ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

Discussions about models are being held at the models thread,Thank you.

[Tireman4]

http://www.khou.com go to forums...weather

[marciacubed]

IMO Ike is tightening up. I think gaining a little strength since he popped out over water. The last sat. image makes me think so. How far away from Cuba does he have to be to be able to send Recon in?

During the daytime, recon is allowed to go over land.

Once a system makes landfall it doesn't matter if its day or night, recon is NOT allowed to travel into the parts of the system that are over land. Theres to much risk involved with flying into a system while over land.

Thanks for answering my question, now another one. When will there be a Recon sent out?

[rtd2]

what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.
In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...

BILOXI still in the house!

[jlauderdal]

Ya'll think the NHC will adjust the track?

Lets see what euro GFDL and HWRF do, if they are all south of NHC track, then yes it will move south.

gfdl and hwrf are on a completely different page than euro and have been for over a week, i doubt nhc is looking for agreement with that trio

[jlauderdal]

wxman57, most models that have come out already are showing a track in that area, obviously the longer it takes to lift out then the further west it goes it seems.

Also wouldn't the deeper water you mention mean it holds near peak strength for longer upto the coast?

Anyway I think its odds on this gets its major status back in the Gulf, a further west path gives it even longer in the very high heat content.

The other MAJOR point of concern is the recent trend of storms to strengthen rapidly on approach to the Texas coastline.

which recent trend is that?

[bikerbabe]

what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...

Interesting observation.
I'm here. Just being quiet.

[jlauderdal]

what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...

i threw a few posts up just for you young gator

[Senobia]

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...

We have to come here - if we want to know what's going on. Our local mets (SE Texas) aren't saying anything, save for a passing blip in their forecasts.

This is what one of them had to say:
Ike is moving over the Cuba this morning as a catagory 2 hurricane with 100 mph sustained winds. Motion is west at 14 mph. Located at 21.1 N and 77.9 W. and will likely be a threat to the Eastern Gulf by Tuesday or Wednesday.

But he has forecast on the 5 day outlook TS storm force winds (40mph) for Friday with 40% chance of rain.

This is what the other one had to say:

The Tropics remain active with Hurricane Ike weakening over Cuba. By Early Wednesday, the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify

With this being his forecast for Friday:

Friday: Partly sunny...no rainfall forecasted. Low: 76. High: 93. Wind: N/NE 20mph.

I understand not wanting to start the fear mongering, but kindly have some consideration for the viewers who might not have access to this board to know all the ins and outs with the what ifs.

[jinftl]

Pressure gradient from Ike and high offshore definitely kicking up the breeeze in SFl.

Wind reports from NWS Miami as of 1pm:

W PALM BEACH E21G29
FT LAUDER-EXEC E25G37
FT LAUDERDALE E17
POMPANO BEACH E21G29
MIAMI E25G32
WEST KENDALL E28G35
HOMESTEAD E22G30

[smw1981]

what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...

I said something about this during Gustav and was told by a Mod that it wasn't their fault that there are more Texas members than MGC, AL, and FL panhandle....

Also, I think (actually know) that people get tired of all of the Texas folks saying "it is coming here". Not that MGC, LA, Alabama and FL people don't say that, there are just more Texans so therefore it gets said over and over and over again. Someone PMed me last night saying this is exactly what happened with Gustav and it didn't even rain in TX...no use sticking around listening (reading) all of that.

Please do not yell at me for saying all of this....like I said, everyone else does it too!

[Brent]

Thanks for answering my question, now another one. When will there be a Recon sent out?

There's actually one about to be in the center within the next few minutes.

[jinftl]

YES. 4 times a day. That could mean 20 or 25 more track upates before a landfall in the Gulf...

Ya'll think the NHC will adjust the track?

[KWT]

Inner core still seems to be having a hard time developing convection still, however that tends to happen after a long track overland the convection does tend to weaken for about 6hrs then as the core readjusts it tends to strengthen again.

I'm very curious to see what Ike will looks like when it exits Cuba.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF is nasty..Takes due west then Wacks Galveston Bay from the south...Worst case IMO

[jlauderdal]

Pressure gradient from Ike and high offshore definitely kicking up the breeeze in SFl.

Wind reports from NWS Miami as of 1pm:

W PALM BEACH E21G29
FT LAUDER-EXEC E25G37
FT LAUDERDALE E17
POMPANO BEACH E21G29
MIAMI E25G32
WEST KENDALL E28G35
HOMESTEAD E22G30

300 dollar weather station doesnt get you much on the anemometer but you get the idea,compared to the tasty weather sat and and morning things have become rich here with moisture and wind, no lift yet so no rain sunny and warm breezes, hopefully the kids stay out of the ocean today, plenty of pool in fll to enjoy the subsidence which will come to an end in a few hours


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLFORTL14

[Lowpressure]

wxman57, most models that have come out already are showing a track in that area, obviously the longer it takes to lift out then the further west it goes it seems.

Also wouldn't the deeper water you mention mean it holds near peak strength for longer upto the coast?

Anyway I think its odds on this gets its major status back in the Gulf, a further west path gives it even longer in the very high heat content.

The other MAJOR point of concern is the recent trend of storms to strengthen rapidly on approach to the Texas coastline.

which recent trend is that?

Here is one good example from the NHC achieves 2007.
Humberto was a short-lived tropical cyclone that made landfall in extreme southeastern Texas as a strong category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). The hurricane is notable for its exceptionally rapid intensification near the coast of Texas from a tropical depression into a hurricane within 19 hours.

Dolly this year.

[N2Storms]

[quote="smw1981"][quote="gatorcane"]what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...[/quote]

I said something about this during Gustav and was told by a Mod that it wasn't their fault that there are more Texas members than MGC, AL, and FL panhandle....

Also, I think (actually know) that people get tired of all of the Texas folks saying "it is coming here". [color=#8000FF]Not that MGC, LA, Alabama and FL people don't say that[/color], there are just more Texans so therefore it gets said over and over and over again. Someone PMed me last night saying this is exactly what happened with Gustav and it didn't even rain in TX...no use sticking around listening (reading) all of that.

Please do not yell at me for saying all of this....like I said, everyone else does it too![/quote]



One of the things I picked up on right away after coming to this board is that almost everyone on here is a "wishcaster" in some form or fashion...some people are wishing storms away from them and others are wishing stoms towards them...it is very easy to tell who falls into which category...personally, I don't find any wrong in either of them, however, I have never understood why anyone would wish a storm in their direction but to each his own I suppose...

[Aristotle]

I see the eye is now nicely off the southern coast of Cuba. And already the T-storms are starting at the center.


Lets here from so pro mets on the intensification possiblities.

[rtd2]

YES. 4 times a day. That could mean 20 or 25 more track upates before a landfall in the Gulf...

Ya'll think the NHC will adjust the track?

new tracks are issued at 10am, 4pm/ 10pm, 4am CDT