ATL: IKE Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

That's something I picked up on here a couple of days ago in some of the discussions, that Ike will likely be a monster storm in terms of his size in the GOM.

Certainly appears that will be the case given his current Sat presentation.

I think that in the end, this will pile a lot of water up on somebody.

[vbhoutex]

I've asked this before but I don't think anyone responded - with Lowell's forecasted track in the EPAC, what effect could that have on Ike's track?

I would think it would be northward.

May indicate that the trough, in the end, will turn Ike to the right just before ladfall. I still don't see Ike outrunning the trough and subsequent ridge erosion & plowing into the S. Texas coast. JMO.

0Z models tonight will be very interesting.

Jason I am going to agree with you on that....holding a ridge like that into MX / STX seems far fetched if not improbable.

Though I don't like the implications of that fact at all, I have to agree also. Though it is not unheard of at this time of year, it would be very unusual. Most W GOM storms are starting to round/erode a ridge by the time they get into the extreme W GOM at this time of year.

[Sanibel]

Close but no cigar. August 23 to September 5th Hurricane #11 1933:

[vbhoutex]

Bastardi is thinking a Carla type hit on the middle Tx coast.

I think a Carla like storm is coming, but I'm sticking with my own personal - and totally unofficial - forecast of a hit SW of Galveston.

That area has had some serious September hits in the past, but it has been a long, long time. Think the sand in the hourglass is running out there with Ike.

Hush your mouth son!!!! They'll hear you!!!!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have a wager. If this goes into Mexico I will not post for 2 weeks. I know I shall get snarky 'you promise?' type remarks, but I JUST COVERED THE BASES SO NO SNARKINESS FO YOU. I just don't think there is any chance this will go to Mexico. The models will start shifting north soon, then settle at a medium, because they have made the trough as possibly futile as they could and the ridge as strong as possible. So there you have it, if it makes landfall SOUTH of the TexMex border I will stop posting for 2 weeks.

Beer is a better bet medium, 'coz you get to drink some of it.

Only works with fellow SE Texas posters. I hope we do an S2K SETX meet-up. I think it would be cool to drink a cold one with Wxman57.


More of a model thread thing, but through 54 hours, GFS ridges and troughs look similar to NAM. I actually topped off the gas tank and got bottled water, and discussed sending my wife away Wednesday if the models shift back the wrong way, but I'm feeling better now than early this morning. My composure was briefly shaken, but I'm feeling better.

[fasterdisaster]

Close but no cigar. August 23 to September 5th Hurricane #11 1933:

I bet there wasn't a trough in place for that storm though.

[mattpetre]

IKE is going to drive us crazy before the week is up. He is no dolly. You can win Tina Turner tickets on the front page of the KHOU website... hope IKE isn't thinking about beating on her again.

[Sanibel]

Correct time frame September 10-22 1919. Track iffy:

[Sanibel]

Storm #3 1910. September 5-15:

[MGC]

To clarify, stronger than 100KTS at landfall along the Texas or even perhaps Mexican coast. I'm starting to wonder if Ike could make landfall in south Texas now. The way the models seem to be trending left they must be having a difficult time with the ridge to Ike's north. If conditions in the upper atmosphere are like the were for Katrina than another hurricane approaching the scope of Carla is not out of the question. Speaking of Carla, I remember as a child my Mother discussing with my Father about the cloud cover in New Orleans was the outflow from Carla.....MGC

[Sanibel]

The only storm I could find that crossed Cuba in September and went to Mexico. Storm #4 1888. August 31 - September 8:

[fasterdisaster]

The only storm I could find that crossed Cuba in September and went to Mexico. Storm #4 1888. August 31 - September 8:

1. 1888
2. Hardly 'north Mexico'
3. Positive there was no trough
4. Completely out of Ike's cone
5. The only one ever

Hence, my wager that it is statistically near impossible (near) for this to go to Mexico

[Wx_Warrior]

Should be statistically impossible for Ike to reach the GOM, correct? He would be the 1st since 1850 to reach it forming from such a high lat in the Atlantic.

[Sanibel]

I guess if you start around Cuba, no mattter where it formed, the archive shows there's a few that made it to south Texas and one that made it to Mexico at this time of year. So not really unprecedented.

Need sleep. 'Night.

[fasterdisaster]

Should be statistically impossible for Ike to reach the GOM, correct? He would be the 1st since 1850 to reach it forming from such a high lat in the Atlantic.

First to reach this far west actually, I think a couple made it, though I might be confusing it with all the other climatology maps that've been posted. But I wouldn't say that was statistically impossible because there was a huge ridge of high pressure swooping down and it was a possibility from day one. (albeit not the most likely)

[fasterdisaster]

South Texas is not unprecedented, but for the direction Ike is moving and forecasted to move at this point in time, Mexico would be.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS is in Mexico, halfway between La Pesca and Brownsville. The trend continues. Not stopping, not swinging back. Anything is possible, and things can change in the next 4 days, but this smells to me like a Mexico storm. So far, BRO/SPI might still see hurricane winds, (and surge) but any further shifts South, this could be a clean miss (well, I can't see outer bands completely missing Deep South Texas at this point as big as Ike is getting).


I'm guessing rest of reliable globals follow suit, and 6Z GFS will be near the 0Z, as it seems, in my amateur opinion, the magnitude of the model swings is coming down.

Be another day before it becomes more certain.

[alicia83]

Sanibel or faster, would you provide a link for those old tracks?

Thanks in advance!

[shah8]

Ed, I'd bet against it for the reason that the stars do have to be somewhat aligned for this to play out. At least three atmospheric players have to behave.

[fasterdisaster]

Frankly, GFS is always smoking something. I won't say it never has any contribution but I don't know why it's lumped in with models like GFDL, HWRF, Euro, and even UKMET.