ATL: IKE Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

this does not have a good chance at significant intensification in the next few hours. A large part of its circulation is interacting with land

[THead]

Although looking a bit ragged, Ike still has a very symmetrical look, and with that small eye, he could ramp up quickly and be one scary looking beast once he gets into the gulf. Although, he looks to be crossing Cuba again in basically the same place Gustav did, right? Gustav got tore up a bit more than expected also didnt he?

I'll be watching Ike until he drops his last molecule of H2O.

Amateur observations

Gustav had about 20kts of shear while going over Cuba so that greatly added to it being disrupted. Ike won't have that 20kts of shear so while it will get disrupted some I don't expect it to be disrupted any where near as much as Gustav. Also once in the Gulf Ike will have a few days over very warm waters with almost a perfect upper level environment. IMO theres no reason why it can't at the very least get back up to Major status if not 4 or even make a run at 5. Also looking at Cuban radar Ike's radar signature is greatly improving over the past half hour or so!

That is a scary prospect, because wasn't Ike maintaining Cat 3 status coming across the Atlantic while enduring an alledged 20-25kt shear? Hate to see what he can accomplish in such favorable conditions.

I have to say too, is Ike about the best hurricane name that's come along in a while? It just sounds tough. Might as well be Spike....just hoping it hits a very sparsely inhabited location.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This has a very small innercore...Maybe no more then 50 nmi across based on radar and IR satellite. Once it moves another .2 or so degree's into that open space with a lot more water, I expect this to strengthen I little. A super small system like this can also weaken very very fast once it moves over land. So, I fully expect a 55 knot tropical storm when this inners the gulf.

Its already strengthening. Maybe the winds haven't come up yet but the past 3 or 4 center passes have shown that the pressure is falling which means its strengthening.

[dwg71]

i expect it to emerge from Cuba tonight as a TS. 11pm forecast had it as a CAT 2

[Derek Ortt]

This has a very small innercore...Maybe no more then 50 nmi across based on radar and IR satellite. Once it moves another .2 or so degree's into that open space with a lot more water, I expect this to strengthen I little. A super small system like this can also weaken very very fast once it moves over land. So, I fully expect a 55 knot tropical storm when this inners the gulf.

Its already strengthening. Maybe the winds haven't come up yet but the past 3 or 4 center passes have shown that the pressure is falling which means its strengthening.

no it is not

the pressure has not changed 1mb during the last 12 hours. Was 965mb at 5 A.M. yesterday and is 965 now

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Ok you are a pro and I am not however the facts don't add up with what you are saying! At 2am the NHC had the pressure at 967mb:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

A recon pass this morning at 0618z showed a pressure of 967mb:

000
URNT12 KNHC 090640
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/06:18:20Z
B. 21 deg 57 min N
081 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2809 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 092 deg 069 kt
G. 008 deg 020 nm
H. 967 mb
I. 11 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3042 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1409A IKE1 OB 07
MAX FL WIND 69 KT N QUAD 06:12:40 Z

The next pass at 0708z this morning showed a pressure of 966mb:

000
URNT12 KNHC 090743
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/07:08:30Z
B. 21 deg 58 min N
081 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2798 m
D. 54 kt
E. 151 deg 021 nm
F. 234 deg 053 kt
G. 143 deg 008 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 11 C/ 3048 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C6
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1409A IKE1 OB 11
MAX FL WIND 69 KT N QUAD 06:12:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60 KT SW QUAD 07:10:00 Z

The latest pass at 0759z this morning showed a pressure of 965mb:

000
URNT12 KNHC 090816
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/07:59:20Z
B. 22 deg 01 min N
081 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2772 m
D. 53 kt
E. 149 deg 5 nm
F. 239 deg 053 kt
G. 143 deg 018 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 11 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E27/15/12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1409A IKE1 OB 15
MAX FL WIND 69 KT N QUAD 06:12:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND WIND 64KT NW QUAD 08:01:30 Z
RAGGED EYE RADAR PRESENTATION

Through out the day yesterday the pressure had gone up because it was weakening. It is now restrengthening and the last 3 fixes have shown that the pressure is dropping.

[ELF62]

This has a very small innercore...Maybe no more then 50 nmi across based on radar and IR satellite. Once it moves another .2 or so degree's into that open space with a lot more water, I expect this to strengthen I little. A super small system like this can also weaken very very fast once it moves over land. So, I fully expect a 55 knot tropical storm when this inners the gulf.

Its already strengthening. Maybe the winds haven't come up yet but the past 3 or 4 center passes have shown that the pressure is falling which means its strengthening.

no it is not

the pressure has not changed 1mb during the last 12 hours. Was 965mb at 5 A.M. yesterday and is 965 now

Thank you for clearing that up. I thought I was missing something.

[dwg71]

pretty substantial move south for 4am nhc track, south of corpus landfall at 27N 97.5W four days.

[TampaFl]

5:00am position - hugging the south coast of Cuba:

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This is still what EVERY ONE needs to remember!

IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

[dwg71]

discussion says they are still on the north side of model guidence.

[Cookiely]

The only storm I could find that crossed Cuba in September and went to Mexico. Storm #4 1888. August 31 - September 8:

I believe that was a run I saw on the fsumm5merge model and I thought it was hilarious. Who knew.

[mpic]

Every year is the same back and forth (and with good reason), but this year it is a little ironic that we are having an election at the same time with a lot of flip flop in both politics and weather fore casting.

[dwg71]

70kts was a generous give by nhc. In reality its more like 60kts at the time. GFS should start rolling in here soon,if it its still tx,mex border for the third straight run it would be the most consistant its been.

[wxman57]

06Z runs farther south. 12z will be out in a few hours:

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Here is a checklist for any one in Ike's path.

Hurricane Check List

Hurricanes can be dangerous killers. Planning ahead can reduce the chances of injury or major property damage.
Before a Hurricane

* Know where you will go if you have to evacuate.

* Plan your evacuation route.

Contact the local emergency management office or other disaster preparedness organization, and ask for the community hurricane preparedness plan. This plan should include information on the safest evacuation route and nearby shelters. This information can also be obtained by visiting Monroe County's Hurricane Preparation web pages.

* Have disaster supplies on hand in the event of a storm, or if you have to evacuate:

Flashlight and extra batteries
Portable, battery-operated radio and extra batteries
First aid kit and first aid manual (click here for a first aid checklist)
Food (non-perishable) and water (one gallon of water per person per day)
Non-electric can opener
Essential medicines
Baby supplies (diapers, non-perishable milk, baby food)

If you are ordered to evacuate, you should also take:

Personal items, such as toilet paper, toothbrush, towel, tampons, soap
Books, small games and other small entertainment items
Important papers and valuables in a waterproof container
Names and addresses of relatives, friends and other important contacts
Clothing and bedding
Cash and credit cards
Sturdy shoes

* Make arrangements for pets.

Pets may not be allowed into emergency shelters for health and space reasons. Contact your local humane society for information on local animal shelters.

* Make plans for your boat.

Decide what to do with your boat if a storm hits. Choices include taking it out of the path of danger, securing it on a trailer and leaving it parked in a safe area, securing it in a marina or mooring it in a "safe" harbor. If you decide to leave the Keys with your boat, make sure to leave early because after the advent of storm force winds, trailers will no longer be allowed on the highway.

* Protect valuable documents and property, including:

Birth certificates
Marriage certificates
Social security cards
Passports
Immunization records
Bank account and credit card numbers
Photos/video of your home and valuable property
Vehicle titles
Military service papers
Wills
Insurance policies, including personal, homeowners and disaster insurance
Deeds
Stocks
Bonds
Irreplaceable photos
Computer back up of important electronic data
Jewelry

* Make sure that all family members know how to respond after a hurricane. Teach family members how and when to turn off gas, electricity, and water.
* Teach children how and when to call 911, police, or fire department and which radio station to tune to for emergency information.
* Protect your windows.

Permanent shutters are the best protection. A lower-cost approach is to put up plywood panels. Use 1/2 inch plywood--marine plywood is best--cut to fit each window. Remember to mark which board fits which window. Pre-drill holes every 18 inches for screws. Do this long before the storm.

* Trim back dead or weak branches from trees. Trim coconuts from palms so they don't become deadly missiles during a storm.
* Check into disaster insurance.

If you do not already have flood and windstorm insurance, you should consider getting it. Remember: Windstorm insurance policies are not sold when a storm threatens, so think far enough ahead. You can find out about the National Flood Insurance Program through your local insurance agent or emergency management office. There is normally a 30-day waiting period before a new policy becomes effective. Homeowners polices do not cover damage from the flooding that accompanies a hurricane.

* Develop an emergency communication plan.

In case family members are separated from one another during a disaster (a real possibility during the day when adults are at work and children are at school), have a plan for getting back together. Ask an out-of-state relative or friend to serve as the "family contact." After a disaster, it's often easier to call long distance. Make sure everyone in the family knows the name, address, and phone number of the contact person.

* Take pictures of your house and property.

Take photos and/or video of your house, it's contents and the surrounding property. This will make it easier to prove loss to your insurance company following landfall.

Hurricane Watches and Warnings

Click here for information about storm classifications

A hurricane watch is issued when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 36 hours. A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions (winds of 74 miles per hour or greater, or dangerously high water and rough seas) are expected in 24 hours or less.
During a Hurricane Watch

* Listen to local radio or television stations for hurricane progress reports and emergency orders.
* Check emergency supplies.
* If you have not already done so, fuel your car.
* If you have not already done so, stock up on water, non-perishable food, water and ice.
* Bring in outdoor objects such as lawn furniture, toys, and garden tools and anchor objects that cannot be brought inside.
* Secure buildings by closing shutters and/or boarding up windows. Remove outside antennas.
* Turn refrigerator and freezer to coldest settings. Open only when absolutely necessary and close quickly.
* Fill bathtubs, washing machines, sinks and other containers with clean water.
* Review evacuation plan.
* Moor boat securely or move it to a designated safe place. Use rope or chain to secure boat to trailer. Use tie downs to anchor trailer to the ground or house.

During a Hurricane Warning

* Listen to local radio and television stations constantly for official instructions.
* If you are in a mobile home, check tie downs, then evacuate immediately to a safe location.
* Store valuables and personal papers in a waterproof container on the highest level of your home, or take them with you if you evacuate.
* Avoid elevators.

If you are at home:

* Stay inside, away from windows, skylights, and glass doors.
* Keep your emergency supply of flashlights and extra batteries handy. Avoid using open flames, such as candles and kerosene lamps, as a source of light.
* If power is lost, turn off major appliances to reduce power "surge" when electricity is restored.

If officials indicate evacuation is necessary:

* Secure your home by unplugging appliances and turning off electricity and the main water valve.
* Tell someone outside of the storm area where you are going.
* If time permits, and you live in an identified surge zone, elevate furniture to protect it from flooding or better yet, move it to a higher floor.
* Gather pre-assembled emergency supplies, warm protective clothing, blankets and sleeping bags. Review directions to the nearest shelter.
* Leave as soon as possible. Avoid flooded roads and watch for washed-out bridges.

After the Hurricane passes

* If you evacuated, return home only after authorities advise that it is safe to do so. Click here to see more information about Hurricane re-entry.
* If you evacuated, and your house has been vacant for a period of time, enter with caution.
* Stay tuned to local radio and/or television for information. Emergency officials will announce when you may return to your home, or when it is safe to venture outside
* Help injured or trapped persons if you can do so without injury to yourself. Give first aid where appropriate.
* Do not move seriously injured persons unless they are in immediate danger of further injury. Call for help if possible, otherwise wait and help will come to you.
* Avoid loose or dangling power lines and report them immediately if possible to the power company, police, or fire department.
* Beware of snakes, insects, and animals driven to higher ground by flood water.
* Open windows and doors to ventilate and dry your home.
* Check refrigerated foods for spoilage.
* Drive only if absolutely necessary and avoid flooded roads and washed-out bridges.
* Use telephone only for emergency calls.
* Take pictures of the damage, both to the house and its contents and for insurance claims.

[apocalypt-flyer]

The 06z point towards the similar area where Dolly made landfall then.

[KWT]

Yep those models really aren't a good thing, I'd rather the GFS shifted a little to the north because at least that areas not very well populated really, the areas the GFS has honing in is very populated and also just been hit this season by a fairly decent hurricane as well...

This hurricane has the loop current ahead and I can imagine Ike really strengthening over that.

[Meso]

I'm wondering how large Ike is going to end up in the gulf, I was just looking at the sat loops and cause of the eclipse it jumps from 3am - 8am, and in that time his size seems to have grown considerably.

[KWT]

Its still got its tiny core intact however I notice with some fairly deep convection developing over what probably is the eyewall.

Structure no doubt is probably improving steadily but the core is still too close to land to really ramp itself up...just wait for the gulf!