ATL: IKE Discussion

[Rod Hagen]

How densely populated is that stretch of country NW of Banes? If it cruises along the coast line there it must surely be doing some terrible stuff to the poor people living there.

Edit - Mmm - http://www.stockmapagency.com/Populatio ... 07-Pop.php provides some details. Definitely not a "wilderness area" I'm afraid.

Rod

[6SpeedTA95]

Definately some dry air intrusion happening right now on the southern side of the storm. That cool mountain air will probably start bringing the insensity down. This storm still looks to be in relatively good shape given the mountains to its south but I'd expect a weak cat 1 or TS by noon tomorrow if it continues west.

[stormspotter]

Here is the key....like all of you dont already know this... Any and I mean any deviation on forward motion, direction, and strength will determine weather a weakness in the ridge allows him an escape along the SE LA., MS., AL., or NW Fl. Panhandle, or a forced escape from Central to SW La. and or Upper Texas Coast, because of a strong ridge across the eastern gulf and a retreating ridge over Texas. Thats my $2, Can anyone make change?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banes,_Cuba

Banes has 81,000 people. So a borderline cat3-4 just hit a large town more or less.

[cycloneye]

I think if Ike remains 36 hours over land it will likely be a TS or TD when it enter the GOM.

If it takes the forecast track from the NHC I just can't see it remaining a hurricane.

However,NHC insists it will remain a hurricane thru the track over Cuba.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW

[Sean in New Orleans]

Houston, we have a problem !

Maybe...that's a five day NHC forecast. We all have lots of watching to do this week. I can report that Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana officially declared a State of Emergency this afternoon around 4:00 due to Ike.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In 2004, the province of Holguin had a population of 1,029,083.[1] With a total area of 9,292.83 km² (3,588 sq mi),[3] the province had a population density of 110.7/km² (286.7/sq mi).
Wikipedia

Also noted I seen this has the second largest population for the area that will be getting the southern eyewall in the next few hours.

[Sabanic]

Houston, we have a problem !

Maybe...that's a five day NHC forecast. We all have lots of watching to do this week. I can report that Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana officially declared a State of Emergency this afternoon around 4:00 due to Ike.

Exactly what I have been trying to say sean.

[setxweathergal]

Our local met, whom I have really come to trust is still saying it should be east of Tx. I agree that there isn't much further east to go to get it focused on Louisiana...so, I'm leaning that way. It's just so easy to read into the models being fairly agreeable towards our area.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Will another LSU football game be postponed? Sheesh. I know Baton Rouge isn't nextdoor to Galveston but if the storm is big and makes landfall Saturday afternoon or evening then Baton Rouge could certainly have sloppy weather. We had a ton of rain with Rita and had gusts of around 40 mph. That is enough to cancel a game. My parents were supposed to come in for it.

One thing worrying me is that I think if the track shifts at all, it will probably shift East because of the trough. This is going to be another very long week.

I was thinking the same thing. I am never going to see LSU play. Also agree on on any shifts in the latter period will probably be a little further east. Seems we are in the middle of the cone again and it has not been a good place to be lately.

[Rod Hagen]

Seems to be a major sugar growing area, too -



Rod

[clfenwi]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banes,_Cuba

Banes has 81,000 people. So a borderline cat3-4 just hit a large town more or less.

And going up the coast there's Gibara, Puerto Padre, and Nuevitas, cities of 72,810, 93,705, and 44,832, respectively.

[Sabanic]

This says it all . . .

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008



LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

[cycloneye]

Sandy,here is why NHC mantains it as a hurricane while inside Cuba.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED.

[jaxfladude]

Sandy,here is why NHC mantains it as a hurricane while inside Cuba.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED.

I Don't Like (Hurricane)Ike of '08

Prayers up to all impacted/to be impacted by Ike...

[clfenwi]

I think if Ike remains 36 hours over land it will likely be a TS or TD when it enter the GOM.

If it takes the forecast track from the NHC I just can't see it remaining a hurricane.

However,NHC insists it will remain a hurricane thru the track over Cuba.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW

The thing with the intensity forecast is that the NHC has no choice but to hedge. They can not assume 100% accuracy in their track forecast, they must account for the possibility Ike running the northern coast or drifting into the Caribbean (note that both possibilities fall inside of the cone).

If they could guarantee their track forecast, they probably would take it down to tropical storm strength, (which is what SHIPS, using the NHC track as its guidance suggests).

[canetracker]

My radar looks completely different from the one Hurrakan posted last page. Perhaps its at a different angle?

[MetSul Weather Center]

Storm surge in Barbacoa, Cuba.



More pictures at http://www.metsul.com/blog

[fasterdisaster]

Definately some dry air intrusion happening right now on the southern side of the storm. That cool mountain air will probably start bringing the insensity down. This storm still looks to be in relatively good shape given the mountains to its south but I'd expect a weak cat 1 or TS by noon tomorrow if it continues west.

There is no dry air intrusion, it is an ERC.

[terrapintransit]

My radar looks completely different from the one Hurrakan posted last page. Perhaps its at a different angle?

Looks like IKE is riding the coast on that one.