ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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PTPatrick
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2621 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:38 pm

PS....I just CANT see this thing sitting for that long. I cant not wait another week on Ikey to landfall...Gee Whiz.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2622 Postby MGC » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:39 pm

To the left...to the right....We'll know much better when Ike moves off Cuba. I'm hedging on a central La landfall, close to where Gustav landed.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC and not a official forecast.
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#2623 Postby TTheriot1975 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:39 pm

Talk about a jump in models...wow!!
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2624 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:40 pm

Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Image
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#2625 Postby TTheriot1975 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:41 pm

So instead of a Sat landfall..its going to be an extra couple days more?
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Re:

#2626 Postby Bolebuns » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:42 pm

TTheriot1975 wrote:Talk about a jump in models...wow!!


which ones?
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#2627 Postby TTheriot1975 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:43 pm

Sorry...just one...from SWLA at 18z to Pensacola Fl at 00Z...and now not until next Mon
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#2628 Postby TTheriot1975 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:44 pm

The GFS
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2629 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:44 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Hopefully this situation would pan out for a sheared lopsided NE moving system.



This is what it is looking like per this model run. IMO
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2630 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Image


A week from now!

:wall:
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2631 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:44 pm

[quote="cycloneye"]Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Best place to be a week out Luis :cheesy:
Last edited by Ivanhater on Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2632 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:45 pm

FYI: Not the same Rita type setup.

This is very very tricky guys, yall know that....If the trough picks up Ike, when does it do it and then where does he take him.

Do some of you really think that every model is going to point in the same direction this far out? :lol:
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Re:

#2633 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:45 pm

TTheriot1975 wrote:Sorry...just one...from SWLA at 18z to Pensacola Fl at 00Z...and now not until next Mon



The timing thing as I just posted in this thread is what bothers me about this run.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2634 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:47 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Best place be a week out Luis :cheesy:


Sure is.But anyway my friend,you have to watch very closely how the upper pattern will shape up in the next few days to see if in reality you will be visited by Ike or not.
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#2635 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:48 pm

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

If not mistaken that is IVAN's synoptic set up....Look familiar?

Well, we all know what happened next...It moved north basically....Tonights 00z gfs is nearly identical to the same pattern...

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/5817 ... 013qj0.gif
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#2636 Postby TTheriot1975 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:48 pm

Now I could be wrong..but didnt Gustav speed up to try to make it around the High? It went faster..not slower...it was booking it at like 15-17 mph..making landfall about almost a day early. Why would this storm be any different? Does the high stay in place over too much of the gulf?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2637 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:48 pm

Yes, a week out but Ike will be in the gulf very very soon. 'Hater...We've been in the cone for days now! That's just one GFS model. You should know better than that. If that cone comes your way, then you got problems. Until then, you are good to go.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2638 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Best place be a week out Luis :cheesy:


Sure is.But anyway my friend,you have to watch very closely how the upper pattern will shape up in the next few days to see if in reality you will be visited by Ike or not.


Of course, busy week at s2k im sure
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Re:

#2639 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:57 pm

deltadog03 wrote:http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=namer&le=500&va=hght&in=20&pl=cf&yy=2004&mm=09&dd=15&hh=00&overlay=no&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

If not mistaken that is IVAN's synoptic set up....Look familiar?

Well, we all know what happened next...It moved north basically....Tonights 00z gfs is nearly identical to the same pattern...

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/5817 ... 013qj0.gif

Quite different.

Ivan's trough was deep and amplified, and its weakness was in the right position to steer it where it went.

Ike's situation is different. Ike's trough separates into two parts, one which cuts off in my area and then one which ejects out to the east. The trough that ejects out is not that amplified and very progressive (despite the amplitude of Ivan's trough, the progressiveness of it still didn't have enough strength to completely recurve it into Canada, so its remnants curved back). Furthermore, the weakness is short-lived and there are higher heights just to the west of Ike once the weakness closes off to steer it back west.

The 0Z GFS IMO is bunk.
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Jason_B

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2640 Postby Jason_B » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:57 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Yes, a week out but Ike will be in the gulf very very soon. 'Hater...We've been in the cone for days now! That's just one GFS model. You should know better than that. If that cone comes your way, then you got problems. Until then, you are good to go.
Agree. Strong consensus has been and still is Texas.
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