ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

No suprise there. If the GFS swings back east, so will the GFDL and HWRF...

I wonder if it will though?

[jasons2k]

No suprise there. If the GFS swings back east, so will the GFDL and HWRF...

I wonder if it will though?

AFM and Jeff seem to think so. It does make one wonder how much longer will this shift W before it ends though. However, with Ike finally turning and plotting north of the guidance, I think the models will get a clue now.

[shah8]

Quick and easy test. Both GFDL and HWRF says that Ike should be headed WEST or SW for the next six hours. If that doesn't happen, it's a pretty good indication that the interpolation of the 18z is bunk.

[tailgater]

I'll have to see a few runs in the same general area before I become a believer. Maybe with a couple more south and west runs, Ike will run the entire Isle of Cuba the jump the Yucatan Channel and die over the peninsula.

[Sabanic]

No suprise there. If the GFS swings back east, so will the GFDL and HWRF...

I wonder if it will though?

AFM and Jeff seem to think so. It does make one wonder how much longer will this shift W before it ends though. However, with Ike finally turning and plotting north of the guidance, I think the models will get a clue now.

So you're saying if he plots north of the Forecast track that should bring him further N along the coast?

That could make for a very interesting next few days.

[dhweather]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I just don't see this storm being a central or lower Texas coast, I believe we're going to see a shift back right in the models overnight.

[HouTXmetro]

Probably not overnight but gradually near landfall. I think one more W shift might be instore before the models start to settle in where the current NHC track is or maybe slightly North.

BTW, Unofficial Forecast and My cone of Uncertainty still stands from Corpus Christi to Lake Charles, Louisiana.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's called 'the trough'.

Models change every run. I would rather see Ike pointed at me now (4 days out) than later but so be it. We will be prepared either way.

Ike was supposed to recurve, then hit florida, then recurve to Florida panhandle, then go down the spine of cuba. Guess what? Didn't happen. Only Ike and the great man upstairs know.

[TTheriot1975]

Wll HouTXMetro...I think that would put him at your backdoor if he were to come in north of the NHC right now

[sphelps8681]

8:00 pm advisory:

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

[Sabanic]

It's called 'the trough'.

Models change every run. I would rather see Ike pointed at me now (4 days out) than later but so be it. We will be prepared either way.

Ike was supposed to recurve, then hit florida, then recurve to Florida panhandle, then go down the spine of cuba. Guess what? Didn't happen. Only Ike and the great man upstairs know.

Bingo!

[Dean4Storms]

Quick and easy test. Both GFDL and HWRF says that Ike should be headed WEST or SW for the next six hours. If that doesn't happen, it's a pretty good indication that the interpolation of the 18z is bunk.

Agree, both the GFDL and HWRF have the SW portion of the LLC over the NE corner of the Isle of Youth.

[Ixolib]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I just don't see this storm being a central or lower Texas coast, I believe we're going to see a shift back right in the models overnight.

Yep... I'd be equally as surprised if the models get truly honed in on a westerly or southwesterly solution.
Given the month we're in, I'm thinking when all's said and done, the models will have come well north and perhaps even east of north - with more time to watch that happen than some are suggesting. IOW, I believe it'll hook north and east a couple of days (+/-) from landfall on the central or eastern NGOM. Same disclaimer applies as DH posted above...

[jinftl]

It is encouraging that the consensus of the models show that it is during the next 72 hours or so that Ike is actually going to make his most wnw or nw push....look how almost all of the models bend back to the west later in the period.

And what has been happening with Ike for days now? The close-in track has continuously shifted south as the more northern, long-awaited turn has failed to materialize. (Granted, the movement is now wnw but, even still, at 6pm the NHC said the heading is 275.....he will need to start moving at a heading more like 300 to make any of the model forecast points in the next few days).

I would not be surpised if the tracks trend further south..when the close-in push north shown in the tracks above is not as great as shown. The northern coast of the Yucatan really needs to keep and eye on this trend.

[cycloneye]

It is encouraging that the consensus of the models show that it is during the next 72 hours or so that Ike is actually going to make his most wnw or nw push....look how almost all of the models bend back to the west later in the period.

And what has been happening with Ike for days now? The close-in track has continuously shifted south as the more northern, long-awaited turn has failed to materialize. (Granted, the movement is now wnw but, even still, at 6pm the NHC said the heading is 275.....he will need to start moving at a heading more like 300 to make any of the model forecast points in the next few days).

I would not be surpised if the tracks trend further south..when the close-in push north shown in the tracks above is not as great as shown. The northern coast of the Yucatan really needs to keep and eye on this trend.

Per 00:00 UTC BAM guidance,its moving now at 295 degrees.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 80.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 77.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 75.2W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

[HouTXmetro]

I think NHC track will shift towards Corpus next run.

[Stormcenter]

It's called 'the trough'.

Models change every run. I would rather see Ike pointed at me now (4 days out) than later but so be it. We will be prepared either way.

Ike was supposed to recurve, then hit florida, then recurve to Florida panhandle, then go down the spine of cuba. Guess what? Didn't happen. Only Ike and the great man upstairs know.

Bingo!

Actually you rather Ike pointing at you 5 days out. Anything under that and you better get packing.

[sphelps8681]

I new at reading maps but does the 18z GFDL show 73kt winds near Dallas. Is that a Category 1 Hurricane? Could that be correct. Usually they go to TS/TD, don't they?

[jinftl]

If that heading of 295 continues, maybe the trend south will halt.....doesn't mean a trend north is in the works....just that Ike seems to be following model consenus as of now. "Now" being the key word.

It is encouraging that the consensus of the models show that it is during the next 72 hours or so that Ike is actually going to make his most wnw or nw push....look how almost all of the models bend back to the west later in the period.

And what has been happening with Ike for days now? The close-in track has continuously shifted south as the more northern, long-awaited turn has failed to materialize. (Granted, the movement is now wnw but, even still, at 6pm the NHC said the heading is 275.....he will need to start moving at a heading more like 300 to make any of the model forecast points in the next few days).

I would not be surpised if the tracks trend further south..when the close-in push north shown in the tracks above is not as great as shown. The northern coast of the Yucatan really needs to keep and eye on this trend.

Per 00:00 UTC BAM guidance,its moving now at 295 degrees.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 80.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 77.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 75.2W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

[PTPatrick]

At this time frame(about 4.5 5 days) NHC had Rita pointed at Brownsville as did most models. Even the 3 day forecast before landfall was near matagorda Bay. Point is...we know how easy it is this time of year for a storm to get picked up right at the Texas coast and pulled north or north east. I wouldnt put any stock into a landfall south of Houston just yet.