ATL: IKE Discussion

[Cape Verde]

It would be wrong to accuse you of -removed- it away from Houston but the models could swing back again. It's still five days out. Plus, if this does pan out Corpus gets slammed

I don't think I can be accused of -removed- other than to jump on any sign that I won't get it.

I'm a California boy, transplanted to the Gulf Coast nearly 30 years ago. I was in Lafaette, LA, when Andrew made its second landfall, and the branches broke my briick exterior. I was about five miles from the eye. I had always wanted to experience a hurricane. Now I never want to experience another one.

Sure, I've been graxed by a few here in Houston over the past few years, but it's been the fringee. The worst has been some rotten fences being blown down.

I've had the drect blow of a Cat 3 hurricane experience. It wasn't nearly as glamorous as I had thought it might be. It was frickin' scary.

So, I'll just wish this one on a place where nobody lives. King Ranch would be nice. Several hundred people live there and they mostly have access to Lear Jets to get them out of there. The cows can fend for themselves.

[pablolopez26]

I definately understand about Hurricane Fatigue, watching this storm and not knowing what its going to do and being at the mercy of mother nature can really take a toll on you.

I just hope Ike makes up its mind and hurries on in and does its deed.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html

Moving right along the forecasted path.

[gatorcane]

I'm thinking the NHC shifts the track left at this advisory given how it is much more right of all available guidance.

[quindar]

Houston here, I live about 2 miles west of downtown in the Montrose neighborhood. I've been watching Ike since back on 9/3/2008, when he was forecast to become a Bahamas storm, and / or an east coast of FL storm, or northeast storm. The climatological models that long ago didn't suggest he would ever make it to the Gulf of Mexico.

I'm planning on monitoring intensely for the pure science fun of it until Ike (is that 5-star General Ike or Ike Turner -- either one is a tough namesake for this storm?) is west of the western end of Cuba, then taking a look at where the models are trending. I'm out of the Zip-Zones for evacuation, but I'm also up on the 2nd floor of a duplex in which none of the windows are storm resistant.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm waiting for the end game when things will really pick up. I'll stick with my previous forecast - strong Cat 3, perhaps borderline 4 hitting somewhere SW of Galveston.

One thing that has really amazed me with this storm is model worship. I've seen people say this model says this so they change their ideas, then that model says that so they change them again, etc.

And I've even seen where some have indicated that overall the models are doing a good job w/Ike. I respectfully disagree with anyone who has this sentiment. With the models swinging over the last few days from a recurve to Miami to the MGC to Houston and now to S. Texas, looks like they don't have a clue beyond the day at hand.

Up here in N. Texas today, we've had cloudiness, widespread rain to our west, and a cool front approaching. I feel pretty certain that this will weaken the ridge mid to late week and that Ike will eventually respond to all of this and begin a more northward movement for something along the lines of Rita II or Alicia II.

And as for him weakening, the wind shear that kept Gustav from ramping up doesn't seem to be in the Gulf this time and Ike's more westward track will take him over some pretty tepid water. I'd be surprised if this isn't a major - or perhaps even an intense - hurricane approaching Texas later in the week.

[Sanibel]

Good example of the power of synoptics where Hanna scoots north like a quick noreaster and Ike rolls through as a category 4 right behind it by only a few days.

[Texas Snowman]

Two other things real quick.

First, Ike coming to Texas? That seems logical since Ike (Dwight D. Eisenhower was born in Denison, Texas).

And second, while a little bit off topic, I saw today where OJ is back in court.

I seem to remember that once upon a time when he was in court, a certain storm (Opal?) went beserk in the Gulf and roared to Cat 5 status before hitting the Fla. panhandle as a major.

Deja vu all over again? I hope not.

[pablolopez26]

I agree, the NHC will adjust their track this evening.

I also agree that this is about as far south as the models are going to take Ike. I believe Corpus needs to watch out as still does Houston, and Port Arthur.

[wxman57]

I agree, the NHC will adjust their track this evening.

I also agree that this is about as far south as the models are going to take Ike. I believe Corpus needs to watch out as still does Houston, and Port Arthur.

New NHC track is inland over Corpus Christi. Looks good to me.

[Brent]

[Red_Fish]

NHC shifted south to Corpus Christi.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.sh ... e#contents

[pablolopez26]

I'd be surprised if this isn't a major - or perhaps even an intense - hurricane approaching Texas later in the week.

Id say Category 2-3 is my best guess. Nothing stronger, Cuba gave it a hard hit.

Thank God for Cuba. And im saying that for New Orleans and for wherever Ike goes.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking the NHC shifts the track left at this advisory given how it is much more right of all available guidance.

I will take a guess that the NHC will be slightly North of Corpus. I doubt they will do a much more dramatic shift south of Corpus just yet.

[HurricaneRobert]

I definately understand about Hurricane Fatigue, watching this storm and not knowing what its going to do and being at the mercy of mother nature can really take a toll on you.

I just hope Ike makes up its mind and hurries on in and does its deed.

Dolly, Edouard, Gustav, Ike. Don't forget how Dean was aimed right at SE Texas for a while. Go somewhere else stupid storms.

[gatorcane]

alright looking at the new cone...which has shifted south yet again (of no surprise of course)...for those in the US it won't take much of a left shift now for it to go South of The United States.

For those in Mexico, well you don't want to see any more right shifts obviously...

Will Ike refuse to go north yet again?

[pablolopez26]

AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS. <--- Per the NHC

Wow... Im simply amazed at this storm.

[fci]

(from the 11 PM advisory):

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

Just curious why we need to monitor the progress of Ike here in South Florida?

[Texas Snowman]

No doubt, Cuba has weakened Ike, but that is exactly what the models were forecasting in the last couple of days, isn't it? And they were still forecasting a major.

Unlike Gus, Ike will have little shear to deal with (apparently), will track south of the cooler waters of the northern Gulf, and will have nearly four days once he comes off Cuba until he hits the WGOM.

Given his history, unless something occurs to disrupt Ike on his trip across the Gulf, I really don't see a Cat 2 at landfall - 3 or better.

[HouTXmetro]

Now the wobble watches begin. Not going to take much to put this North towards Houston or South towards Bronsville.