ATL: IKE Discussion

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TampaFl
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5621 Postby TampaFl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:19 pm

fci wrote:
attallaman wrote:So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?


You will be the best judge of whether your area is in the clear.

Personally, until a storm has passed my area, I continue to keep tabs on it.
For instance; until Ike went south of Cuba, I was very attentive.

When he goes into the GOM, I will continue to watch just to make sure he does not take right turn.
When he is past my Latitude and Longitude and heading away, I feel the "all clear".

Maybe that is just me........


Agree FCI - I have always said as long as you have a hurricane to your southeast & south heading into the GOM - always keep an eye on it untill it passes your latitude/longitude. Every one in the GOM needs to pay attention. NHC in there 11:00am disco said:


000
WTNT44 KNHC 081453
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

ALL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THIS TURN IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5622 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:Major model shift 18Z. Focus shifting south to mid TX coast. Corpus Christi to Victoria.


More good news, Arggg. Thanks wxman57.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5623 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:22 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:You know, fci, I was just thinking the exact same thing. I can't figure out why they keep putting that in there, to be honest, but it does make me wonder.....


It's the proximity, not the expectation.
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#5624 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:23 pm

TampaFl, I think the message in bold is still key because it is indeed still early to know exactly where Ike will track, though right now the main region up for threat does appear to be Texas based on the models.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5625 Postby pablolopez26 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:23 pm

Image

Wow, now THATS a split! Geez.
Last edited by pablolopez26 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5626 Postby mpic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:24 pm

I'm sorry, but if it looks like Ike is a direct hit on Houston, I just don't see those evac routes doing any good for those south of Houston. They don't even start until the north side and all of us are still going to be in a massive traffic jam. JMHO Rant over.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5627 Postby jinftl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:24 pm

given the margin of error for so far out, focusing on cities not even that far apart is a crap shoot.


srainhoutx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Major model shift 18Z. Focus shifting south to mid TX coast. Corpus Christi to Victoria.


More good news, Arggg. Thanks wxman57.
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#5628 Postby Nexus » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:26 pm

Very small eye feature appearing on IR?

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5629 Postby Sabanic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:26 pm

MBryant wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:You know, fci, I was just thinking the exact same thing. I can't figure out why they keep putting that in there, to be honest, but it does make me wonder.....


It's the proximity, not the expectation.


It may be some of that, but I still believe it's a matter of Not 100% Sure & CYA
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5630 Postby jinftl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:26 pm

Why do they evacuate so far inland in Texas? In South Florida, the evacuation zone where I live in Broward County, even for a Cat5, is less than 3 or 4 miles from the coast in most spots.

I guess where I am, officials mandate evacuate to protect from surge only. Does the surge threat go very far inland say aroudn Hoston or are people told to leave for wind too?


mpic wrote:I'm sorry, but if it looks like Ike is a direct hit on Houston, I just don't see those evac routes doing any good for those south of Houston. They don't even start until the north side and all of us are still going to be in a massive traffic jam. JMHO Rant over.
Last edited by jinftl on Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5631 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:27 pm

jinftl, yep models just too far apart to really tell right now where is the main risk zone though the models have sort of organised themselves into a cone on pablolopez26 image I see! :P

Looks like the inner eyewall is really degrading now and the outer eyewall is starting to contract somewhat it seems...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5632 Postby pablolopez26 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:28 pm

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_national/hurricanes_cities/index.html?SITE=LABAT

This was a study regarding storm surge in Galveston if a Cat 4 were to hit directly. An interesting read and images as well.
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#5633 Postby artist » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:28 pm

what would happen with the steering if Ike were to get to low ts strength? Would it remain the same as now?
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#5634 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:30 pm

Also I'm noticing some pretty impressive wind values in Florida right now probably enhanced by the graident between Ike and the high.
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Re:

#5635 Postby rtd2 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:31 pm

artist wrote:what would happen with the steering if Ike were to get to low ts strength? Would it remain the same as now?




less power= more west more power=more north
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5636 Postby mpic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:31 pm

jinftl wrote:Why do they evacuate so far inland in Texas? In South Florida, the evacuation zone where I live in Broward County, even for a Cat5, is less than 3 or 4 miles from the coast in most spots.


mpic wrote:I'm sorry, but if it looks like Ike is a direct hit on Houston, I just don't see those evac routes doing any good for those south of Houston. They don't even start until the north side and all of us are still going to be in a massive traffic jam. JMHO Rant over.


The evac zones aren't the problem. It's the contraflow lanes that don't start until north side. So you have thousands of people on the coast FOLLOWING the people inland trying to get out. There is no enforcement of when zones are suppose to leave. So the people in the most danger run into those who aren't probably in any danger at all or at least a lot less danger.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5637 Postby ELF62 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:34 pm

mpic wrote:I'm sorry, but if it looks like Ike is a direct hit on Houston, I just don't see those evac routes doing any good for those south of Houston. They don't even start until the north side and all of us are still going to be in a massive traffic jam. JMHO Rant over.



They would work "OK" if it were not for the Houston "Hype" media working people into a frenzy that are not even in the evac zones. If you notice that includes a VERY large portion of the Houston metro area. If the people not in the evac zones would stay off the roads and let the people that actually NEED to evacuate leave I think it would work a lot better. But as usual the Houston media will ignore this and we will have another fiasco. Just my amateur thoughts.
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#5638 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:35 pm

Eye appears to be starting to clear out now somewhat though the inner eywall still circulating within the larger eyewall. Also seems to me that Ike has lifted a tuch more probably on a 280 type heading now...though I'm very hesitant with that idea as the outer eyewall is taking over and the inner eyewall is a bit messy.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5639 Postby jinftl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:35 pm

so does it seem like there are lots of people leaving who may not in reality have to evacuate? i know you can't prevent anyone from leaving...and one of things that oddly may help florida is that there are really not too many places to go except north...riding out a cat 2 in inland palm beach may not make any difference than riding out a cat 2 in inland broward.

is there any message sent to flee storm surge more than wind?

mpic wrote:
jinftl wrote:Why do they evacuate so far inland in Texas? In South Florida, the evacuation zone where I live in Broward County, even for a Cat5, is less than 3 or 4 miles from the coast in most spots.


mpic wrote:I'm sorry, but if it looks like Ike is a direct hit on Houston, I just don't see those evac routes doing any good for those south of Houston. They don't even start until the north side and all of us are still going to be in a massive traffic jam. JMHO Rant over.


The evac zones aren't the problem. It's the contraflow lanes that don't start until north side. So you have thousands of people on the coast FOLLOWING the people inland trying to get out. There is no enforcement of when zones are suppose to leave. So the people in the most danger run into those who aren't probably in any danger at all or at least a lot less danger.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5640 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:36 pm

"Why do they evacuate so far inland in Texas? In South Florida, the evacuation zone where I live in Broward County, even for a Cat5, is less than 3 or 4 miles from the coast in most spots."

Three reasons.

1. The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.
2. The upper Texas coast is in the piney woods and you DON'T want to be under pine trees in even a moderate hurricane. Rita opened up many eyes about staying at camps along the inland lakes.
3. There are too few places to stay within 100 miles of the city.
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