ATL: IKE Discussion

[cape_escape]

I posted this question in the Models thread, and tought I'd try my luck here with it as well, not sure which thread would be the right one to post such a question.....sorry

I'm just curiouse, please don't scorn me for asking this, but with Ike going more South through Cuba and poss into the Carib, and there being a NE hook at the end of some of the runs, is it possible he could come into the central Gulf and hook a right into SWFla or perhaps the Tampa area....such as Charley did?

I know I'm prob WAY off in my thinking because so many things go into forecasting something like that, but I guess I have a fear after Charley.

Thank you in advance for any replies!

Don't forget, with Charley, Port Charlotte was in the cone. Right now the W. Coast of FL is not in the 3 or 5 day cone. That doesn't mean that later on in the week things might change but for the short term I would not worry.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That's very true...I didn't look at it that way!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still appears west near 270 or so. If it keeps up at its current speed its core will move over water in the next 90-120 minutes.

[carversteve]

At Ike's current speed and motion,will he not get into the carribean for quite a few hours?? And that would not be good!!

[KWT]

Its getting close Hurakan to the coast, hard to imagine it won't make it now to the Caribbean even if it does lift up a little north of west as is expected.

[Frank2]

Interesting - some here yesterday mentioned the possibility of Ike going due west into the Caribbean - it's about to do that, save for a last minute change in track...

Only the UK model predicted that possibility in some way, though not the due west track we've been seeing...

You never know - it may not affect the Gulf at all, but, might be a Central American concern...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

Almost there!

[AJC3]

Interesting - some here yesterday mentioned the possibility of Ike going due west into the Caribbean - it's about to do that, save for a last minute change in track...

Only the UK model predicted that possibility in some way, though not the due west track we've been seeing...

You never know - it may not affect the Gulf at all, but, might be a Central American concern...

Frank

The northern tip of Belize is at 18.2N. There's no way this comes close, barring a totally unforeseen southwest turn that would defy both the models and the atmosphere.

[Frank2]

True, but, back on Thursday no one here would have guessed it's track since then...

[dwg71]

any guesses as to current intensity, 75Kts??

[Frank2]

...sadly, it seems western Cuba might get pounded once again...

[AJC3]

True, but, back on Thursday no one here would have guessed it's track since then...

Actually the ECM suggested a track across Cuba as early as WED. Not as totally unforeseen as you are suggesting.

[apocalypt-flyer]

True, but, back on Thursday no one here would have guessed it's track since then...

Some models have forecasted this scenario nearly a WEEK ago.

[Frank2]

No, but, that was one model track that was considered bogus, I'll bet - that's one reason some were suspect of those "railroad track-like" model runs towards South Florida - it just didn't make sense, since they seemed to act as it the atmosphere was absent any other weather systems...

[tolakram]

[poof121]

Isn't that a trough digging down off the west coast of florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Almost looks like a ULL is trying to develop in the GOM.

[HouTXmetro]

Yes, the EURO which has come under attack on this website by some.

[apocalypt-flyer]

No, but, that was one model track that was considered bogus, I'll bet

Most CERTAINLY not with that ridge that has been forecasted to build in.

[Frank2]

poof121,

I don't see a trough - it appears that the ridge is still moving along with Ike...

[Steve]

>>This could get interesting!!

This already is interesting. I don't understand. Did you mean, "this could get interesting for me?" Please elaborate. kthx

Steve

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ike doesn't appear to be slowing and is rapidly approaching the coast. Unless what appears to be the center is not the center then it appears to me Ike will make it a decent distance south of Cuba prior to turning NW. Surface observations, from a distance, appear to confirm the location of the center.

In the few years I've been watching these storms I don't recall short term models being very far off so I have to think Ike will make a turn sooner rather than later, but it appears he will get into the Caribbean.



This track, in the short term, appears to be the most accurate.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation