ATL: IKE Discussion

[TTheriot1975]

Deltadog...is your thinking still that this will be north of the forecast now? I saw your forecast yesterday...SWLA...just wondering what it is today?

[Weatherfreak14]

Here are some latest shots I have taken of IKE.







Here is a 3D image of IKE's eye, not to impresssive due to its to far away from the radar so its way up in the atmosphere.

[Sabanic]

KWT in what ways if any does the strength of a storm affect the steering? Does a stronger storm steer more westerly? Whereas a weaker storms' steering is affected by less?

[Myersgirl]

Maybe he is looking for the narrowest part of Cuba to cross

[HURAKAN]

Eye visible.

[KWT]

Weatherfreak14, wow those are really impressive radar shots, I take it thats from the very high resolution sites that are being brought out?

Anyway that shows the eyewall really well and also, the structure still looks decent and it does look like a cat-1, evn though looks aren't always a good thing to go by!

[cycloneye]

ai9d,plane is acending,so mission is over.

[Weatherfreak14]

Weatherfreak14, wow those are really impressive radar shots, I take it thats from the very high resolution sites that are being brought out?

Anyway that shows the eyewall really well and also, the structure still looks decent and it does look like a cat-1, evn though looks aren't always a good thing to go by!

No its images ive shot from GRlevel 2 Radar System that i have, it is very nice to have and obtaining these shots i ocasionally analize for reasearch.

[KWT]

Looks very good Hurakan, the northern quadrant isn't too hot but then again its overland and has been for a while now so thats to be expected. Anyway as you said the eye is quite obvious there.

VDM's suggesting that Ike is a little to the right of the NHC forecast plots and with a small eye they should be generally pretty accurate, its not a big deal right now but it may make a slight difference down the line who knows?

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Sandy,if this track continues,the eye will pass just east of Pinar del Rio?

[KWT]

Looks like Ike is heading right towards the most narrow part of Cuba, heading very close the exact same area Gustav hit less then 2 weeks ago, really not good news, hurricane force winds is really not what they need there now.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, if it continues west-northwest, it's likely to hit over the western Havana province. This area was devastated in 2004 by Hurricane Charley.

[jasons2k]

So much for a straightforward forecast.

Oddly it's more complicated now than it was yesterday. The model spread is greater. The GFS and its usual suspects are south and the NHC has obviously weighted in that direction. I'm still not ready to bite on a solution this far south though. The GFS is still too inconsistent for me. We'll see what happens over the next 36-48 hours, but I would not be surprised at all to see further revisions in the track/thinking of where Ike makes landfall.

[funster]

So much for a straightforward forecast.

Oddly it's more complicated now than it was yesterday. The model spread is greater. The GFS and its usual suspects are south and the NHC has obviously weighted in that direction. I'm still not ready to bite on a solution this far south though. The GFS is still too inconsistent for me. We'll see what happens over the next 36-48 hours, but I would not be surprised at all to see further revisions in the track/thinking of where Ike makes landfall.

Yes, we still don't know yet what country Ike will land in.

[Texas Snowman]

See where the UKMET and the HWRF are showing Ike taking a sharp turn to the NW as he approaches WGOM. As I opined yesterday, I think that the combined effect of Lowell to the west and the ridge eroding to the north will cause Ike to hit as a Cat 3/borderline 4 SW of Galveston.

I still believe the other models will trend this way over time.

Call me stubborn, I guess.

[KWT]

I'm not sure either Jasons, the NHC have to go with the GFDL as its done very well thus far with Ike but I wouldn't be too surprised if the models lift up a little to the north again.

The other thing Hurakan is that area has got hit by heavy rains from Gustav and also probably from Fay as wellso even if Ike does go east of where Gus hit I'm willing to bet there will be bad floodingin the region.

[ROCK]

So much for a straightforward forecast.

Oddly it's more complicated now than it was yesterday. The model spread is greater. The GFS and its usual suspects are south and the NHC has obviously weighted in that direction. I'm still not ready to bite on a solution this far south though. The GFS is still too inconsistent for me. We'll see what happens over the next 36-48 hours, but I would not be surprised at all to see further revisions in the track/thinking of where Ike makes landfall.

so much for a consensus... EURO at 2pm today dont be surprised if it further up the coast than last night. It sniffs the NE hook, it does well with ridges, and its been the trend setter since the beginning.......I see no reason to disregard it now.....JMO...

[jasons2k]

Yeah - I just posted this in the model thread:

Here's what I don't get. The GFS is way south, no curve. Same with the GFDL. But its twin brother, HWRF, responds to the trough and hooks right at the end like the UKMET, etc. (*throws arms up*). Pure madness at this point.

[ROCK]

I'm not sure either Jasons, the NHC have to go with the GFDL as its done very well thus far with Ike but I wouldn't be too surprised if the models lift up a little to the north again.

The other thing Hurakan is that area has got hit by heavy rains from Gustav and also probably from Fay as wellso even if Ike does go east of where Gus hit I'm willing to bet there will be bad floodingin the region.

GFDL has been following the EURO all over the map......The GFDL follows the GFS, The HWRF follows the GFDL......add all that up the models follow the EURO....


BTW- I made a "D" in college logic....