#14 Postby RattleMan » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:30 am
WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING //
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080351Z SEP 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.1N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.9N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 26.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 125.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 080351Z SEP 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 080400)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN
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