ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[TampaFl]

5:00am position:

[TampaFl]

With this steering flow aloft, IMHO Ike looks like he will continue on a westerly course. I know this will change over time.

[KWT]

Models have shifted east again, but we should remember with Gustav they were back and forth so many times!

[caneman]

Well, I posted this yesterday and got ripped for it but check out the 5:00 disco. And I keep seeing other mentioned another model has verified more, that simply isn't correct. Again, check the 5:00 disco. NHC once again say the GFDL has been the best performing model thus far. I wouldn't bite on the the 00z run or the 06z runs just yet though, they've trended East 2 days in a row only to flop back. If I see the same thing with the 12z or 18z then I think points East can become more concerned. Still plenty of time for the GFDL to be wrong. I still prefer the blend of them and the most reliable model to the left with landfall somewhere in between.

[KWT]

Yeah the GFDL has been quite impressive this season but as noted by the NHC its only GFS based models that have gone east of the NHC forecast and so until other modelks show as sharp turn then they not going to back that solution.

[caneman]

Yeah the GFDL has been quite impressive this season but as noted by the NHC its only GFS based models that have gone east of the NHC forecast and so until other modelks show as sharp turn then they not going to back that solution.

In the short run, GFDL has verified. Not having seen the new Euro run but did read it has shifted considerably North(could someone post that run?) It does lend credence to the GFDL idea.

[ROCK]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[dwg71]

gfs through 72 hours looks the same as last run.

[ROCK]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0900.shtml


not sure why the the track was not adjusted givin you have 3 highly reliable models shifting east....I am guessing the EURO is still locked on to TX. ..now if that were to shift east the NHC wold have no choice......JMO

Next EURO little after 12...

[ROCK]

gfs through 72 hours looks the same as last run.

probably wont change all that much givin its the 06z.....

[dwg71]

if this gfs is also east of track, you will see a bend east at 10am cst. nhc does it very slowly, so they are not confused with euro...

[Nimbus]

Have to wait and see where Ike comes off Cuba and how strong he is at that time. There is still some moist inflow from off the north coast of Cuba at the moment but that may not last unless Ike recenters NW.

[ROCK]

if this gfs is also east of track, you will see a bend east at 10am cst. nhc does it very slowly, so they are not confused with euro...

you picked up on that quick jab at 5am? you are more worthy an opponent than I thought....

[KWT]

The thing I notice is the GFS has this being very close to the Caribbean for a while as it tracks across the coast of Cuba, indeed it breifly does get into the water just:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012m.gif

In the longer term very similar to the 0z run, moves quite steadily WNW then NW through to 84hrs.

[caneman]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090800!!!step/

Thanks.

[dwg71]

96 hours dues south of NOLA, high pressure pushing off to the east. looks very similar to last run

[KWT]

The thing is Ike races through the higher heat content region and then seems to slow right down as it moves towards the shelf waters, mind you that heat content was still warm enough for Frederic....

[ROCK]

that was an interesting jump west at 114hr...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[superfly]

6Z GFS: Ike not picked up by the trough, moving west towards Texas

[Ed Mahmoud]

The trend has begun, and the trend is Texas friend. I suspect the 12Z models will continue, and my prediction I backed away from, Lake Charles to Tampa, centered on Mobile, would have been a good one if I hadn't gotten nervous.

Very unofficial, Lake Charles to Panama City Beach, centered between Morgan City and Mobile. Very unofficial and quite amateur,


Edit to correct for clicking wrong model and spare myself shame and humiliation.