ATL: IKE Discussion

[CronkPSU]

is it back over water yet? haven't seen a radar image and I am at work so I don't have my Sat links

[teal61]

The 11 AM NHC forecast track would be the doomsday storm for Galveston.

The NHC keeps Ike at 100 knots before landfall so that is a positive.

100 knts....piece o cake....lol

Time to think about making some initial preparations. If the forecast is similar tommorow morn, SE Texas will be nuts.

[HouTXmetro]

Guys, why are we arguing over semantics? A formidable Hurricane will be in the Gulf in a couple of days. Jeez, that's the bottom line!

[baitism]

The 11 AM NHC forecast track would be the doomsday storm for Galveston.

The NHC keeps Ike at 100 knots before landfall so that is a positive.

Unless western Cuba kills Ike like it did Gustav, which I don't think will happen, Ike will spend the better part of four days in the gulf with alot better conditions for strengthening than Gustav ever had.

100 kts seems really conservative...

[pablolopez26]

We may not be as lucky this time around. Definitley a flash back to Rita.

I hope you are wrong and this thing hits somewhere else. Can you imagine Houston with no power for even 1 week? Not a pretty picture.

[TampaFl]

11:00am position - still moving wes & now moving into the Caribbean Sea.

[Stormcenter]

Guys, why are we arguing over semantics? A formidable Hurricane will be in the Gulf in a couple of days. Jeez, that's the bottom line!

I agree.

[ConvergenceZone]

The 11 AM NHC forecast track would be the doomsday storm for Galveston.

The NHC keeps Ike at 100 knots before landfall so that is a positive.

they will raise the winds if this doesn't weaken as much as forecast, and remember the error in winds is huge...I think it will be a high cat 3 or 4 in that hot gulf low shear environment.

[Sanibel]

You Gulf coasters didn't want Ike to re-emerge straight out into the Caribbean as it has.

[vaffie]

The 11 AM NHC forecast track would be the doomsday storm for Galveston.

The NHC keeps Ike at 100 knots before landfall so that is a positive.

they will raise the winds if this doesn't weaken as much as forecast, and remember the error in winds is huge...I think it will be a high cat 3 or 4 in that hot gulf low shear environment.

Remember too that the water south of Cuba is the warmest in the entire Atlantic basin. The difference in strength between it going over that water and over Cuba itself is night and day.

[PTrackerLA]

I sure hope they can pick up everyone's storm debris before around here before Ike makes landfall. A SE TX hit as a large hurricane would certainly place my area in TS conditions and make quite the mess once again. Winds would be strongest from the opposite direction (south) as they were with Gus so weakened trees could fall leading to more problems. Basically exactly what we DON'T need less than 2 weeks after Gustav. Surge would also be a major issue ala Rita. Terrible scenario for our state.

[Air Force Met]

To those doubting jeff on the windfield expansion, he said on a recent conference call he sees a Katrina/Carla sized storm. But not as big as Gilbert. I didn't realize we had so many experts on this board. We are so blessed.

The NHC makes no mention of it (they normally would) their 11:00am discussion so I'll
leave it at that.

I think you're in denial this time

Mee too. Get over what or what not the NHC mentions. Intensity or size. Trust me.

[HURAKAN]

Caribbean Sea, here we go.

[vbhoutex]

We may not be as lucky this time around. Definitley a flash back to Rita.

I hope you are wrong and this thing hits somewhere else. Can you imagine Houston with no power for even 1 week? Not a pretty picture.

Been there done that and don't ever want to do it again. 1983-Alicia

[jinftl]

NHC Forecast trend of cumulative probability of the locations below experiencing 34kt, 50kt, 64kt in the forecast period (120 hours). The first % is what was forecast with 5am Monday advisory, the second % (in bold) is the current monday 11 am forecast probability.

Keep an eye on these with each new forecast advisory...it helps to see trends and assess risk.


Key West
34kt 55%-51%
50kt 18%-17%
64kt 6%-5%

Tampa
34kt 24%-22%
50kt 6%-4%
64kt 2%-2%

Pensacola
34kt 28%-27%
50kt 11%-9%
64kt 5%-4%

Gulfport
34kt 32%-33%
50kt 13%-12%
64kt 5%-5%

New Orleans
34kt 36%-37%
50kt 14%-14%
64kt 5%-5%

Galveston
34kt 22%-24%
50kt 9%-10%
64kt 5%-6%

[Sanibel]

Stripped of convection:

[weatherbud]

Hurricane Ike is now a Category 2, moves through Cuba. Texas is next?

Hurricane IKE has been downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane at this hour. IKE is rolling through Northern Cuba with winds of 100mph. I do expect it to get weaker as it stays over land the next 24-48 hours. Cuba is a long but NARROW country so IKE should be able to recover once it moves away from Cuba on Wednesday sometime. After that it heads into the open Gulf of Mexico.

[bayoubebe]

[quote="Stormcenter

Mee too. Get over what or what not the NHC mentions. Intensity or size. Trust me.

Why? Hasn't the NHC been pretty accurate this season?

[dwg71]

Any deviation or Jog/wobble NW and it will hug the coast and would effect any intensification in the next 36 hours.

Lets see how it plays out before we write off Galveston. NHC does not have a landfall forecast yet and they are uncertain of where on the gulf coast IKE will end up.

[tolakram]