ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sure be interesting to see if the 0Z GFS continues the course change down to LaPesca. Eye-balling the size of the three day cone, we'd be out of the cone altogether aimed at LaPesca.

[HouTXmetro]

To my understanding, the 6Z models don't mean much. Last nights GFS was recurving into SELA/AL

[haml8]

Nice to know I'm not the only Texan here.

No, not the only texan-even though I'm north Texas. I have family interests in Denham Springs - 12 miles east of
Baton Rouge - so I watch closely because I lived there for most of my life and sister and parents are still there.

Sabanic probably meant the only non-Texan here. He's in Alabama. There's so many Texans in here, if you swung a cat by the tail, you'd hit about 3 dozen.

We are here lurking in the bushes... speaking of which I need to go trim some trees just in case

[jasons2k]

To my understanding, the 6Z models don't mean much. Last nights GFS was recurving into SELA/AL

Typo fixed

[Ed Mahmoud]

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

For the center to catch the Yucatan, it would have to turn due West about now. The 0Z NAM actually showed a bit of a WSW motion leaving Cuba, so while it is unlikely, it isn't impossible.

[latemodel25]

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

mexicos in the cone. florida isnt? i guess they put fl in there because of the keys? gusty winds. those gusty winds might mess with peoples pink pelicans (yard art).. no offense to those with them. (yard art)

[3ABirdMan]

Nice to know I'm not the only Texan here.

No, not the only texan-even though I'm north Texas. I have family interests in Denham Springs - 12 miles east of
Baton Rouge - so I watch closely because I lived there for most of my life and sister and parents are still there.

Sabanic probably meant the only non-Texan here. He's in Alabama. There's so many Texans in here, if you swung a cat by the tail, you'd hit about 3 dozen.

Not me, though - I'd duck!

You are NOT alone!

[ROCK]

I've asked this before but I don't think anyone responded - with Lowell's forecasted track in the EPAC, what effect could that have on Ike's track?

I would think it would be northward.

May indicate that the trough, in the end, will turn Ike to the right just before ladfall. I still don't see Ike outrunning the trough and subsequent ridge erosion & plowing into the S. Texas coast. JMO.

0Z models tonight will be very interesting.

Jason I am going to agree with you on that....holding a ridge like that into MX / STX seems far fetched if not improbable.

[alicia83]

I'm here, in Austin. Just been lurking off and on cause I suffered extreme burnout from Gustav watching. Used to live 60 miles inland from Matagorda. Got the scare of my life when Rita was going eani, meani, mini, moe along the Texas coast. One of the Houston weathercasters said Rita was coming in at Matagorda as she worked her way north. She was a CAT 5 at that point, and I heard we could expect CAT 4 winds in our town. I got the heck out of there in a hurry. House was surrounded by large trees. No place to really be safe in the advent of a tornado either.

I really hope Ike stays out of Houston, though I'd hate to see anywhere else get it. I think as soon as the NHC can nail this down, it's going to take the edge off a lot of folks, except those in the direct path.

[MGC]

After reading the 11pm discussion, and observing Ike's cloud structure this evening, I am getting concerned that Ike will likely strengthen beyond what the NHC is forecasting as Ike trasverses the GOM. Ike, according to the NHC, is redeveloping his core, this feature is parmount for a hurricane to become a major one. Ike should continue to slowly intenisify as he parallels the Cuban coast, provided the hurricane remains off shore. Looks like the poor people that just went though Gustav will get hit by Ike. Thankfully, Ike will not be as intense as Gustav was. With the upper enviroment forecast to be primed for Ike to intensify, we could possibly be witnessing a hurricane far stronger than the 100KTS the NHC is calling far at landfall......MGC

EDIT: Please refresh my memory, how big and bad was Carla at landfall?

Of course the above opinion is MGC's and not an official forecast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've asked this before but I don't think anyone responded - with Lowell's forecasted track in the EPAC, what effect could that have on Ike's track?

I would think it would be northward.

May indicate that the trough, in the end, will turn Ike to the right just before ladfall. I still don't see Ike outrunning the trough and subsequent ridge erosion & plowing into the S. Texas coast. JMO.

0Z models tonight will be very interesting.

Jason I am going to agree with you on that....holding a ridge like that into MX / STX seems far fetched if not improbable.

Just looking at forecast ridges and troughs, 0Z NAM holds the ridge steady, the PacNW trough digs, but barely advances Eastward.

[jinftl]

Nope, Yucatan not in the cone now...pretty far away to have to be watching something....hmmmm

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

mexicos in the cone. florida isnt? i guess they put fl in there because of the keys? gusty winds. those gusty winds might mess with peoples pink pelicans (yard art).. no offense to those with them. (yard art)

[ROCK]

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

For the center to catch the Yucatan, it would have to turn due West about now. The 0Z NAM actually showed a bit of a WSW motion leaving Cuba, so while it is unlikely, it isn't impossible.

NAM? Ed you have gone as low as you can possibly go.. ..when you start looking at the NAM for tropical systems then the term "grasping at straws" comes to mind.....so come, on get with the program...

[cycloneye]

After reading the 11pm discussion, and observing Ike's cloud structure this evening, I am getting concerned that Ike will likely strengthen beyond what the NHC is forecasting as Ike trasverses the GOM. Ike, according to the NHC, is redeveloping his core, this feature is parmount for a hurricane to become a major one. Ike should continue to slowly intenisify as he parallels the Cuban coast, provided the hurricane remains off shore. Looks like the poor people that just went though Gustav will get hit by Ike. Thankfully, Ike will not be as intense as Gustav was. With the upper enviroment forecast to be primed for Ike to intensify, we could possibly be witnessing a hurricane far stronger than the 100KTS the NHC is calling far at landfall......MGC

Of course the above opinion is MGC's and not an official forecast.

They say the intensity forecast may be conservative.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE
OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.

[ROCK]

quote="ROCK"]

I've asked this before but I don't think anyone responded - with Lowell's forecasted track in the EPAC, what effect could that have on Ike's track?

I would think it would be northward.

May indicate that the trough, in the end, will turn Ike to the right just before ladfall. I still don't see Ike outrunning the trough and subsequent ridge erosion & plowing into the S. Texas coast. JMO.

0Z models tonight will be very interesting.

Jason I am going to agree with you on that....holding a ridge like that into MX / STX seems far fetched if not improbable.[/quote]

Just looking at forecast ridges and troughs, 0Z NAM holds the ridge steady, the PacNW trough digs, but barely advances Eastward.[/quote]



good lord Ed!!! its the NAM...

[Cookiely]

OK the models are coming full circle with mexico and yucatan. By Friday they will start in the keys and continue up florida to al ms la and so on and so forth. When the NHC says they don't know where this is going, I believe them. Its a wait and see game and its not over yet.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[latemodel25]

After reading the 11pm discussion, and observing Ike's cloud structure this evening, I am getting concerned that Ike will likely strengthen beyond what the NHC is forecasting as Ike trasverses the GOM. Ike, according to the NHC, is redeveloping his core, this feature is parmount for a hurricane to become a major one. Ike should continue to slowly intenisify as he parallels the Cuban coast, provided the hurricane remains off shore. Looks like the poor people that just went though Gustav will get hit by Ike. Thankfully, Ike will not be as intense as Gustav was. With the upper enviroment forecast to be primed for Ike to intensify, we could possibly be witnessing a hurricane far stronger than the 100KTS the NHC is calling far at landfall......MGC

EDIT: Please refresh my memory, how big and bad was Carla at landfall?

Of course the above opinion is MGC's and not an official forecast.

so is that for certain ike wont be as strong as gustav? thats good news.

[wx247]

After reading the 11pm discussion, and observing Ike's cloud structure this evening, I am getting concerned that Ike will likely strengthen beyond what the NHC is forecasting as Ike trasverses the GOM. Ike, according to the NHC, is redeveloping his core, this feature is parmount for a hurricane to become a major one. Ike should continue to slowly intenisify as he parallels the Cuban coast, provided the hurricane remains off shore. Looks like the poor people that just went though Gustav will get hit by Ike. Thankfully, Ike will not be as intense as Gustav was. With the upper enviroment forecast to be primed for Ike to intensify, we could possibly be witnessing a hurricane far stronger than the 100KTS the NHC is calling far at landfall......MGC

EDIT: Please refresh my memory, how big and bad was Carla at landfall?

Of course the above opinion is MGC's and not an official forecast.

Hey MGC...I am confused. If you are forecasting for it to be "far stronger" than 100 KTS, then wouldn't it be worse than Gustav. Could you clarify? Maybe I have been staring at the screen too long.

[3ABirdMan]

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


Had anyone noticed the YUCATAN has been added to this statement.....hmmm....early clue that track shift south coming tomorrow?

For the center to catch the Yucatan, it would have to turn due West about now. The 0Z NAM actually showed a bit of a WSW motion leaving Cuba, so while it is unlikely, it isn't impossible.

NAM? Ed you have gone as low as you can possibly go.. ..when you start looking at the NAM for tropical systems then the term "grasping at straws" comes to mind.....so come, get with the program...

You ARE aware straws and Shiner Bach DON'T MIX?