ATL: IKE Discussion

[wafbwx]

I think we've see a strong model consensus all along, but they've all been wrong. The only reason there is a consensus on landfall is because now it's close enough to reach land in 5 days. There were all tightly-packed together toward Houston last night. So much for that.

Ike's clearly going farther and farther west, and this may not be the last south shift.

Has been going farther and farther west, but running a little north of guidance tonight. Not so sure current movement has a big impact on eventual landfall...I'm more interested in timing. Is the ridge strong enough later this week to push this quickly into south Texas or does it get hung up in the central/western Gulf and wait for the weekend trof to turn it north? I buy the southern trend to a certain degree, but have a feeling the models are starting to trend a little too far south. Not that I need to tell you, but I wouldn't relax yet if I were in Houston.

[jinftl]

Ike became a came at 21.6N, 52.7W....now he is at 21.7N, 80.2W......wow..that is what you call a westward track overall

I'm more shocked that the Hurrican has traveled this far West and South from the starting location.

[cycloneye]

[Weatherfreak000]

800pm position: hugging the coastline

This motion is quite odd... at this rate Ike will be gaining alot more latitude and be further East when it exits Cuba..


The Plus side is obviously more weakening...but possibly a negative would be a slowdown?

[cycloneye]

Center is Offshore doing wobbles.

[jasons2k]

Yes, while the trend is certainly encouraging for those of us here in Houston, with Ike now tracking to the north of the plots (first time since last week? ever?) I think the trend will finally cease.

I fully expect the NHC to shift left at 11PM based on the latest guidance. That shouldn't surprise anyone. But I expect everything (models and NHC) to slowly creep back north over the next few days as the models nail down the timing of the incoming trough and its influence on the ridge. This just seems to be the same hoops we jump through almost every time we have a Texas threat with a ridge to the north and an incoming trough close to landfall.

Basically, the models thus far are doing what Air Force Met laid out earlier today and I see no reason yet to think otherwise.

I"ll stick with my prediction of Corpus to Sabine Pass for now. Rita part II, but this time, further down the coast.

[6SpeedTA95]

Latest VDM says Ike no longer has concentric eyewalls, looks like it could be go time.

The storm is still very close to land and the mountains of cuba are still affecting the inflow to the storm.

Folks I beg you to get on google earth and fly over the entire country of Cuba. There are no mountains anywhere but the extreme southeaster tip. The entire center and western part of the country has hills that are between 300 and 500 feet high. Try google earth and see for your self. I too had this misconception until Ike came along and I took the time to fly over Cuba via Google Earth

I am familiar with Cuba. You seem to forget that tropical storms/hurricanes take in air from hundreds of miles away not just in their immediate vicinity.

[srainhoutx]

Yes, while the trend is certainly encouraging for those of us here in Houston, with Ike now tracking to the north of the plots (first time since last week? ever?) I think the trend will finally cease.

I fully expect the NHC to shift left at 11PM based on the latest guidance. That shouldn't surprise anyone. But I expect everything (models and NHC) to slowly creep back north over the next few days as the models nail down the timing of the incoming trough and its influence on the ridge. This just seems to be the same hoops we jump through almost every time we have a Texas threat with a ridge to the north and an incoming trough close to landfall.

Basically, the models thus far are doing what Air Force Met laid out earlier today and I see no reason yet to think otherwise.

I"ll stick with my prediction of Corpus to Sabine Pass for now. Rita part II, but this time, further down the coast.

Agreed. And needs to be posted again.

[Cape Verde]

I was breathing a sigh of relief from my Houston location.

I've been at this board too long to think I'm suddenly out of the clear because of a model run a few days out.

I feel better. I'm going to enjoy it for tonight, sleep a bit easier, knowing full well that tomorrow might make me the bullseye again.

I'm going to humor myself for the moment. There's plenty of time for me to get skeered in the next two or three days.

I'm suffering from hurricane fatigue and I haven't even had to pick up a chain saw.

So that's my story for tonight, and I'm sticking to it.

For tonight.

[Brent]

Yes, while the trend is certainly encouraging for those of us here in Houston, with Ike now tracking to the north of the plots (first time since last week? ever?) I think the trend will finally cease.

I fully expect the NHC to shift left at 11PM based on the latest guidance. That shouldn't surprise anyone. But I expect everything (models and NHC) to slowly creep back north over the next few days as the models nail down the timing of the incoming trough and its influence on the ridge. This just seems to be the same hoops we jump through almost every time we have a Texas threat with a ridge to the north and an incoming trough close to landfall.

Basically, the models thus far are doing what Air Force Met laid out earlier today and I see no reason yet to think otherwise.

I"ll stick with my prediction of Corpus to Sabine Pass for now. Rita part II, but this time, further down the coast.

I completely agree, I've had a strong Rita vibe with this since yesterday. I don't see this going to Mexico or South Texas.

[srainhoutx]

I was breathing a sigh of relief from my Houston location.

I've been at this board too long to think I'm suddenly out of the clear because of a model run a few days out.

I feel better. I'm going to enjoy it for tonight, sleep a bit easier, knowing full well that tomorrow might make me the bullseye again.

I'm going to humor myself for the moment. There's plenty of time for me to get skeered in the next two or three days.

I'm suffering from hurricane fatigue and I haven't even had to pick up a chain saw.

So that's my story for tonight, and I'm sticking to it.

For tonight.

Best post of the night.

[wxman57]

I was breathing a sigh of relief from my Houston location.

I've been at this board too long to think I'm suddenly out of the clear because of a model run a few days out.

I feel better. I'm going to enjoy it for tonight, sleep a bit easier, knowing full well that tomorrow might make me the bullseye again.

I'm going to humor myself for the moment. There's plenty of time for me to get skeered in the next two or three days.

I'm suffering from hurricane fatigue and I haven't even had to pick up a chain saw.

So that's my story for tonight, and I'm sticking to it.

For tonight.

I hear ya! I'll sleep better tonight, too. Looking forward to a week of NO STORMS out there after Ike. You hear me, tropics!!!

[HouTXmetro]

I think a Rita-ish scenario may play out also, but I will wait until tomorrows model runs. If they are further South even more come this time tomorrow I'm going to concede a Corpus to Mexico hit.

[Mattie]

I think we've see a strong model consensus all along, but they've all been wrong. The only reason there is a consensus on landfall is because now it's close enough to reach land in 5 days. There were all tightly-packed together toward Houston last night. So much for that.

Ike's clearly going farther and farther west, and this may not be the last south shift.

Has been going farther and farther west, but running a little north of guidance tonight. Not so sure current movement has a big impact on eventual landfall...I'm more interested in timing. Is the ridge strong enough later this week to push this quickly into south Texas or does it get hung up in the central/western Gulf and wait for the weekend trof to turn it north? I buy the southern trend to a certain degree, but have a feeling the models are starting to trend a little too far south. Not that I need to tell you, but I wouldn't relax yet if I were in Houston.

I agree - it's all in timing. Mexico seems so far from initial tracks and my UNOFFICIAL opinion would be backing it up north just a bit. This has been the craziest of storms.

[tolakram]

Building more convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

[KatDaddy]

I am hoping to wake up tomorrow with models pointing into NE Mexico. Yes hurricane fatigue is real. Gustav wiped me out and then RTB at the same time was very exhausting. Being 40 and 4 days in the Texas sun will exhaust anyone. I do not want to put up storm panels Wednesday but that will be the day if the Houston-Galveston areas still have a significant threat.

[smw1981]

I was breathing a sigh of relief from my Houston location.

I've been at this board too long to think I'm suddenly out of the clear because of a model run a few days out.

I feel better. I'm going to enjoy it for tonight, sleep a bit easier, knowing full well that tomorrow might make me the bullseye again.

I'm going to humor myself for the moment. There's plenty of time for me to get skeered in the next two or three days.

I'm suffering from hurricane fatigue and I haven't even had to pick up a chain saw.

So that's my story for tonight, and I'm sticking to it.

For tonight.

Haha...well you just enjoy your night!

[Brent]

Building more convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white


http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5550/tempdr9.gif

Definitely looks better, and the core remains well-organized.

[funster]

I was breathing a sigh of relief from my Houston location.

I've been at this board too long to think I'm suddenly out of the clear because of a model run a few days out.

I feel better. I'm going to enjoy it for tonight, sleep a bit easier, knowing full well that tomorrow might make me the bullseye again.

I'm going to humor myself for the moment. There's plenty of time for me to get skeered in the next two or three days.

I'm suffering from hurricane fatigue and I haven't even had to pick up a chain saw.

So that's my story for tonight, and I'm sticking to it.

For tonight.

I hear ya! I'll sleep better tonight, too. Looking forward to a week of NO STORMS out there after Ike. You hear me, tropics!!!

It would be wrong to accuse you of -removed- it away from Houston but the models could swing back again. It's still five days out. Plus, if this does pan out Corpus gets slammed

[HouTXmetro]

Posting seems unusually slow tonight with a HUrricane poised to enter the Gulf. Have people lost interest that quick? NW-Gulfers where are you, Houstonians, anyone?