ATL: IKE Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Target Corpus Christi!!!! I think we have a consensus now. I do not expect any furth shifts south after this. Maybe a little north.

Unofficial Forecast

[wxman57]

Wxman, how does that play out in terms of storm surge for Houston coast?

If Ike goes inland by Matagorda then there won't be any significant surge into Galveston Bay. There would be a setup tide prior to Ike's arrival caused by big waves moving into the coast and strong onshore flow. Such a setup tide could reach 3-5 feet. But no surge as the eye comes ashore.

[fasterdisaster]

Target Corpus Christi!!!! I think we have a consensus now. I do not expect any furth shifts south after this. Maybe a little north.

Unofficial Forecast

We've had a "consensus" for days. Also the models will likely move north possibly as far as north of Matagorda bay before moving south a little bit again. Unofficial obviously.

[jinftl]

And a trend...

Target Corpus Christi!!!! I think we have a Consensus now.

[Cape Verde]

00Z models are ALL south of Matagorda Bay. Very encouraging for Houston:

Selfish as hell of me, but I want to watch college football on Saturday instead of chasing my satellite dish down the street.

I know. Karma. I shouldn't get too happy yet.

[TampaFl]

800pm position: hugging the coastline

[HurricaneRobert]

Is Ike still expected to grow and strengthen? What are the chances for a Carla-scenario?

[fasterdisaster]

Ike is insane. He's gone from Cape Hatteras to Corpus Christi in days.

[jinftl]

Karma totally allows you to feel encouraged though!

00Z models are ALL south of Matagorda Bay. Very encouraging for Houston:

Selfish as hell of me, but I want to watch college football on Saturday instead of chasing my satellite dish down the street.

I know. Karma. I shouldn't get too happy yet.

[HouTXmetro]

Target Corpus Christi!!!! I think we have a consensus now. I do not expect any furth shifts south after this. Maybe a little north.

Unofficial Forecast

We've had a "consensus" for days. Also the models will likely move north possibly as far as north of Matagorda bay before moving south a little bit again. Unofficial obviously.

There has not been a landfall consensus until now.

[mpic]

00Z models are ALL south of Matagorda Bay. Very encouraging for Houston:

Selfish as hell of me, but I want to watch college football on Saturday instead of chasing my satellite dish down the street.

I know. Karma. I shouldn't get too happy yet.

I washed and waxed my truck this weekend to give Ike a curse!

[jinftl]

Ike hasn't...the models have....Ike has been moving in a pretty much a straight line for days....we and our models have been providing all the noise...kind of a crazy 'mr magoo' image..

Ike is insane. He's gone from Cape Hatteras to Corpus Christi in days.

[Sabanic]

Has landfall of a hurricane ever been nailed down on a 5 day forecast? Curious to know.

[wxman57]

Target Corpus Christi!!!! I think we have a consensus now. I do not expect any furth shifts south after this. Maybe a little north.

Unofficial Forecast

We've had a "consensus" for days. Also the models will likely move north possibly as far as north of Matagorda bay before moving south a little bit again. Unofficial obviously.

There has not been a landfall consensus until now.

I think we've see a strong model consensus all along, but they've all been wrong. The only reason there is a consensus on landfall is because now it's close enough to reach land in 5 days. There were all tightly-packed together toward Houston last night. So much for that.

Ike's clearly going farther and farther west, and this may not be the last south shift.

[wxman57]

Has landfall of a hurricane ever been nailed down on a 5 day forecast? Curious to know.

Good example would be Gustav this year, or Lili in 2002. The 5 day point for Lili near landfall was within about 20 miles.

[SoupBone]

Has landfall of a hurricane ever been nailed down on a 5 day forecast? Curious to know.

Ummmm...Gustav?

[Ivanhater]

I think we've see a strong model consensus all along, but they've all been wrong. The only reason there is a consensus on landfall is because now it's close enough to reach land in 5 days. There were all tightly-packed together toward Houston last night. So much for that.

Ike's clearly going farther and farther west, and this may not be the last south shift.

The consensus has toured the entire Gulfcoast leading every part of every state in the bullseye and still has more to go..next stop..Mexico!

[HouTXmetro]

I'm more shocked that the Hurrican has traveled this far West and South from the starting location.

[Cyclenall]

what are the unique circumstances?

It would be historic for sure if Ike keeps going west. Nothing like that has ever occurred under these circumstances.

Hurricane Ike's formation position and movement for the first 4 days. No hurricane or major hurricane has ever started out there and ended up going into Cuba and/or the Caribbean, let alone near the Gulf coast. South Texas would be amazing.

[baitism]

Ike is starting to clear the mountains in central Cuba. This should help his circulation some.