ATL: IKE Discussion

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clfenwi
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5641 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:36 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:What do you guys think of this plot here? It's hard to follow the lines, but the one that hit Brownsville (I think) emerged near where Ike is right now.

(image snipped)


Ike has really been a climo buster. If you took his initial position and tried to use climo to predict its track you would have had it out to sea, or maybe North Carolina. A few days later, Florida, etc.

Here's a look at September hurricanes within 150 nm of Ike's 2PM position: Image

Once you throw out the storms that went by the position on a northward trajectory, the majority of climo shows what the models are showing, something between south Texas and western Louisiana.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5642 Postby mpic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:38 pm

ELF62 wrote:
mpic wrote:I'm sorry, but if it looks like Ike is a direct hit on Houston, I just don't see those evac routes doing any good for those south of Houston. They don't even start until the north side and all of us are still going to be in a massive traffic jam. JMHO Rant over.



They would work "OK" if it were not for the Houston "Hype" media working people into a frenzy that are not even in the evac zones. If you notice that includes a VERY large portion of the Houston metro area. If the people not in the evac zones would stay off the roads and let the people that actually NEED to evacuate leave I think it would work a lot better. But as usual the Houston media will ignore this and we will have another fiasco. Just my amateur thoughts.


Exactly! They need to block all entrance ramps and only allow coastal zones to evac at intervals so people can getout safely. This year I am bobe on bone on my clutch knee in my truck and no way can I do another Rita evac. I will be leaving tomorrow night no matter what.

Here's another link to that possible storm surge map that's easier to see. I live in Dickinson...mobile home, no less.

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%20Texas%20City.pdf
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5643 Postby jinftl » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:38 pm

Is there a map that shows the simulation of the 15 foot surge going 50 to 100 miles inland. I mean, the MS coast had over 25 feet in surge..that didn't get 10 miles inland from my understanding.

MBryant wrote:"Why do they evacuate so far inland in Texas? In South Florida, the evacuation zone where I live in Broward County, even for a Cat5, is less than 3 or 4 miles from the coast in most spots."

Three reasons.

1. The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.
2. The upper Texas coast is in the piney woods and you DON'T want to be under pine trees in even a moderate hurricane. Rita opened up many eyes about staying at camps along the inland lakes.
3. There are too few places to stay within 100 miles of the city.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5644 Postby baitism » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:39 pm

MBryant wrote:The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.


I know it's low. But, there is no way a storm surge reaching 50 miles inland....
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5645 Postby Txdivermom » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Major model shift 18Z. Focus shifting south to mid TX coast. Corpus Christi to Victoria.


a few more shifts and the US may get spared....would that not be unbelievable given where Ike originated?



Corpus to Vic worries me even more...considering how storms in our area have a tendency to shift eastward towards the end.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5646 Postby rtd2 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:41 pm

MBryant wrote:"Why do they evacuate so far inland in Texas? In South Florida, the evacuation zone where I live in Broward County, even for a Cat5, is less than 3 or 4 miles from the coast in most spots."

Three reasons.

1. The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.
2. The upper Texas coast is in the piney woods and you DON'T want to be under pine trees in even a moderate hurricane. Rita opened up many eyes about staying at camps along the inland lakes.
3. There are too few places to stay within 100 miles of the city.



Reason 2 and 3 agree 100%
reason 1..WHAT?... 100 MILES :eek: Katrina and her 30 foot storm surge reach 18-20 miles inland (rivers,creeks ect. parents house was 11 miles inland got 5 ft. from pascagoula river) and 2-3miles on beach front and people are STILL in awe of that..granted we are in one of the worst areas for surge but I can imagine ANY surge reaching 50-100 miles inland in any way
Last edited by rtd2 on Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5647 Postby mpic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:42 pm

baitism wrote:
MBryant wrote:The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.


I know it's low. But, there is no way a storm surge reaching 50 miles inland....


But you also have to consider that the Bay reaches pretty far inland, too, and the Port of Houston. I have no problem with evacuating that far inland, but there is no rhyme or reason to it. Everybosy goes at once even though they are told not to.
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#5648 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:42 pm

It is apparent to me that it wouldn't take much more erosion of the ridge than the models forecast for Ike to turn more northward once in the Gulf. I know that most all of the models have the ridge holding and thus the westward track clear to Texas, but models this far out have been wrong many times in the past so therefore that is why the NHC is still emphasizing that everyone along the Gulf coast should monitor Ike.

I wouldn't be surprised for Ike to get in the central Gulf and the ridge erode more than expected and all the guidance begin a shift northwards, seen it happen many a time!

Right now it looks like Texas and could be, but that is not written in 100% promises from nobody!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5649 Postby jasons2k » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:42 pm

TO ALL TO WHOM THESE PRESENTS SHALL COME:

I, RICK PERRY, Governor of Texas, do hereby certify that Hurricane Ike poses a threat of imminent disaster along the Texas Coast and in the counties of Anderson, Angelina, Aransas, Archer, Austin, Bee, Bell, Bexar, Bowie, Brazoria, Brazos, Brooks, Calhoun, Cameron, Cass, Chambers, Cherokee, Collin, Colorado, Comal, Dallas, Denton, DeWitt, Ellis, El Paso, Fort Bend, Franklin, Galveston, Goliad, Grayson, Gregg, Hardin, Harris, Harrison, Henderson, Hidalgo, Hill, Hopkins, Hunt, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kaufman, Kenedy, Kleberg, Lamar, Lavaca, Liberty, Lubbock, Matagorda, McLennan, Montgomery, Nacogdoches, Navarro, Newton, Nueces, Orange, Panola, Parker, Polk, Potter, Randall, Refugio, Sabine, San Augustine, San Jacinto, San Patricio, Shelby, Smith, Starr, Tarrant, Titus, Tom Green, Travis, Trinity, Tyler, Van Zandt, Victoria, Waller, Walker, Webb, Wharton, Willacy, Williamson, Wise and Wood beginning September 7, 2008 and continuing.

THEREFORE, in accordance with the authority vested in me by Section 418.014 of the Texas Government Code, I do hereby declare a state of disaster based on the existence of such threat and direct that all necessary measures both public and private as authorized under Section 418.017 of the code be implemented to meet that threat.

As provided in Section 418.016, all rules and regulations that may inhibit or prevent prompt response to this threat are suspended for the duration of the state of disaster.

In accordance with the statutory requirements, copies of this proclamation shall be filed with the applicable authorities.

IN TESTIMONY WHEREOF, I have hereunto signed my name and have officially caused the Seal of State to be affixed at my Office in the City of Austin, Texas, this the 8th day of September, 2008.

RICK PERRY
Governor

Attested by:
ESPERANZA “HOPE” ANDRADE
Secretary of State
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5650 Postby Mattie » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:42 pm

[quote="pablolopez26"]Image

This is amazing! I agree with the earlier poster that 5 day cones should be done away with. At this point, as most people hit wunderground.com and get this graphic, the Louisiana coastline stands down until the next advisory; the next advisory issues and it's a swing back to Louisiana, (please input any 2 states of your choice) and pretty soon you have no time to do anything because a tank of gas won't last long sitting on the interstate in bumper to bumper traffic and you haven't even left the city you are evacuating from. This is so stressful! Mother Nature has a mind of her own and we just seem to "chase the rabbit". Be safe everyone where ever this may go.
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#5651 Postby artist » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:43 pm

interesting site regarding Tx surge flooding - scroll down to see pics of historical storm surges -

http://texascoastgeology.com/Hurricanemaps.html
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5652 Postby Aristotle » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:44 pm

If someone could please define the difference between "deep" and "shallow" convection. My understanding has always been that the heat transfer caused deeper ( intensity) thunderstorms closer to the center and that shallow convection ment less heat transfer with less deep (intensity) thunderstorms further from the center.

I want to make sure my understanding of the term is not novice. Any helpers? :oops:
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5653 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:44 pm

Here's the latest WV loop - shortwave diving down into northern KS will cause Ike to slow and turn more NW the next 48 hrs.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
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#5654 Postby artist » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:44 pm

and this site has different county surge maps

http://www.kbmt12.com/weather/hurricane ... 79049.html


(corrected for spelling - I really can spell! :ggreen: )
Last edited by artist on Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5655 Postby pablolopez26 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:45 pm

Mattie wrote:This is so stressful! Mother Nature has a mind of her own and we just seem to "chase the rabbit".


I agree its stressful. The only thing you can do is be prepared and watch its progress. No use in getting a heart attack over something you cant control.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5656 Postby rtd2 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:46 pm

ronjon wrote:Here's the latest WV loop - shortwave diving down into northern KS will cause Ike to slow and turn more NW the next 48 hrs.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html





See it but I dont think it will have enough to turn it plus a WEAK IKE will slide under it
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5657 Postby Houstonia » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:46 pm

baitism wrote:
MBryant wrote:The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.


I know it's low. But, there is no way a storm surge reaching 50 miles inland....


I dont know for sure - I think it may have something to do with the bayou. If the ship channel is affected by storm surge, that pushes water up all the bayous, causing flooding throughout the city...

I THINK this is the case, but not at all sure..
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#5658 Postby jasons2k » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:46 pm

Yeah, it is concerning - as Jeff Lindner said on the call this morning, he expects the ultimate landfall to be just right of the current guidance and NHC track. This morning he was targeting Sabine Pass. He said if the NHC shifted left, he would too. Let's just hope the models keep on shifting west but that's a pretty tall order with the trough eventually eroding the ridge towards landfall.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#5659 Postby mpic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:46 pm

Mattie wrote:
pablolopez26 wrote:Image

This is amazing! I agree with the earlier poster that 5 day cones should be done away with. At this point, as most people hit wunderground.com and get this graphic, the Louisiana coastline stands down until the next advisory; the next advisory issues and it's a swing back to Louisiana, (please input any 2 states of your choice) and pretty soon you have no time to do anything because a tank of gas won't last long sitting on the interstate in bumper to bumper traffic and you haven't even left the city you are evacuating from. This is so stressful! Mother Nature has a mind of her own and we just seem to "chase the rabbit". Be safe everyone where ever this may go.


This is exactly why I am here at storm2k. I'm glad for the 5-day cone because...call me crazy or whatever, I leave for every storm 4 days out because of the lack of evac plans. I watch the cone every time. I left for Gustav and will again.
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Re:

#5660 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 2:49 pm

KWT wrote:Eye appears to be starting to clear out now somewhat though the inner eywall still circulating within the larger eyewall. Also seems to me that Ike has lifted a tuch more probably on a 280 type heading now...though I'm very hesitant with that idea as the outer eyewall is taking over and the inner eyewall is a bit messy.


Was just about to post on this. It indeed appears that the moat is starting to hollow out around what little convective structure there is left near what used to be the eye. This is quite apparent on high-res vis imagery...I'll post a loop here in a bit.

The EWRC process took about 48 hours to complete with Bertha, which was unusally long. This one with Ike is sort of a messy affair since the smaller inner core got dusrupted by passage over land, and the outer convective band is still partially over Cuba. My SWAG is that it probably will be some 18-24 hours or so until the process completes and the outer convective band to consolidate into a respectable eye wall.
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