ATL: IKE Discussion

[pablolopez26]

We may not be as lucky this time around. Definitley a flash back to Rita.

I hope you are wrong and this thing hits somewhere else. Can you imagine Houston with no power for even 1 week? Not a pretty picture.

Been there done that and don't ever want to do it again. 1983-Alicia

Seriously though, id evacuate Houston for a Category 3 storm just because of the fact that being without power in Houston would be just horrible.

The way i look at it, Houston would have so many downed trees, flooding on local streets, no power, id rather be in a comfortable hotel room in Dallas for 1 week than uncomfortable dark hot and humid living room here in Houston.

[Galvestongirl]

We may not be as lucky this time around. Definitley a flash back to Rita.

I hope you are wrong and this thing hits somewhere else. Can you imagine Houston with no power for even 1 week? Not a pretty picture.

Been there done that and don't ever want to do it again. 1983-Alicia

Me too, although I was only 18 at the time it is a memory I wont forget....despite my name...I do not live in galveston, I am 20 miles inland, we stayed.....it was miserable for a couple of weeks.

[Houstonia]

We may not be as lucky this time around. Definitley a flash back to Rita.

I hope you are wrong and this thing hits somewhere else. Can you imagine Houston with no power for even 1 week? Not a pretty picture.

Been there done that and don't ever want to do it again. 1983-Alicia

Yeah.. me too... yuck yuck yuck.. extension cords running across the street to provide those who DIDN'T have power - with just enough power to run fans to blow the hot wet air around the house. Cutting down the trees that feel on the power lines before HL&P would even THINK about coming out to repair.

Oy VEY it was SO HOT AND MUGGY after Alicia!!!

[njweather]

[quote="Stormcenter

Mee too. Get over what or what not the NHC mentions. Intensity or size. Trust me.

Why? Hasn't the NHC been pretty accurate this season?

Can you imagine all the commotion if the NHC said "...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IKE MAY OCCUPY THE ENTIRE GULF LATER THIS WEEK..."?

[AJC3]

[quote="Stormcenter

Mee too. Get over what or what not the NHC mentions. Intensity or size. Trust me.

Why? Hasn't the NHC been pretty accurate this season?

I think he's just pointing out the failings of overanalyzing what NHC does or does not say in their TCDs.

[jasons2k]

I heard the confernce call from Jeff Lindner as well. Sobering to say the least. He said based in the current (then 8AM) NHC track he would put landfall just slightly right of it, maybe Jefferson County TX or Cameron. He said the NHC might adjust the track slightly left at 11AM towards Matagorda - which they did - he said if that were the case his track then would be Freeport to Pt. Bolivar. He expects this to top-out as a Cat 4, maybe it will "make a run at a Cat. 5" as he put it, and he expects LF as a large Cat 3 similar in size to Katrina, maybe Carla.

He also said the track for Ike was very straighforward and unfortunately, the setup just does not imply anything to cause a big change in the track forecast.

[Air Force Met]

Why? Hasn't the NHC been pretty accurate this season?

That's not my point. My point is the BIG mistake MANY people make on this site thinking they know exactly what the mets at the NHC and HPC are thinking by a 300 word discussion.

Trust me...you don't. You read in the discussions what they want you to read. That's it. Back in the day when it was an intergovernmental discussion and not released to the public...it was a lot more candid.

Today...we have conference calls for that. On those calls...they tell us (and the HPC) what they REALLY think....and I can promise you there are many times the "its too early" doesn't really mean they don't have a gut feeling based on what they are seeing. There are also many times that a leveled off intensity for 2 days at 100 kts doesn't mean they really don't think it will be higher.

So...the error is: Don't think you really know by reading some public discussion of 300 words. Don't even try to read b/w the lines.

[curtadams]

Unless western Cuba kills Ike like it did Gustav, which I don't think will happen, Ike will spend the better part of four days in the gulf with alot better conditions for strengthening than Gustav ever had.

100 kts seems really conservative...

GFDL predicts about 100 kts, due to a very large eye. HWRF predicts stronger in the Gulf but weaker as it approaches land. (other models aren't very useful at these intensities, the grids are too coarse). So a little bearish on the part of the NHC, but not very. Yeah the GFS is predicting a monster but I'll go with the GFDL for now since it's based on the same steering field but accounts for inner-core dynamics. My earlier concerns that it was artifactually increasing the eye size are gone now that we're having an ERC going to a very large core.

The NHC intensity forecast explicit accounted for the possibility Ike wouldn't spend 36 hours over land, so this move to the Carib shouldn't change their forecast too much.

[smw1981]

Just by looking at that model graphic a few posts above this you can see that things have drastically changed in the past 4 days as far as forecast. on 09/04, All of the models showed Ike either recurving off FL's east coast or directly hitting south Florida. That didn't happen, and that was a 4 day forecast! No need to panic yet...

[njweather]

Today...we have conference calls for that. On those calls...they tell us (and the HPC) what they REALLY think....

How do you get in on these conference calls?

Anyone have some #s / links?

[Sabanic]

Just by looking at that model graphic a few posts above this you can see that things have drastically changed in the past 4 days as far as forecast. on 09/04, All of the models showed Ike either recurving off FL's east coast or directly hitting south Florida. That didn't happen, and that was a 4 day forecast! No need to panic yet...

Exactly.

Long, long ways to go with Ike.

[Air Force Met]

I think he's just pointing out the failings of overanalyzing what NHC does or does not say in their TCDs.

Bingo....give that man a Cigar.

And you probably listen in on the calls and note the diff b/w the two sometimes.

[bayoubebe]

Why? Hasn't the NHC been pretty accurate this season?

That's not my point. My point is the BIG mistake MANY people make on this site thinking they know exactly what the mets at the NHC and HPC are thinking by a 300 word discussion.

Trust me...you don't. You read in the discussions what they want you to read. That's it. Back in the day when it was an intergovernmental discussion and not released to the public...it was a lot more candid.

Today...we have conference calls for that. On those calls...they tell us (and the HPC) what they REALLY think....and I can promise you there are many times the "its too early" doesn't really mean they don't have a gut feeling based on what they are seeing. There are also many times that a leveled off intensity for 2 days at 100 kts doesn't mean they really don't think it will be higher.

So...the error is: Don't think you really know by reading some public discussion of 300 words. Don't even try to read b/w the lines.

Understood. Thanks for explaining.

[Tireman4]

Now is the time to pray for a strong cold front.

[gboudx]

I heard the confernce call from Jeff Lindner as well. Sobering to say the least. He said based in the current (then 8AM) NHC track he would put landfall just slightly right of it, maybe Jefferson County TX or Cameron. He said the NHC might adjust the track slightly left at 11AM towards Matagorda - which they did - he said if that were the case his track then would be Freeport to Pt. Bolivar. He expects this to top-out as a Cat 4, maybe it will "make a run at a Cat. 5" as he put it, and he expects LF as a large Cat 3 similar in size to Katrina, maybe Carla.

He also said the track for Ike was very straighforward and unfortunately, the setup just does not imply anything to cause a big change in the track forecast.

Thanks jason. That's what I heard as well and didn't want to post it here without confirmation from another participant.

[Air Force Met]

Today...we have conference calls for that. On those calls...they tell us (and the HPC) what they REALLY think....

How do you get in on these conference calls?

Anyone have some #s / links?

Yeah right. Better be government or EOC related. Otherwise...not allowed.

[shah8]

So, we're reliant on that friendly neighborhood ULL to do the deed like what happened with Gustav?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Today...we have conference calls for that. On those calls...they tell us (and the HPC) what they REALLY think....

How do you get in on these conference calls?

Anyone have some #s / links?

Yeah right. Better be government or EOC related. Otherwise...not allowed.

So, what is the real skinny? The highway signs that advise of accidents are all flashing "Hurricane Season Is Here- Fill Your gas Tanks", but they did that for Gustav as well, and I got a 10 minute rain shower from Gustav.

[jinftl]

He actually said the track is straightforward? Miami thought the same thing thursday. Other than tracking into the Gulf, there is no way the path of Ike is a straightforward bee-line towards any one spot.

I heard the confernce call from Jeff Lindner as well. Sobering to say the least. He said based in the current (then 8AM) NHC track he would put landfall just slightly right of it, maybe Jefferson County TX or Cameron. He said the NHC might adjust the track slightly left at 11AM towards Matagorda - which they did - he said if that were the case his track then would be Freeport to Pt. Bolivar. He expects this to top-out as a Cat 4, maybe it will "make a run at a Cat. 5" as he put it, and he expects LF as a large Cat 3 similar in size to Katrina, maybe Carla.

He also said the track for Ike was very straighforward and unfortunately, the setup just does not imply anything to cause a big change in the track forecast.

[RBDnhm]

Does anyone know if Entergy has any additional capacity to restore power in southeast Texas and southeast Louisiana if Ike were to hit here? I would be willing to bet almost all their trucks are already in Louisiana and I have personally seen trucks from as far away as North Salt Lake City already headed to Louisiana.