ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2641 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:01 am

Bunk?? I see a trend of a stronger trof that knocks the ridge down quicker...Sounds like a trend from earlier today....

TTheriot1975 · #2642 Postby **TTheriot1975** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:05 am

Is there some other trough that could possibly be stronger than that one coming after it?

#2643 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:06 am

deltadog03 wrote:Bunk?? I see a trend of a stronger trof that knocks the ridge down quicker...Sounds like a trend from earlier today....

Lol..what is so bunk about it..sure it may not happen, but each run of the GFS has been showing the trough progression faster and deeper, allowing the ridge to break down faster..this IS mid-september..not sure what is so "bunk" about it..

superfly · #2644 Postby **superfly** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:06 am

Jason_B wrote:Agree. Strong consensus has been and still is Texas.

Only reliable model still showing Texas as of right now is the EURO, although it has been the best model this season. GFDL and HRWF are both showing LA hits while GFS shows FL hit.

hicksta · #2645 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:08 am

LA does not need another hit. We still have national guard roaming around lsu

TTheriot1975 · #2646 Postby **TTheriot1975** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:10 am

When is GFDL and HWRF going to run?

Wx_Warrior · #2647 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:15 am

If i'm not mistaken, should be in about 15-20 mins (12:30 CDT).

Believe me, the good people of s2k will post the end results. Some will say bunk others say oh yeah! :wink:

#2648 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:26 am

00z HWRF shifting from SW louisiana to SE louisiana stalling out like the GFS

#2649 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:29 am

HWRF shift east to New Orleans moving due north

GoneBabyGone · #2650 Postby **GoneBabyGone** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:30 am

How reliable has HWRF been this season? Hopefully not very?

x-y-no · #2651 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:36 am

GoneBabyGone wrote:How reliable has HWRF been this season? Hopefully not very?

Well, a few days ago HWRF had Ike making landfall directly over Miami as a Cat 5.

#2652 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:37 am

Ivanhater wrote:HWRF shift east to New Orleans moving due north

If I'm reading correctly that is 5 days out. I have a hard seeing that pan out especially the intensity.

GoneBabyGone · #2653 Postby **GoneBabyGone** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:37 am

Well if I recall, most models had it doing something similar.

How did HWRF do with Gustav?

Wx_Warrior · #2654 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:37 am

So did every other model....

HWRF is supposed to replace GFDL next year. They all have missed the boat in some sort of fashion. Wait for a trend. If each model begins showing that area on multiple runs then it's latched on to something.

#2655 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:38 am

x-y-no wrote:
GoneBabyGone wrote:How reliable has HWRF been this season? Hopefully not very?

Well, a few days ago HWRF had Ike making landfall directly over Miami as a Cat 5.

No comment necessary.

#2656 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:39 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:So did every other model....

HWRF is supposed to replace GFDL next year. They all have missed the boat in some sort of fashion. Wait for a trend. If each model begins showing that area on multiple runs then it's latched on to something.

That's the problem no model has yet to do that....it's back and forth and so on.

#2657 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:41 am

00z Canadian shifts east to New Orleans moving NE

hicksta · #2658 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:41 am

great

GoneBabyGone · #2659 Postby **GoneBabyGone** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:42 am

fantastic.

#2660 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 12:43 am

Ivanhater wrote:00z Canadian shifts east to New Orleans

The trend eastward begins (again). Unfortunately tomorrow (today)may be a different story. I believe
once Ike is in the GOM is when we all will have a decent idea where he is going.

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