ATL: IKE Discussion

[micktooth]

Hey Gang, can we please stick with discussing Ike? We're almost up to page 300. Can you take other discussions to other boards? There is a Hurricane that will be in the Gulf soon and I think it's important to keep this forum open for direct discussions of Ike. Thank you very much.

[wxman57]

I'd expect a model shift southward, possibly to Corpus Christi to Victoria. Ike continues to track left of guidance today. I don't like forecasting a Cat 3-4 to hit my house.

[Steve]

Here's a question - how many times has Texas been hit 3 times by named storms in a season? It can't be that many, that's for sure.

Steve

[marciacubed]

IMO Ike is tightening up. I think gaining a little strength since he popped out over water. The last sat. image makes me think so. How far away from Cuba does he have to be to be able to send Recon in?

[Lowpressure]

I'd expect a model shift southward, possibly to Corpus Christi to Victoria. Ike continues to track left of guidance today. I don't like forecasting a Cat 3-4 to hit my house.

Somehow, I do not think you would ever be accused of -removed-.

[Portastorm]

I'd expect a model shift southward, possibly to Corpus Christi to Victoria. Ike continues to track left of guidance today. I don't like forecasting a Cat 3-4 to hit my house.

OK, now I really am concerned if YOU are saying this! A major hurricane hit there would also mean horrible conditions even in my neighborhood (south Austin, TX), some 200 miles inland!

[dwg71]

wxman - it appears to be trending west and further west. Lets see if it continues.

How about a cat 1 splitting BRO and Corpus.

That would be best case scenerio (sans a dissapation)

[VeniceInlet]

Sir, I'm sure you are correct, however, as an uneducated and uninformed dumbo I still reserve the right to place my faith in the weather reports from the weather expect who I find to be most accurate.....

Maybe it all depends upon who is comprehending what...if the Local ProMet is closer to accuracy than the NHC then I'll trust that person...I really don't care if he uses his big toe to forecast. .

First of all, it's Ma'am and second, I did not call you uneducated or uninformed. You took that out of context from a different post where I was making a different point to a different person.

What comes out of a computer is only as accurate as what goes into one.

I think that was my point. What's going into them is better today than it was a few years ago.

You can choose to believe whomever you want. I only posted that information because some people might not know how much technology has changed, and that what happened a few years ago isn't necessarily relevant to today.

[KWT]

wxman57, most models that have come out already are showing a track in that area, obviously the longer it takes to lift out then the further west it goes it seems.

Also wouldn't the deeper water you mention mean it holds near peak strength for longer upto the coast?

Anyway I think its odds on this gets its major status back in the Gulf, a further west path gives it even longer in the very high heat content.

[funster]

I'd expect a model shift southward, possibly to Corpus Christi to Victoria. Ike continues to track left of guidance today. I don't like forecasting a Cat 3-4 to hit my house.

Argh. Another Texas evacuation in the works. Any idea how fast Ike would moving? Would there also be a Allison like flood problem in addition to the wind/surge problem?

[srainhoutx]

I'd expect a model shift southward, possibly to Corpus Christi to Victoria. Ike continues to track left of guidance today. I don't like forecasting a Cat 3-4 to hit my house.

Thanks wxman57. I don't want to see another Carla type cyclone in my lifetime either. If you can, drop over to the "Local Forum" with some thoughts. They would be welcomed there too.

[HouTXmetro]

Ya'll think the NHC will adjust the track?

[Nexus]

IMO Ike is tightening up. I think gaining a little strength since he popped out over water. The last sat. image makes me think so. How far away from Cuba does he have to be to be able to send Recon in?

During the daytime, recon is allowed to go over land.

[Lowpressure]

wxman - it appears to be trending west and further west. Lets see if it continues.

How about a cat 1 splitting BRO and Corpus.

That would be best case scenerio (sans a dissapation)

Sorry to say, but this will be much stronger than cat1. You can wish and I will wish with you. Buying plywood might be a better use of time.

[KWT]

wxman - it appears to be trending west and further west. Lets see if it continues.

How about a cat 1 splitting BRO and Corpus.

That would be best case scenerio (sans a dissapation)

Hopefully that happens but probably will be closer to Bret strength then cat-1 at landfall...still your right thats the best case and the one I'm hoping for.

Ike seems to be trying to wrap up though I think the land interaction is preventing it really wrapping up too well on the northern side, a problem that obviously won't be around for a good 72-96hrs in the gulf...

[dwg71]

Ya'll think the NHC will adjust the track?

Lets see what euro GFDL and HWRF do, if they are all south of NHC track, then yes it will move south.

[Lowpressure]

wxman57, most models that have come out already are showing a track in that area, obviously the longer it takes to lift out then the further west it goes it seems.

Also wouldn't the deeper water you mention mean it holds near peak strength for longer upto the coast?

Anyway I think its odds on this gets its major status back in the Gulf, a further west path gives it even longer in the very high heat content.

The other MAJOR point of concern is the recent trend of storms to strengthen rapidly on approach to the Texas coastline.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

IMO Ike is tightening up. I think gaining a little strength since he popped out over water. The last sat. image makes me think so. How far away from Cuba does he have to be to be able to send Recon in?

During the daytime, recon is allowed to go over land.

Once a system makes landfall it doesn't matter if its day or night, recon is NOT allowed to travel into the parts of the system that are over land. Theres to much risk involved with flying into a system while over land.

[haml8]

I'd expect a model shift southward, possibly to Corpus Christi to Victoria. Ike continues to track left of guidance today. I don't like forecasting a Cat 3-4 to hit my house.

Thanks wxman57. I don't want to see another Carla type cyclone in my lifetime either. If you can, drop over to the "Local Forum" with some thoughts. They would be welcomed there too.

Local forum link please??

[gatorcane]

what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...