ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Ixolib]

Yes, that trof/area should be the one to turn it if he does...

If this were July or early August, we wouldn't be seeing this kind of trof sweeping in from the NW.

BUT... since it's ~mid-September, this is the very reason why so few Atlantic storms --- this time of year --- ever make it west to TX or MX. I'm still thinking the trof makes Ike turn kinda quick in the NGOM to a more N or NE track and eventual landfall. And he may even, at the same time, find a weakness in the ridge.

These are the kind of wx patterns that our old buddy Nash Roberts in N.O. used to outline so well with his paper charts and colored markers. Kinda makes ya miss the good old days...

Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Camille:


Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Andrew:
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/video/makeASX.php?title=www.wwltv.com/anniversary/clips02.wmv&adurl=adcontent/Wwl/20080930/wwlIO689913GulfStates20080903.wmv

Nash and his final weathercast at WWL:
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/video/makeASX.php?title=www.wwltv.com/anniversary/clips21.wmv

[Ed Mahmoud]

NAM starting. Won't get to landfall, but might show hint of how it sees NW trough interacting with ridge that has protective Westerlies over HOU area.

[Sabanic]

Yes, that trof/area should be the one to turn it if he does...

If this were July or early August, we wouldn't be seeing this kind of trof sweeping in from the NW.

BUT... since it's ~mid-September, this is the very reason why so few Atlantic storms --- this time of year --- ever make it west to TX or MX. I'm still thinking the trof makes Ike turn kinda quick in the NGOM to a more N or NE track and eventual landfall. And he may even, at the same time, find a weakness in the ridge.

These are the kind of wx patterns that our old buddy Nash Roberts in N.O. used to outline so well with his paper charts and colored markers. Kinda makes ya miss the good old days...

Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Camille:


Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Andrew:
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/video/makeASX.php?title=www.wwltv.com/anniversary/clips02.wmv&adurl=adcontent/Wwl/20080930/wwlIO689913GulfStates20080903.wmv

Thanks for sharing that. That's very interesting.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I know it's not adding anything to what people don't already know, but it's my first and probably last post of the day so I'll say it anyway.

Most of the models (like those posted by CycloneEye above) and even the steadfast Euro, are curving Ike just prior or after crossing the coast. And like Jeff (I believe) said, I've just seen too many Gulf canes bend right while rounding a ridge or approaching a trough to let my guard down. Too many to name actually. This is going to be a very close call for the upper TX coast. TX/LA line wouldn't even surprise me.

Oh, and yes definitely this is an amateur opinion and turn to the NHC for official information....haha

[Wx_Warrior]

As expected, NHC shifts to Corpus.

[gatorcane]

I know it's not adding anything to what people don't already know, but it's my first and probably last post of the day so I'll say it anyway.

Most of the models (like those posted by CycloneEye above) and even the steadfast Euro, are curving Ike just prior or after crossing the coast. And like Jeff (I believe) said, I've just seen too many Gulf canes bend right while rounding a ridge or approaching a trough to let my guard down. Too many to name actually. This is going to be a very close call for the upper TX coast. TX/LA line wouldn't even surprise me.

Oh, and yes definitely this is an amateur opinion and turn to the NHC for official information....haha

well the NHC track shows no such curve into a weakness to the north...

at this time that High appears to be strong....

[Ed Mahmoud]

As expected, NHC shifts to Corpus.

Between CRP and Port Lavaca, if I am eyeballing that right.


A few more advisories, and it may point at La Pesca. Or Morgan City.

[TSmith274]

Yes, that trof/area should be the one to turn it if he does...

If this were July or early August, we wouldn't be seeing this kind of trof sweeping in from the NW.

BUT... since it's ~mid-September, this is the very reason why so few Atlantic storms --- this time of year --- ever make it west to TX or MX. I'm still thinking the trof makes Ike turn kinda quick in the NGOM to a more N or NE track and eventual landfall. And he may even, at the same time, find a weakness in the ridge.

These are the kind of wx patterns that our old buddy Nash Roberts in N.O. used to outline so well with his paper charts and colored markers. Kinda makes ya miss the good old days...

Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Camille:


Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Andrew:
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/video/makeASX.php?title=www.wwltv.com/anniversary/clips02.wmv&adurl=adcontent/Wwl/20080930/wwlIO689913GulfStates20080903.wmv

Nash and his final weathercast at WWL:
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/video/makeASX.php?title=www.wwltv.com/anniversary/clips21.wmv

Hah what a great find!

For what it's worth, local station just threw up the VIPIR... takes Ike to around Brownsville, TX

[Ed Mahmoud]

NAM ends just before landfall, apparently near the border.

Western trough digs some as vort maxes drop down backside, but doesn't move much West.

Ridge over Gulf erodes/edges Eastward only slightly, and extrapolating, Ike would continue a WNW course roughly parallel the Rio Grande, until it finally starts recurving near Laredo, if it remains a stacked cyclone that long.

[Shawee]

Yes, that trof/area should be the one to turn it if he does...

If this were July or early August, we wouldn't be seeing this kind of trof sweeping in from the NW.

BUT... since it's ~mid-September, this is the very reason why so few Atlantic storms --- this time of year --- ever make it west to TX or MX. I'm still thinking the trof makes Ike turn kinda quick in the NGOM to a more N or NE track and eventual landfall. And he may even, at the same time, find a weakness in the ridge.

These are the kind of wx patterns that our old buddy Nash Roberts in N.O. used to outline so well with his paper charts and colored markers. Kinda makes ya miss the good old days...

Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Camille:


Nash and his coverage on Hurricane Andrew:
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/video/makeASX.php?title=www.wwltv.com/anniversary/clips02.wmv&adurl=adcontent/Wwl/20080930/wwlIO689913GulfStates20080903.wmv

Nash and his final weathercast at WWL:
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/video/makeASX.php?title=www.wwltv.com/anniversary/clips21.wmv

Hah what a great find!

For what it's worth, local station just threw up the VIPIR... takes Ike to around Brownsville, TX

Nash's his marks-a-lots would kick Bob's Viper 9 any day of the week! Unfortunately they are probably all dried up, but would still win.

I worked with one of Nash's son for a while and fished with Nash, Jr. He is a local pro-met and fishing guide.
Great family... Nash Sr. is still kicking.

[mattpetre]

I worry about where this will really end up, but I do expect SOMEONE to pay up in some Shiners when we are back to normal I deserve something for going out on this limb and even being this right at this point. I don't think there were many others willing to make that jump 7 days ago...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I told my wife I'd take a break from hurricane watching until this became more of a threat to the GOM or our area, but a bet with Shiner involved is too hard to turn down. I'm putting up my 10+ days map right here and now and willing to take anyone in the Galleria area of Houston (I know you are Ed) out for a few beers after the storm or even better I'll happily go let you buy me a few... So here's my forecast track 10+ days out and I'm going to stick to it no matter how painful it may get 5 or 6 days from now

So here it is, anything in the extremely small cone (at us landfall) gets me many beers and even more headaches in other ways (I really don't want to see this and I realize it's just a strange form of -removed-).

*THIS IS THE POSTER'S IMAGE AND NOT IN ANY WAY TIED TO AN ACTUAL FORECAST PATH OR NHC OPINION*
*IT IS ONLY AN AMATEUR'S ATTEMPT AT PREDICTIVE MODELLING VERY FAR INTO THE FUTURE*

[Sanibel]

GFDL has pegged this one so well that if it takes it to Texas it will probably end up there. Since there's enough of a south trend and west under the ridge to this track GFDL should still be keen. Now it will probably recurve in front of Texas now that I've said that. But if we are to go by what GFDL has done so far Texas is almost a given. It's just a matter of where at this point.

[jinftl]

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.


That is new!!! NHC thinking track further south? Laying groundwork for track shift tomorrow?

[AL Chili Pepper]

I know it's not adding anything to what people don't already know, but it's my first and probably last post of the day so I'll say it anyway.

Most of the models (like those posted by CycloneEye above) and even the steadfast Euro, are curving Ike just prior or after crossing the coast. And like Jeff (I believe) said, I've just seen too many Gulf canes bend right while rounding a ridge or approaching a trough to let my guard down. Too many to name actually. This is going to be a very close call for the upper TX coast. TX/LA line wouldn't even surprise me.

Oh, and yes definitely this is an amateur opinion and turn to the NHC for official information....haha

well the NHC track shows no such curve into a weakness to the north...

at this time that High appears to be strong....

yes, but the Euro, CMC (laugh laugh), GFDL, and HWRF all do...albeit after crossing the coast. The GFS keeps him moving west, but that model has been all over the place lately. Just my 2 cents.

[ROCK]

18Z DGEX, which nobody ever uses for tropical cyclones, shows landfall Saturday near Port Lavaca.


I still have, IMHO, a 50/50 chance that Texas is spared, either by a continued bend Southward of the models, or the trough moving into the Pac NW having been underestimated, and hooking Ike back to Louisiana or points East.


Was it over when the Germans bombed the Alamo?

Nothing wrong with hanging on to what you believe but eventually you have to let go.

Let it go Ed....we forgive you.....

[ROCK]

[quote="mattpetre"]I worry about where this will really end up, but I do expect SOMEONE to pay up in some Shiners when we are back to normal I deserve something for going out on this limb and even being this right at this point. I don't think there were many others willing to make that jump 7 days ago...

[quote="mattpetre"]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I told my wife I'd take a break from hurricane watching until this became more of a threat to the GOM or our area, but a bet with Shiner involved is too hard to turn down. I'm putting up my 10+ days map right here and now and willing to take anyone in the Galleria area of Houston (I know you are Ed) out for a few beers after the storm or even better I'll happily go let you buy me a few... So here's my forecast track 10+ days out and I'm going to stick to it no matter how painful it may get 5 or 6 days from now

So here it is, anything in the extremely small cone (at us landfall) gets me many beers and even more headaches in other ways (I really don't want to see this and I realize it's just a strange form of -removed-).




Matt I remember this....seesm like yesterday... good call my friend....

[mattpetre]

I believe we are about to se IKE moving a little north of guidance. I don't lIKE that much and I'm afraid it may mean the beginning of a shift NE in the next model runs. Chance he may stIKE the coast closer to Victoria in my opinion now. Models will see the current motion and switch on the morning runs (they are sometimes a little slow.)

[Wx_Warrior]

That's why I don't wobble watch.

Wobble up, down, left or right...When it gets into the GOM, is the CORRECT time to watch models.

[Jagno]

:uarrow: That's why I don't wobble watch.

Wobble up, down, left or right...When it gets into the GOM, is the CORRECT time to watch models.

Sorry but I found your post funny since this is in fact the MODELS DISCUSSION thread and Ike is certainly not in the GOM.

Admitting it is the first step to recovery: You like to watch every move just as the rest of us do when you're in that darn cone. LOL

[dwg71]

if west trend continues, east coast of florida is back in play