-Wednesday.

[jwayne]

Nice job running off AFM and Jeff L. Some of you people are unbelievable!!! How about just asking them questions instead of debating/antagonizing them?

[TampaFl]

8:00pm position:

[Wx_Warrior]

Making exact landfall predictions this far out aren't very smart either (unless they come true). If they don't, we will remind you.

[Bailey1777]

Yes things can change but he gives you the best look at the future that you can get and lets face it alot of us want to hear educated guesses from pros.

[Dean4Storms]

Ike is going to be a Fl. panhandle issue if this trend continues.

What trend? The HWRFs which is trending west...and is now 300NM west from the 12z run?

Or the Euro...which was also WAY west?

Based on the EURO, HWRF and UKMET...I could just as easily say this will be a Mexico issue if this trend continues.

Please people...a little sanity. These models will flip and flop.

Um from what I see it was AFM asking the questions and doing the antagonizing first here, let us at least be honest. He could have handled this better but I'm sure he is tired and not looking forward to the hours ahead.

Besides every Pro Met from the NHC to TV has stated that everyone along the Gulf coast should monitor this storm.

Our Pro Mets from here in Mobile and I'm sure they have a lot of technology at their disposal as well.......


THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN THE ADVERTISED SOLUTIONS THE
FARTHER IKE GETS INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AS IKE APPROACHES.

[Bailey1777]

This is my last reply on this. Of course the whole Gulf coast should watch this, he would be the first to say that, my point is he is a pro with technology and experience at his disposal that we the general public do not have access to. So when he forecast I would listen to it over all the amatuer stuff you get fed on here.