ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[caneman]

Wouldn't that be something if the Euro from last week - when was it, Wednesday? - turned out to be right after all. Crazy, crazy.

Anyway, let's see when happens overnight. Like AFM said, west for now, then they will trend east again.

Be even crazier if the Euro track of a Hatteras to NYC track verified from a few days back, but I wouldn't bet money on that.

Well said my friend, well said.

[beachlover]

I hope this is the appropriate place to ask a question about the WaveWatch III model. I don't have a lot of experience with this model and was hoping some of you more knowledgable can tell me how reliable it is? I was just really surprised to see how high the waves were so far east of the storm, particularly with the intensity forecasts now on the NHC track. I know when a Cat 5 gets pushing water up through the Gulf it can make huge waves even if it falls apart as it approaches the coast. But Ike is, so far, not even IN the gulf yet, so I'm surprised to see such large waves in the forecast for almost the entire northern gulf for Wednesday and Thursday. I can't imagine what it will forecast if Ike gets stronger than currently forecast. Any enlightenment you can give me on whether this is a useful model, reliable, not reliable, etc., is greatly appreciated. Thank you.

[eaglegirl]

Then I suppose the whole coast of the GOM should declare states of emergency because the NHC has already said, TODAY, that they don't know where Ike is going or which portion of the GOM will be impacted...

To the best of my knowledge, everyone has.

It must be done to deploy and stage the needed resources well in advance of landfall.

Everyone learned some very difficult painful lessons with Katrina.

Here is Florida's:

Executive Order #08-187

Presidential Emergency Declaration approved
FEMA-3293-EM

[attallaman]

It is going to be very interesting to see when the turn northward actually occurs later this week. As I have mentioned quite a few models are showing it offshore now which would bring Ike into NE/TX and LA. Wouldn't need to happen much earlier to make landfall happen in central to SE/LA.

That is why everyone along the GC needs to watch Ike carefully

Or maybe even Mobile, AL. I'm sorry I couldn't resist.

Ohh now that wasn't nice . . . Ha Ha

So my neighbor to the east can you tell me tonight that I can let my guard down here in Biloxi? That Ike might plan to take a hike towards Texas instead and won't be making a run my way toward the casinos?

[Duddy]

TO ALL TO WHOM THESE PRESENTS SHALL COME:

I, RICK PERRY, Governor of Texas, do hereby certify that Hurricane Ike poses a threat of imminent disaster along the Texas Coast and in the counties of Anderson, Angelina, Aransas, Archer, Austin, Bee, Bell, Bexar, Bowie, Brazoria, Brazos, Brooks, Calhoun, Cameron, Cass, Chambers, Cherokee, Collin, Colorado, Comal, Dallas, Denton, DeWitt, Ellis, El Paso, Fort Bend, Franklin, Galveston, Goliad, Grayson, Gregg, Hardin, Harris, Harrison, Henderson, Hidalgo, Hill, Hopkins, Hunt, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kaufman, Kenedy, Kleberg, Lamar, Lavaca, Liberty, Lubbock, Matagorda, McLennan, Montgomery, Nacogdoches, Navarro, Newton, Nueces, Orange, Panola, Parker, Polk, Potter, Randall, Refugio, Sabine, San Augustine, San Jacinto, San Patricio, Shelby, Smith, Starr, Tarrant, Titus, Tom Green, Travis, Trinity, Tyler, Van Zandt, Victoria, Waller, Walker, Webb, Wharton, Willacy, Williamson, Wise and Wood beginning September 7, 2008 and continuing.

THEREFORE, in accordance with the authority vested in me by Section 418.014 of the Texas Government Code, I do hereby declare a state of disaster based on the existence of such threat and direct that all necessary measures both public and private as authorized under Section 418.017 of the code be implemented to meet that threat.

As provided in Section 418.016, all rules and regulations that may inhibit or prevent prompt response to this threat are suspended for the duration of the state of disaster.

In accordance with the statutory requirements, copies of this proclamation shall be filed with the applicable authorities.

IN TESTIMONY WHEREOF, I have hereunto signed my name and have officially caused the Seal of State to be affixed at my Office in the City of Austin, Texas, this the 8th day of September, 2008.

RICK PERRY
Governor

Attested by:
ESPERANZA “HOPE” ANDRADE
Secretary of State

[TTheriot1975]

When are the next models coming out?

[cycloneye]

Next is the 00z run:

GFS at 11:30 PM
CMC at 1:00 AM
GFDL at 1:30 AM
UKMET at 1:30 AM
HWRF at 1:30 AM
NOGAPS at 2:00 AM
EURO at 2:30 AM

All times Eastern

18z GFDL / HWRF shortly

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL landfall near Corpus Christi:

WHXX04 KWBC 082329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.1 79.2 270./12.0
6 21.4 80.3 283./ 9.9
12 21.6 81.4 282./11.4
18 22.0 82.4 290./ 9.6
24 22.6 83.4 302./10.6
30 23.0 84.1 302./ 7.9
36 23.6 85.0 304./10.0
42 24.0 85.6 298./ 6.5
48 24.4 86.4 300./ 8.8
54 24.9 87.2 302./ 8.4
60 25.1 88.2 282./ 9.8
66 25.3 89.3 280./10.3
72 25.5 90.5 280./10.9
78 25.9 91.6 287./10.3
84 26.2 93.0 285./13.1
90 26.7 94.1 291./11.0
96 27.1 95.4 289./11.9
102 27.6 96.5 294./11.1
108 28.1 97.3 306./ 8.9
114 29.0 98.0 319./10.5
120 29.9 98.5 330./10.4
126 30.9 98.7 350./10.0

[Wx_Warrior]

Wild shift from 12z (galv) to 18z (corpus).

[KWT]

Looks like if Ike tracks a little slower then progged it will still latch onto the trough given the way the GFDL pulls up Ike in the last 24hrs of the run.

[gatorcane]

Well looks like some models are trending even more south tonight....looks like residents of Mexico south of Texas may need to start paying attention...hopefully trends will continue and US will dodge Ike.

Ike just does not want to turn north....

[gatorcane]

Landfall TX/MX border

talk about a shift south here?!? Well looks like the trend is Texas friend at the moment....

[Wx_Warrior]

Just need to avoid that 'north/trough' turn...KEEP IKE AWAY!!!

PSA: Turning away storms since 1852

[teal61]

I don't know folks, I am glad there are pros to try and sort this out but from the 00Z gfs landfalling near Pensacola to the 18Z being near Brownsville from where I sit that's one heck of a swing in 18 hours. I need to see the runs being a bit more steady before jumping on the GFS bandwagon. And as the GFS goes, so goes the GFDL and HWRF. I would love to know what they talked about on the conf call this afternoon reference the models.

As a side note he looks to be tracking a bit north of the new forecast points also.

[Duddy]

I don't understand how the models could possibly think Mexico. Strong storms move further North as the get closer to the western Gulf of Mexico. It's fact. It would be the 1st of it's kind. Not probable.

[cycloneye]

Big shift west by HWRF now landfall just south of Coupus Christi.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Big shift west by HWRF now landfall just south of Coupus Christi

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

another big west shift.....

just a few more shifts like that and Ike may be a Mexico issue.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yeah, 18z HWRF nearly same as GFDL...South of Corpus then north eventually.

I'm sure 0z will have the 'eastern' bias.

[Brent]

Well looks like some models are trending even more south tonight....looks like residents of Mexico south of Texas may need to start paying attention...hopefully trends will continue and US will dodge Ike.

Ike just does not want to turn north....

Moving WNW finally at 8pm.

I just cannot buy Mexico either but then again I couldn't buy Cuba from the ENE and then the Caribbean either...

[jasons2k]

No suprise there. If the GFS swings back east, so will the GFDL and HWRF...