ATL JOSEPHINE: Models Discussion

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 07, 2008 8:00 am

They are running again for Josephine,although not a TD or storm yet.I notice that they are trending more west.

WHXX01 KWBC 071255
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC SUN SEP 7 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE JOSEPHINE (AL102008) 20080907 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080907 1200 080908 0000 080908 1200 080909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 40.9W 18.0N 43.0W 19.1N 45.3W 20.0N 47.5W
BAMD 17.1N 40.9W 18.3N 43.0W 19.4N 45.0W 20.2N 46.8W
BAMM 17.1N 40.9W 18.2N 43.0W 19.1N 45.0W 19.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.1N 40.9W 17.9N 42.7W 18.7N 44.9W 19.4N 47.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080909 1200 080910 1200 080911 1200 080912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 49.5W 21.5N 53.5W 22.3N 57.4W 22.9N 61.1W
BAMD 20.6N 48.5W 20.9N 51.6W 21.0N 54.3W 20.8N 56.8W
BAMM 20.2N 48.7W 20.5N 52.2W 20.7N 55.5W 20.5N 58.6W
LBAR 20.0N 49.2W 20.9N 53.2W 21.7N 56.9W 21.8N 59.3W
SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 57KTS 59KTS
DSHP 41KTS 51KTS 57KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 40.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 39.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 37.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#22 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:18 am

Keep an eye on remnant josephine..many of the global models canadian and nogaps have this near puerto rico in 4 days and in the bahamas heading west in 6.

SouthFLTropics · #23 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:24 am

Vortex wrote:Keep an eye on remnant josephine..many of the global models canadian and nogaps have this near puerto rico in 4 days and in the bahamas heading west in 6.

Agreed Vortex...And with that big ridge of high pressure in place over top of us there will be only one way she should be able to go...West. I would think that something would come along to erode the ridge and allow her to curve North by then but you never know.

SFT

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:58 am

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE JOSEPHINE (AL102008) 20080908 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080908 1200 080909 0000 080909 1200 080910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 44.0W 19.1N 46.0W 19.7N 47.9W 20.4N 49.9W
BAMD 18.1N 44.0W 18.6N 45.9W 18.9N 47.9W 18.9N 49.8W
BAMM 18.1N 44.0W 18.8N 45.8W 19.2N 47.5W 19.5N 49.3W
LBAR 18.1N 44.0W 18.8N 45.8W 19.4N 48.0W 19.8N 50.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080910 1200 080911 1200 080912 1200 080913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 51.9W 22.4N 55.8W 23.7N 59.3W 25.0N 62.0W
BAMD 19.0N 51.8W 19.5N 55.2W 20.4N 57.8W 21.4N 59.7W
BAMM 19.7N 51.1W 20.7N 54.4W 21.7N 57.2W 22.6N 59.3W
LBAR 20.4N 52.4W 21.5N 57.0W 22.4N 61.0W 23.6N 63.1W
SHIP 48KTS 62KTS 69KTS 70KTS
DSHP 48KTS 62KTS 69KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 44.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.3N LONM12 = 42.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 40.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Frank2 · #25 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 8:25 am

Still, the seasons are already changing - frost warnings for the western half of SD this morning, so, the fronts are on the move which will help to keep eroding the ridge...

#26 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 7:11 am

I wonder when/if new model runs will resume on this area.....looks like it may be trying to regenerate

jinftl · #27 Postby **jinftl** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 7:43 am

That could work against us if the remnants develop and are in an area where ike was in relation to fl over the weekend...if this is relatively close (say west of 70W), i would a trough then would induce a nw turn like we feared from ike.

Frank2 wrote:Still, the seasons are already changing - frost warnings for the western half of SD this morning, so, the fronts are on the move which will help to keep eroding the ridge...

#28 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:19 am

06Z GFS shows a Vorticity in the region starting in 6 hours and moves it off to the WNW. Look where it is at 84 hours. Just off the coast of SE Florida. But do note how weak the vorticity is at this time as shown by the 850mb MSLP

#29 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:21 am

gatorcane wrote:06Z GFS shows a Vorticity in the region starting in 6 hours and moves it off to the WNW. Look where it is at 84 hours. Just off the coast of SE Florida:

nothing doing on the nhc site though, not even a yellow alert, Floridians are going to have withdrawal if something doesnt get going real quick

#30 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:23 am

gatorcane wrote:06Z GFS shows a Vorticity in the region starting in 6 hours and moves it off to the WNW. Look where it is at 84 hours. Just off the coast of SE Florida:

nothing doing on the nhc site though, not even a yellow alert, Floridians are going to have withdrawal if something doesnt get going real quick

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:23 am

well the NHC will issue a code yellow or greater if this area persist which it has now for about 24 hours....if it is still there in another 24 hours look for a code issued by the NHC.

by the way today is the peak of hurricane season. It seems long but *alot* is left.

#32 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:47 am

gatorcane wrote::uarrow:

well the NHC will issue a code yellow or greater if this area persist which it has now for about 24 hours....if it is still there in another 24 hours look for a code issued by the NHC.

by the way today is the peak of hurricane season. It seems long but *alot* is left.

yep and florida tends to get real active through the end of october

#33 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:08 am

looks like the 00Z GFS brings ex-Josephine into South Florida in about 4 days. That seems a bit fast though:

#34 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:22 am

12Z NAM rolling in and develops the system as it pushes west towards the bahamas..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#35 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:37 am

Nam 500mg prog at H+60

Strong ridging to the north once again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:37 am

something approaching the Bahamas and SE Florida yet again: This is only 72 hours out. I really am trying hard not to believe this

#37 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:44 am

gator,

several models have indicated this for the past 3-4 days. convection is really begining to fire this morning just east of the leewards..regardless, this entire area is forecast to be in the bahamas in 3 days.

#38 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:46 am

I cannot retrievs NWS San Juan discussion this morning. Does anyone have the link? Also, does JB have anything to say regarding x-josey

#39 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:48 am

NAM at 78 hours moving WNW into the SE Bahamas...

Yeah I know its the NAM though

#40 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:50 am

per the 14:15 UTC Vis its obvious something is going on..Inflow from the south and east is increasing..

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